ExtremeRavens Posted February 9 Posted February 9 One of the most lovable things about sports are the debates. For better or worse, there are plenty of shows built around that idea. Public ballots are often a lightning rod for those arguments, and the 2023 NFL Most Valuable Player Award is no exception. In finishing with 49 of 50 first-place votes, Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson narrowly missed becoming the first two-time unanimous winner of the annual Associated Press award. It’s perhaps nothing more than a footnote in NFL history and Jackson’s career at large, but a vote away from history nonetheless. Aaron Schatz, a longtime NFL analyst and stats expert who is now the Chief Analytics Officer at FTN Fantasy, was revealed to be the lone dissenter among the MVP voting, placing Jackson third behind Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen and Dallas Cowboys quarterback Dak Prescott. It’s not an unreasonable opinion, as Schatz laid out in a long, detailed article explaining his decision to leave Jackson off his All-Pro team. “TL;DR: I trusted my numbers and my gut over going with the crowd just to avoid controversy,” he wrote. Without completely rehashing Schatz’s argument — which is important to read in its full context — he noted that Jackson ranked behind Allen and Prescott in several advanced metrics such as Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement (DYAR), Defense-adjusted Value Over Average (DVOA), expected points added (EPA), win probability added (WPA), ESPN QBR and Sports Info Solutions Total Points. Schatz also pointed out that, while Jackson’s rushing ability “is one reason why the Ravens had the No. 1 run offense DVOA, even on plays where he hands the ball off,” Allen was more impressive as a runner and scrambler. And while acknowledging that Jackson performed at his best in nationally televised games against difficult opponents late in the season, including wins over the Los Angeles Rams, Jacksonville Jaguars, San Francisco 49ers and Miami Dolphins, Schatz said that Jackson had “more mediocre games than Prescott or Allen.” (We all remember those early struggles against the Indianapolis Colts and Pittsburgh Steelers.) Leaving those stats aside, Schatz said Jackson passes the “eye test.” “There’s no question, Jackson’s season was impressive,” he said. “I trust the film study people who believe he has never been better as a passer, even if his numbers were better in 2019. He’s processing better. He’s throwing the ball better. He’s hitting those tough throws outside the numbers better.” On that, we agree. Here’s where we don’t. “I looked at all this data. I tried to make the case for Lamar Jackson. I tried very hard to convince myself that I felt he was the guy. And I just could not do it,” Schatz wrote. “He had a great season. He’s a very good quarterback. I simply do not believe he was the best quarterback in the NFL this year, even though he led the best team.” There is plenty of nuance to this discussion, and perhaps those who gave second-place votes to Prescott, Allen, San Francisco 49ers running back Christian McCaffrey, 49ers quarterback Brock Purdy and Miami Dolphins wide receiver Tyreek Hill should have had more conviction and ranked those players above Jackson. Schatz deserves credit for being brave enough to give a controversial opinion. Here’s where it gets tricky: Those 49 other voters put Jackson first on their ballots for a reason, and it’s hard to say exactly how much public pressure factors in. The criticism Schatz is receiving on social media is perhaps what those voters wanted to avoid. But maybe the vote was just that simple. Jackson was the best player on the best team, and for much of the history of the subjective award (it’s Most Valuable Player, not Most Outstanding), that’s been enough. The context is important, too. Jackson entered the season with a new offensive coordinator in Todd Monken and a largely new group of receivers, including a first-round rookie. He had to learn a new playbook and get comfortable with more control at the line of scrimmage. In Week 1, starting running back J.K. Dobbins was lost for the season with a torn Achilles tendon. In Week 12, his favorite target and longtime security blanket Mark Andrews went down with an ankle injury. In Week 15, rookie running back Keaton Mitchell — who emerged as perhaps the most explosive playmaker on the team behind Jackson — suffered a season-ending knee injury. Jackson still threw for a career-high 3,678 yards, and although his 24 touchdown passes rank among the lowest ever for an MVP-winning quarterback, he also rushed for 821 yards and five scores. The Ravens rolled to a 13-4 record, the best in the NFL, and clinched home-field advantage in the AFC playoffs with a week to spare. And while Allen rallied the Bills to five straight wins to clinch an improbable AFC East title, Jackson won his final six starts and 10 of his last 11 to end the regular season. When you tell the story of the 2023 NFL season and think back on its most memorable moments, how many involve Jackson and the Ravens? On Dec. 10, do you remember Allen’s 20-17 win over the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes, or Jackson’s 37-31 overtime win over Matthew Stafford and the Los Angeles Rams on Tylan Wallace’s walk-off punt return for a touchdown? On Dec. 17, do you remember Allen completing seven passes in a 31-10 win over the Cowboys and Prescott or Jackson rushing for 97 yards in a 23-7 win over the Jaguars and Trevor Lawrence? What about the holiday weekend, when Allen narrowly beat the lowly Chargers and backup quarterback Easton Stick, 24-22, on Dec. 23 before Jackson threw for 252 yards and two scores in a 33-19 over the NFC-leading 49ers on Christmas night? On New Year’s Eve, do you remember Allen rushing for two touchdowns in a 27-21 win over the Patriots, or Jackson throwing five touchdown passes and posting a perfect passer rating in a 56-19 beatdown over the Dolphins that clinched the AFC’s top seed? Do you remember as Jackson watched comfortably from the sideline as the Ravens rested their starters in a Week 18 loss to the Steelers while Allen threw two interceptions and lost a fumble in a 21-14 win over Miami on “Sunday Night Football”? That’s the problem when we start looking at stats and data as a way to evaluate everything we see on a football field. Jackson was the star of the season, the leader of the team that Schatz himself argued is one of the best regular-season teams in NFL history. The 2023 Ravens would not be in the same conversation with legendary teams such as the 2007 New England Patriots and 1985 Chicago Bears without Jackson under center. “I’m a stat guy. I’m going to look at stats,” Schatz wrote. “There’s no question that by nearly every advanced metric you could look at, Josh Allen and Dak Prescott had better seasons than Lamar Jackson.” Here are Jackson’s top 10 plays of the 2023 season, here are Allen’s, and here are Prescott’s, as compiled by NFL.com. Decide for yourself which player should be MVP. I know who I’d vote for. View the full article Quote
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