Ravens Insider: Ravens vs. Bills scouting report for Week 4: Who has the edge?

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The Ravens (1-2) held on to beat the Cowboys, 28-25, and avoid an 0-3 start. The Bills (3-0) thrashed the Jaguars, 47-10, on “Monday Night Football” to remain unbeaten.

Who will have the edge when these perennial AFC contenders meet Sunday night at M&T Bank Stadium?

Ravens passing game vs. Bills pass defense

Lamar Jackson threw infrequently but efficiently (averaging 12.1 yards on 15 attempts) as the Ravens leaned on their ground game to beat Dallas. He didn’t generally have to throw into tight windows, though he did fire a third-down completion to a well-covered Zay Flowers to help clinch the victory. The Ravens neutralized the Cowboys’ pass rush by scheming quick throws, several of which turned into catch-and-runs that went more than 20 yards. They stuck with Patrick Mekari at right tackle and Daniel Faalele at right guard. Both avoided major mistakes, allowing a pair of hurries each in 18 pass blocking snaps, per Pro Football Focus. The Ravens will take that, but their overhauled offensive line will face a sterner test from the Bills, who attack with productive pass rushers from the edge and the interior. They sacked Trevor Lawrence five times and hit him nine times in blowing out the Jaguars. Defensive end Gregory Rousseau and outside linebacker Von Miller have three sacks each. Ed Oliver and DaQuan Jones push the pocket from inside. Three Ravens starting linemen, Mekari (neck), center Tyler Linderbaum (knee) and left guard Andrew Vorhees (ankle), did not practice Wednesday.

Jackson hasn’t locked in on a favorite target. In the first game, it was tight end Isaiah Likely. In the second, it was Flowers. Against Dallas, Jackson spread his 12 completions to seven receivers. The one major surprise is tight end Mark Andrews ranking fifth on the team with a mere eight targets. He played just 21 of 63 offensive snaps against the Cowboys as the Ravens largely turned away from their aerial attack. With the Bills missing their top inside linebacker, Matt Milano, this could be a week for Andrews and Likely to go off in the middle of the field.

EDGE: Even

Bills passing game vs. Ravens pass defense

Josh Allen said farewell to his most prolific target, Stefon Diggs, in the offseason, but if anything, he has played more efficiently, completing 75% of his passes and averaging 8.8 yards per attempt. Wide receiver Khalil Shakir (14 catches on 14 targets, 168 yards) is Allen’s new No. 1, with tight end Dalton Kincaid and running back James Cook presenting threats closer to the line of scrimmage. Allen connected with 10 receivers against Jacksonville, so every Ravens linebacker and defensive back will be tested at some point. It’s a foreboding thought for a defense that has struggled to close off the middle of the field and to cover top targets when protecting leads. The Ravens put extra defensive backs on the field in dime packages and frustrated the Cowboys with aggressive coverage for three quarters but again let too many receivers spring free as Dak Prescott led three straight touchdown drives in a six-minute span of the fourth quarter. Starting cornerbacks Brandon Stephens and Marlon Humphrey played well, aided by Ar’Darius Washington, who excelled as a substitute for linebacker Trenton Simpson in those aforementioned dime looks.

The Ravens also generated plenty of pressure, led by outside linebacker Kyle Van Noy’s two sacks, four hurries and one deflection. Van Noy and Odafe Oweh have stepped up their production to fill the void left by Jadeveon Clowney, though the Ravens rank a mediocre 19th in pressures per dropback. Defensive tackle Nnamdi Madubuike lost a sack in the end zone to a bizarre rules interpretation by the game officials in Dallas. The Ravens will go against a Buffalo line, led by tackles Dion Dawkins and Spencer Brown, that has done a solid job protecting Allen (one quarterback hit against Jacksonville).

EDGE: Bills

Ravens running game vs. Bills run defense

The Ravens overpowered the Cowboys’ flimsy defensive front, running for 274 yards on 45 attempts and showcasing the full potential of the Jackson-Derrick Henry partnership. Henry (151 yards, two touchdowns against Dallas) took advantage of markedly improved run blocking from Mekari and Faalele, along with excellent work from Linderbaum and the tight ends. Henry went wild in the third quarter, when the Ravens built their lead to 28-6 and appeared on the verge of blowing the Cowboys out. Jackson then put the game on ice when he faked a handoff to Flowers and picked his way up the middle for a first down that allowed the Ravens to run out the clock. He and Henry are on pace to combine for more than 3,000 rushing yards and the main reasons the Ravens have averaged a league-best 5.9 yards per carry.

