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Ravens Insider: Ravens vs. Chiefs staff picks: Who will win Thursday’s season opener in Kansas City?


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Here’s how The Baltimore Sun sports staff views the outcome of Thursday’s season opener between the Ravens and the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Missouri.

Brian Wacker, reporter

Chiefs 23, Ravens 17: Questions on the offensive line, sweeping coaching changes, a first-year starter at inside linebacker and Arrowhead Stadium at night? None of that portends a successful outcome for Baltimore. Derrick Henry will get a lot more than six carries and Lamar Jackson and a defense that is still one of the top units in the league will keep the Ravens in it. But the combination of quarterback Patrick Mahomes, tight end Travis Kelce, speedy rookie receiver Xavier Worthy and the mastery of coach Andy Reid and defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo will be too much to overcome.

Childs Walker, reporter

Ravens 26, Chiefs 24: Normal rules of quality go out the window with a Thursday night opener. Just look at last season, when the Chiefs dragged their feet through a home loss to the Detroit Lions. The Ravens will be hyped to face their nemesis and seem unlikely to keep their Derrick Henry-powered running game in the holster this time around. Patrick Mahomes, meanwhile, will start without a full set of targets. The Ravens will pull the upset in a battle that won’t tell us much about what might happen if these teams meet again in January.

Mike Preston, columnist

Chiefs 21, Ravens 18: Until proven otherwise, the Chiefs will stack the line of scrimmage and force quarterback Lamar Jackson to beat them downfield with the passing game. That strategy has paid off well against the Ravens in the postseason for the past six years. The Ravens are on the road playing in perhaps the loudest stadium in the NFL, and the Chiefs will be celebrating last year’s Super Bowl win as they try to three-peat. If there is one team that could pull the upset, it would be Baltimore, but Kansas City quarterback Patrick Mahomes is a miracle worker. This should be an interesting game.

C.J. Doon, editor

Ravens 24, Chiefs 23: This feels like the best time to meet the Chiefs at Arrowhead. Wide receiver Marquise Brown is out, and it’s unknown how well speedy rookie Xavier Worthy will connect with Patrick Mahomes in his first game. Tight end Travis Kelce has been a thorn in the Ravens’ side, but he’s about to turn 35 and is going to get plenty of attention from Baltimore’s deep group of defensive backs. The question is whether new defensive coordinator Zach Orr can have as much success as Mike Macdonald did in shutting down the Chiefs’ offense for the majority of the AFC championship game. This is a huge test for Orr and the Ravens’ young pass rushers, who must be relentless in their pursuit of a special scrambler like Mahomes.

Of course, it will be fascinating to see what Derrick Henry looks like running behind a largely unproven offensive line with three new faces. Lamar Jackson and Henry are good enough to overcome subpar blocking, but for how long? This Chiefs defense is formidable at all three levels, and coordinator Steve Spagnuolo has had Jackson’s number with this game serving as another data point in the star quarterback’s ability to beat the blitz. It might take an explosive play or two from Zay Flowers, Rashod Bateman or Isaiah Likely to flip this game in the Ravens’ favor — or perhaps a few long runs from the slimmer and faster two-time NFL Most Valuable Player.

It always feels like a coin flip when Jackson and Mahomes meet, and this should be no different. In the end, the Ravens are fueled by the sting of last year’s heartbreaking playoff loss and prove that they’re the team to beat in the AFC until an inevitable rematch in January. Put me down for a game-winning field goal by Justin Tucker as a measure of revenge for last year’s beef with Kelce.

Tim Schwartz, editor

Chiefs 27, Ravens 24: So they meet again. All eyes will be on this AFC championship game rematch, and it’s hard to believe Kansas City would lose its season opener two years in a row. The Ravens had plenty of roster (and coaching) turnover and might need a little time to hit their stride. Facing Mahomes and the Chiefs on the night they receive their Super Bowl rings and raise another banner in front of a sold-out Arrowhead Stadium is a tall task for Baltimore. Anytime these two teams square off, one should expect a close game. It will be no different tonight, but I’ll take the Chiefs by a hair.

Bennett Conlin, editor

Ravens 24, Chiefs 20: Fair or not, Lamar Jackson receives plenty of criticism for his 2-4 postseason record. In the regular season, however, Jackson’s 58-19 mark as a starter puts his winning percentage (75.3%) on par with Mahomes’ (77.1%) in non-playoff games.

Jackson is historically great as a regular-season underdog, going 12-1-1 against the spread in his career, according to ESPN’s Stats & Information. Defending Super Bowl champions are 0-3 against the spread in Week 1 over the past three years, with two outright losses. While the Chiefs might still three-peat, give me Kansas City opening with a loss for the second consecutive season.

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