To clarify as to why, if we win out, we would be the #1 seed: If we win out, we win the division due to the fact that Pittsburgh lost to us twice. All the talk about conference records with them is pointless, because for the head-to-head advantage. As far as a hypothetical 3-way tie scenario with Cincy, us,and Pittsburgh if us and Pittsburgh were to lose a couple more games, we would still win regardless of what happens. The worst we can finish in the division is 4-2, which is equal to the Steelers' best possible finish and 1 game better than Cincy's best possible finish. In that case, Cincy would be eliminated at the divisional tiebreaker, and then us and Pittsburgh would revert back to the first tiebreaker, which is head-to-head, and we would win. If we end tied with only Houston at 13-3, we get #1 overall seed by virtue of our head-to-head win. If we end tied with only New England at 13-3, we get #1 overall seed by virtue of record against common opponents (Steelers, Colts, Chargers, Jets: Ravens 5-0, Patriots 4-1). If we end tied with both at 13-3, with no head-to-head, equal conference records (10-2 across the board), and not enough common opponents, it would revert to strength of victory. The NFL won't calculate this far out who clinches strength of victory, but I've run the scenarios, and by my numbers neither team can catch us there. I may have made a mistake and haven't accounted for weird things like ties, but I'm 95% certain of that fact (and even if it is possible, it is exceedingly unlikely). So yes, if we win out, we will be the #1 seed.