This is the advantage coordinator Todd Monken’s offense will have to press against a Buffalo defense that has allowed 4.7 yards per carry. Milano’s absence in the middle is significant. As good as the Bills’ interior linemen and edge rushers are at generating pressure, they’re not as stout against the run. Will defensive coordinator Bobby Babich load the box and try to force Jackson to beat him over the top? If not, the Bills might get trampled.

EDGE: Ravens

Bills running game vs. Ravens run defense

The Ravens have held opponents to 50 rushing yards per game and 2.8 yards per attempt despite dressing just four defensive linemen against the Cowboys and Kansas City Chiefs. All-Pro linebacker Roquan Smith has picked up his play after a dreadful opener, and safety Kyle Hamilton was a hammer around the line of scrimmage in Dallas. Travis Jones and Michael Pierce are playing well as they rotate snaps on the interior.

They’ll face a more substantial challenge against the Bills, who feature one of the league’s top backs in Cook (188 yards, 4.6 yards per carry, three touchdowns) and one of the most bruising running quarterbacks of all time in Allen (5.0 yards per carry, two touchdowns, nine first downs on 17 attempts). Cook is a problem if Buffalo commits to the run, but Allen is the real terror, because, like Jackson, he can improvise a first down against seemingly perfect defense. Ravens opponents have attempted just 53 runs through three games. The Bills have attempted 88 over their three victories. Each side will face its greatest test to date in this matchup.

EDGE: Ravens

Ravens special teams vs. Bills special teams

Special teams again took center stage as the Ravens nearly blew their 22-point lead against Dallas. Justin Tucker missed a 46-yard field goal attempt that would have put them up 31-6, his third miss in three games. Coach John Harbaugh acknowledged the Pro Bowl kicker is dealing with a “technique issue” that’s causing him to miss wide left. The Ravens also let the Cowboys in the door when Flowers to scoop up an onside kick in the fourth quarter. On the plus side, punter Jordan Stout rebounded from an ugly shank the previous week to kick well in Dallas, and returner Deonte Harty played his best game as a Raven.

Bills kicker Tyler Bass has missed three times from 40-49 yards over the past two seasons and has yet to attempt a kick from 50 yards or beyond this year. Brandon Codrington is a dangerous returner, but special teams isn’t a strength for Buffalo’s otherwise well-balanced team.

EDGE: Ravens

Ravens intangibles vs. Bills intangibles

The Ravens delivered their best performance of the season in a de facto must-win game to avoid going 0-3. Their near-collapse left questions about their ability to finish seemingly overmatched opponents. Harbaugh has acknowledged they’re still not nearly consistent enough at coverage, pass protection or special teams. Jackson, now 59-21 as a regular season starter, proved again that he’s the team’s ace in the hole as he pulled the Ravens from the brink with his clinching pass and run. They need to keep winning to put their disappointing start behind them, and they’ll be aided by the boisterous prime-time atmosphere at M&T Bank Stadium.

The Bills rallied from a 20-3 second-quarter deficit to beat the Ravens in Baltimore the last time these teams met in October 2022. They’re off to as good a start as any team in the league and draw tremendous confidence from Allen, just as the Ravens do from Jackson. Coach Sean McDermott hasn’t been around as long as Harbaugh but has guided Buffalo to six playoff appearances over the past seven seasons. The Bills went 4-4 on the road in 2023.

EDGE: Even

Prediction

These are two teams trying to take the last step to the Super Bowl, and they’ll present several matchup problems for one another. Can the Ravens impose their running game and keep Jackson from having to drop back too often against one of the league’s most formidable pass rushes? Can Allen find open receivers early in the game when the Ravens flood the field with defensive backs, and can he hurt them with his legs? Both teams will want to play from ahead, but the Ravens will have the slightest advantage as they pound a wounded defense with Henry and Jackson for a win that puts their season back on track. Ravens 27, Bills 24

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