ExtremeRavens Posted September 4 Posted September 4 The Chiefs won the Super Bowl, 25-22, over the San Francisco 49ers. The Ravens lost to Kansas City, 17-10, in the AFC championship game. Who will have the advantage when these AFC powers meet Thursday night in the NFL season opener? Ravens passing game vs. Chiefs pass defense Lamar Jackson won his second NFL Most Valuable Player Award in 2023, completing 67.2% of his passes for 3,678 yards and 24 touchdowns with just seven interceptions. As in Jackson’s other MVP season, the Ravens ranked low in total passing (21st) but high in efficiency (fifth in yards per attempt and pass DVOA). Jackson will work with a familiar set of targets, led by tight ends Mark Andrews (45 receptions, six touchdowns in just 10 games) and Isaiah Likely and wide receivers Zay Flowers (team-high 77 catches for 858 yards as a rookie) and Rashod Bateman. Of particular interest will be offensive coordinator Todd Monken’s efforts to scheme up production for Andrews and Likely when they’re on the field together and the state of Jackson’s chemistry with Bateman, who was open far more than he saw the ball last year. Jackson’s protection will also be worth watching with three new starters on the offensive line. Coach John Harbaugh has not announced his lineup, but Daniel Faalele and Andrew Vorhees are expected to step in for Kevin Zeitler and John Simpson at right and left guard, respectively, with Patrick Mekari and rookie Roger Rosengarten competing to replace Morgan Moses at right tackle. The Ravens will face a Chiefs defense that held them in check for most of the AFC championship game, sacking Jackson four times and picking him off once. Coordinator Steve Spagnuolo’s group, led by All-Pro cornerback Trent McDuffie and All-Pro defensive tackle Chris Jones, excelled at bringing pressure and preventing chunk plays throughout last season, ranking fifth in DVOA against the pass. Spagnuolo will stress Ravens blockers by sending extra rushers from all directions. He’ll need to, because much of his secondary is shaky. Kansas City traded starting cornerback L’Jarius Sneed in the offseason and struggled to find a good replacement this summer. Safeties Justin Reid and Bryan Cook will also be vulnerable if Jackson has time to probe. EDGE: Chiefs Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce pulls in a pass for a touchdown as Ravens safety Kyle Hamilton defends during the AFC championship game at M&T Bank Stadium. (Jerry Jackson/Staff) Chiefs passing game vs. Ravens pass defense Patrick Mahomes solidified his position as the best player in football by leading a team that had struggled (relatively speaking) for much of the regular season to a third Super Bowl win in five years. The Chiefs ranked just eighth in pass DVOA and did not have a single pass catcher exceed 1,000 yards. But tight end Travis Kelce and No. 1 wide receiver Rashee Rice stepped up to catch 19 of 20 balls thrown their way in the AFC championship game win over the Ravens. Though Kelce’s production slipped last season, his sixth-sense connection with Mahomes remains unmatched, and he’s dangerous when Kansas City needs a clutch third down. The Chiefs upgraded Mahomes’ targets in the offseason, signing former Ravens wide receiver Marquise “Hollywood” Brown (not expected to play in the opener because of a shoulder injury) and using a first-round pick on Texas receiver Xavier Worthy, who might challenge former Chief Tyreek Hill’s status as the NFL’s fastest playmaker. Kansas City’s offensive line, led by Pro Bowl center Creed Humphrey, is solid but will rely on a rookie left tackle in second-round pick Kingsley Suamataia. Mahomes will test a Baltimore pass defense that ranked first in DVOA, allowed just 4.7 yards per attempt and picked off 18 balls last season. The Ravens lost their most productive edge rusher in Jadeveon Clowney but re-signed breakout interior rusher Justin Madubuike (team-high 13 sacks and 33 quarterback hits) and will depend on a deep secondary led by All-Pro safety Kyle Hamilton and rounded out by a potential shutdown cornerback in first-round pick Nate Wiggins. First-year defensive coordinator Zach Orr, who’s replacing his friend and mentor Mike Macdonald, will jump into the fire against the most creative quarterback in football and one of the game’s greatest offensive minds in Chiefs coach Andy Reid. EDGE: Even Ravens running