thundercleetz

As I mentioned in my last post, I think we take that for granted living in Maryland. May not be the same in the South and less progressive regions of the country. But then again, Anthony Brown won the governor primary purely based on endorsements, despite there being a much better candidate (Mizuer). We'll know for sure after Super Tuesday. Nevada was supposed to be a region where endorsements didn't matter but Hillary still won. The Republican situation is just odd. While Trump's popularity is similar to Sanders in anti-establishment rhetoric, it is completely opposite in terms of logic. Sanders support comes from people who have done research and see Sanders as a fundamentally better candidate than Hillary. I don't think Trump voters are any more informed, they simply see him in the media, like the anti-establishment sentiment, don't fact check any of his claims and are maybe fear-driven.

Her reactions have not been impressive by any means. If a Republican reacted in the same manner the media would probably chastise that candidate as a racist. Nonetheless, Hillary still has all the major endorsements. You cannot understate the importance of that. We live in a fairly progressive region where social media and alternative news sources have an extensive reach. We are surrounded by information which allows us to make informed decisions. It is not like that in all areas of the country. Many people are time limited where they cannot conduct the appropriate research to vote. Therefore, voting D or R, voting on name recognition, or voting based on union/organizational endorsement is still commonplace. Interesting read from the WSJ this morning on how both Hillary and Sanders have failed to connect with the black vote in SC: http://www.wsj.com/articles/democratic-rivals-black-outreach-efforts-fall-short-in-south-carolina-1456363377

RSR on why the Ravens shouldn't waste a pick this high on a LT: http://russellstreetreport.com/2016/02/24/nfl-draft/safe-pick-ronnie-stanley-not-smart-pick/

Did some reading yesterday, sounds like Bernie is looking to take the primary all the way to the convention. From my understanding, if he is winning the popular vote things could get really messy and who knows what the super delegates will do even if Hillary has a significant lead in state count. Regardless, it means Bernie has a legitimate chance and has the financial backing to stay in it. I am still worried about his ability to make a dent in the black vote, and Hillary is still polling well amongst moderate Democrats, regardless of electability. Kind of opposite to Obama in 2008. Obama polled excellent with blacks, and he was more moderate than people think. There was not a question of whether Obama could connect with moderates like there is with Bernie. Hillary hypothetically could have taken the 2008 primary to the convention but backed out prior, probably because of party pressure. (Right now I am talking purely on the primary side not the general election). Hillary is still polling excellent with the elderly. I think Bernie will be hurt by the closed primaries where younger voters might not be registered, or independents who would like to vote for Bernie cannot. Luckily most of the Super Tuesday primaries are open.

I haven't read the entire article yet, but here's an insight into the examination process: http://www.seattletimes.com/sports/mariners/a-writer-is-put-to-the-test-by-the-mariners-medical-staff/

Can't wait for baseball season to start!

Per Olney on Twitter: Fowler is official. Three-year deal

Brady restructuring and Joe restructuring are not the same thing. Brady took a pay cut, Joe will not be taking a pay cut. Big Ben has restructured multiple times for the Steelers. He has not taken a pay cut. Joe restructuring is not him putting the team's best interests first. He gets a big upfront check and added job security. For the team, it is purely a short term move that pushes back the reality of a large amount of dead money.

A couple of things concern me about Gallardo: the increasing line drive rate and he had a terrible second half. On the flip side both Gallardo and Jiminez were front line pitchers in the first half of 2015. Both guys fell apart in the second half. If both guys can out like they did in the first half last season, we will be very good.

You're right, but it's not the same situation as the Obama campaign.

With the sort of leads she had initially it was inevitable they were going to shrink. Eventually there will be a diminishing return and those last five points to close the gap will be much more difficult than those first twenty he erased. I don't see the whole if Hillary "doesn't win but twenty points it's a loss" mentality in the number breakdowns. However, I don't have an emotional stake in either party's race, so what do I know I'm just enjoying the race

Gallardo is official: 3-years, $35M, fourth year club option for $13M. Not thrilled about the move but our window to win is now. Angelos is not getting any younger, Buck wants to win now, and there are no guarantees he would want to go through another rebuild at this point in his career. I could see Buck retiring if he wins a WS. He could have an easy career as a TV analyst or simply retire to Texas. There are no guarantees we'll be able to keep Machado. This is a move we had to make. We are looking at an extensive rebuild in a few years so in that context the draft pick is minimal. Gallardo at least has a ground ball pitching style that fits well with our infield defense. Have to give credit to Angelos for taking on this sort of payroll.

