Ravens Insider: Pro Football Focus can help explain the Ravens. But what do the numbers mean?

[ExtremeRavens]

In Week 4 of the 2019 season, Ravens coach John Harbaugh spoke to reporters about how useful analytics can be to illustrate football production and inform decision-making.

“You can dig up a lot of information,” he said. “And if you’re a reporter or if you’re on the radio, I would think that would be part of your job to do something like that and to explain to the fans exactly what the math is and how it works. It’s not hidden.”

Harbaugh is right, it’s not hidden. The amount of available data has drastically shifted sports discourse over the past decade. For the NFL, Pro Football Focus is among the top analytics sites and it can get a little complex.

When Ravens outside linebacker Odafe Oweh finished last season with five sacks, he wasn’t just tied for 85th in the league in number of times dragging down the quarterback. He was 14th in the NFL in pass rush win rate among edge rushers, per PFF. Or look at Baltimore’s 2023 offensive line, a positional group that can be hard to quantify. They allowed 160 total pressures, a number provided by PFF, which ranked 25th.

PFF prides itself on evaluating every player on every play. According to its website, “that attention to detail provides insights and data that cannot be found anywhere else.”

Sometimes sifting through charts and rankings — or even taking numbers at face value without understanding the math — can feel a little like Zach Galifianakis counting cards in “The Hangover.”

What is PFF?

Neil Hornsby founded PFF in 2006. To him, it began merely as a hobby. Nearly two decades later, it’s grown into much more. It’s a colloquialism for football nerds. PFF is the preeminent analytics provider with detailed data on all 32 NFL teams and more than 100 NCAA teams.

Cris Collinsworth, a former NFL wide receiver and Sports Broadcasting Hall of Famer, bought the Cincinnati-based company in 2014 and it now counts every NFL team as clients.

According to Front Office Sports, PFF charges each team $150,000 annually for its services. That includes its prized possession: an intensive player-grading system, which differentiates the site from the NFL’s Next Gen Stats; positional and league rankings; and quirky stats not found in a common box score (hello, elusive rating).

How does grading work?

Against the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 1, Isaiah Likely’s 111 yards on nine receptions and a 49-yard touchdown earned him a PFF grade of 91.8, which was calculated using all 14 of his snaps during run plays and 39 snaps on pass plays. His A- was the best grade for an NFL tight end in Week 1.

Ravens tight end Isaiah Likely earned the highest PFF grade of any NFL tight end in Week 1. (Kevin Richardson/Staff)

Tyler Linderbaum was another standout. His 73.8 grade was the third best among all centers. He also clocked a run blocking score of 80.9. Linderbaum trailed only Kansas City’s Creed Humphrey (79.4) and Erik McCoy (90.7) of the New Orleans Saints.

That’s a lot of numbers and not a lot of explanation.

The basics of calculating that number are straightforward. On any given snap, each player receives a grade from minus-2 to plus-2 in 0.5 increments, with 0 being the “expected” grade because not every player does something positive or negative on a given play. Each position group has its own set of rules, but that’s the basic draw. Those grades are tied to the player’s contribution rather than the result of the play. And they are not adjusted for quality of competition.

PFF’s example of a plus-2 is Eli Manning’s throw to Mario Manningham along the sideline in Super Bowl 46. If Likely had gotten his toenails trimmed, his near-fourth-quarter touchdown would have presumably garnered at least a plus-1.5. The sample minus-2 comes from the 2009 NFC championship game when Brett Favre threw across his body for an interception that ultimately cost the Minnesota Vikings the game. A checkdown completion would qualify for a 0.

At the end of the game, each number to the 10th place is averaged out for a raw score. Then PFF converts it to a more reader-friendly grade that better resembles a test score on a 0-100 scale.

Grades 90 or above are considered elite, 80 is good, 70 is above average. Anything in the 50s is below average, 40 is poor and 30 or lower is very poor.

More than 600 PFF employees and analysts with months, and sometimes years, of training decide the grades. They rely on a 300-page training manual and use every camera angle available, including the all-22 coaches’ tape to pick the number.

“We understand that PFF grade is not perfect,” the site reads, “but it’s also a unique look at a player’s production, and when paired with PFF’s advanced data, it’s one of the most powerful tools in the game.”

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