game vs. Chiefs run defense We’ll get our first look at Derrick Henry, the most productive running back of the last decade, playing off Jackson in a ground game that ranked first in DVOA last season. The Ravens said goodbye to their top short-yardage threat in Gus Edwards and oft-injured J.K. Dobbins in favor of the 30-year-old Henry, who averaged 4.2 yards per carry and scored 12 touchdowns for the struggling Tennessee Titans last year. The change will require adjustments from both sides as Henry will likely be asked to carry out of shotgun formations and take mesh option handoffs more than he ever was in Tennessee. But the idea of his speed and power complementing Jackson’s elite (821 yards, 5.5 yards per carry in 2023) elusiveness is tantalizing. Justice Hill (4.6 yards per carry in 2023) will serve as the change of pace. If the team’s young offensive line struggles out of the gate, it might be here more than in pass protection if what we saw in the preseason was any indication. The Ravens will face a Kansas City defense that ranked just 27th in DVOA against the run last year. Linebackers Nick Bolton and Leo Chenal are solid in the middle, but Jones was merely a decent run stuffer while fellow defensive tackle Derrick Nnadi struggled. The Ravens famously failed to take advantage of this relative weakness in the AFC championship game, attempting just 16 runs for 81 yards. EDGE: Ravens Chiefs running game vs. Ravens run defense The Chiefs return Isiah Pacheco (935 yards, 4.6 per carry in 2023) as their primary ground option. He carried 24 times for just 68 yards in the AFC championship game. The Chiefs don’t design many runs for Mahomes (389 yards, 5.2 per carry in 2023), but he remains a dangerous scrambler, especially when they need a clutch third down. The Ravens, led by All-Pro linebacker Roquan Smith and a seasoned defensive line, ranked seventh in rush DVOA last season and held the Chiefs to 2.8 yards per carry in the AFC championship game. They did make a major change at the other inside linebacker spot, letting Pro Bowl selection Patrick Queen leave in free agency and replacing him with 2023 third-round pick Trenton Simpson, who played just 46 defensive snaps as a rookie. Simpson has all the tools to succeed, but don’t be surprised if the Chiefs pick on him in his first start. EDGE: Ravens Ravens special teams vs. Chiefs special teams The Ravens ranked third and the Chiefs sixth in special teams DVOA last season, and this game will match up perhaps the two best kickers in the world in Justin Tucker (32 of 37 on field goal attempts in 2023) and Kansas City’s Harrison Butker (33 of 35, including 5 of 5 from 50 yards or beyond, in 2023). The league’s new kickoff rules will present a wild card for both teams, with the Ravens also turning to a new primary returner in 2019 Pro Bowl selection Deonte Harty. The speedy rookie Worthy could be a weapon for the Chiefs on punt returns. EDGE: Even Ravens intangibles vs. Chiefs intangibles It’s difficult to argue the Chiefs don’t have the Ravens’ number after they upset the AFC’s No. 1 seed at M&T Bank Stadium with a Super Bowl trip on the line. Kansas City has won four of five meetings in the Jackson-Mahomes era, with the Ravens’ lone victory coming in a 36-35 thriller in 2021. The Chiefs, aiming for an unprecedented three-peat, will be the AFC’s top dog until someone knocks them off decisively. With Mahomes, they’re never out of any game, and with Reid, their schemes never seem to grow stale for long. The Ravens were the league’s best regular-season team in 2023, but all the confidence they built could not get them over the hump in January. Jackson and Harbaugh face Super Bowl-or-bust expectations, and an opening win in Kansas City isn’t likely to change that. EDGE: Chiefs Prediction Normal rules of quality go out the window with a Thursday night opener. Just look at last season, when the Chiefs dragged their feet through a home loss to the Detroit Lions. The Ravens will be hyped to face their nemesis and seem unlikely to keep their Henry-powered running game in the holster this time around. Mahomes, meanwhile, will start without a full set of targets. The Ravens will pull the upset in a battle that won’t tell us much about what might happen if these teams meet again in January. Ravens 26, Chiefs 24 View the full article Quote
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