Hillary won Nevada. Bernie won the Hispanic vote, but Hillary absolutely demolished Bernie with the black vote. That doesn't bode well for him in SC. However, Nevada is a closed primary and that for sure hurt Bernie I would guess. SC is an open primary. http://www.cnn.com/election/primaries/polls/NV/Dem

Haha

The other thing is if the 2011-2012 version of Dexter Fowler was a free agent this offseason he'd be in line for a $100M+ contract and not the two-three year deal we are looking to sign him for. The 2013-2015 version is still a very good player. In fact, Fowler's 2014 season was better than his career 2012 season from an oWAR perspective, even with the pronounced LHP/RHP splits. 2014 is even more impressive considering he played in less games in 2014 than 2012, as you mentioned. I can't find any evidence of decline since 2013 and the advanced metrics aren't too different from 2012 outside of the LHP/RHP splits.

You're right, last three years splits against RHP are poor. He appears to hit lefties excellent. Splits have been consistent from 2013-2015. Prior to 2013 his splits were even. Kind of weird how he instantly dropped off against RHP in 2013. However, I will say he has pronounced home/away splits when he played for the Rockies. Might have something to do with it. I'm sure he'd get a lot of doubles off the RF scoreboard in Camden!

I understand both your points but Nevada is very much like NH and Iowa: it has a large, white, kind of anti-establishment voting demographic. And that goes for both Democrats and Reublicans in those states. Now Nevada has a fairly sizable Hispanic population. If Bernie wins Nevada but Hillary whips him with Hispanics that still signals trouble for Bernie. Bottom line: I'm holding back my expectations until after SC.

Not quite. Even after a poor showing in NH, that did not mean much in terms of delegates. Hillary is holding a commanding lead in SC: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/sc/south_carolina_democratic_presidential_primary-4167.html SC will be a big test for Bernie as it has a diverse counties that are better representative of the country as a whole. If he polls strong in SC he will have some serious momentum. If not, it will be a difficult battle going into Super Tuesday.

Where are you seeing the offensive decline? The 2012 year was an outlier OPS wise, but his oWAR numbers have been very consistent. Had a 3.5 oWAR last season, 3.9 the season before and 3.8 during his career 2012 year. Set a career high in walks but also a career high in SOs (although SO rate was below 2012 level and in line with his career numbers). Walk rate was down a percentage point from the past few years. Seems like he took more pitches than usual. Makes sense batting lead off in that powerful Cubs lineup, especially with Maddon's hitting philosophy as manager. ISO power was up close to his 2012 career high. The difference appears to be BAIP was significantly down. Contact rate was in line with career numbers, so his reason for a lower average, and OBP to an extent, could be some degree of luck (or maybe better defensive adjustments against him?). As far as his defense. A lot of his criticisms are similar to AJ. Plays too shallow, his zone ratings and other advanced metrics suggests he's terrible. The "eye test" says he's athletic and can cover ground and make plays other players cannot. At least Jones makes the plays he's supposed to so his WAR isn't adversely affected. Fowler supposedly plays even more shallow in center and doesn't make all the plays he's supposed to, so his dWAR is bad. Fowler doesn't have Jones's arm, but a move to RF with less ground to cover might help Fowler.

According to ESPN we are expected sign both Gallardo and Fowler. I am extremely excited for the Fowler signing. We have not had a legitimate lead off guy since before Brian Roberts caught the injury bug. Fowler is a great fit for our lineup. We are going to score some serious runs this season!

Mel Kiper in his latest mock draft has Bosa going #6 to the Ravens. That would be by far best case scenario for the Ravens. Might be unrealistic, but if two QB go within the top five then we will get a very good player.

Ts, for the record I agree with you on Treadwell 100%. That report seemed to be nitpicking to me. Especially the example of Treadwell not high pointing the ball in the bowl game against Oklahoma State. That play was a TD. IMO Treadwell showed an even more impressive trait of tracking the ball over his shoulder, shielding the defender, and not looking up to the last second to make the catch. Like you said he high points when he needs to and does an excellent job of tracking the ball. That report got me thinking, sounded very similar to scouting reports on Jalen Strong last year. Treadwell appears to be longer and more athletic than Strong from what I've seen.

PFF has Baylor WR Corey Coleman at 10, Leonte Carroo Rutgers WR (beast if he can stay healthy) at 15 and Treadwell at 26 on their first draft big board. @JeffDooleyPFF: WR Corey Coleman in top 10 might surprise some. @PFF_Sam is a big fan. 5.2 yds per route avg before Baylor's QBs got hurt is absurdly good

https://www.profootballfocus.com/blog/2016/02/16/draft-monson-why-laquon-treadwell-is-not-a-top-wr-prospect/ This PFF writer is not that high on Treadwell.

Spence is going to kill it at the combine.