ExtremeRavens Posted November 14 Posted November 14 Few NFL rivalries (if any) have been more entertaining since 2000 than Ravens-Steelers. The AFC North foes always seem to be competitive, especially with Mike Tomlin and John Harbaugh coaching. The 2024 edition of the rivalry kicks off Sunday in Pittsburgh, when the 7-2 Steelers host the 7-3 Ravens. Even those without math degrees can quickly surmise that the winner will lead the AFC North. The loser will face an uphill climb to the division title. “Historically, we’ve had some awesome matchups,” Tomlin said. “There’s always AFC North ramifications. I just respect this rivalry.” Baltimore, despite playing on the road and losing seven of its past eight to Pittsburgh, is the betting favorite across Maryland sportsbooks. Historical trends say that’s a dangerous place to be in this rivalry. Since 2015, the underdog in this matchup is 15-2-1 against the spread, according to Action Network data. For whatever reason, the underdogs have been exceptionally successful when Baltimore and Pittsburgh meet. What are the odds? The spread favors Baltimore, but not by much. For the ninth time this season, the Ravens are favorites in the betting markets. Spread: Ravens -3 (FanDuel) Total: 48.5 points Moneyline: Ravens -180, Steelers +152 Pittsburgh is 7-2 against the spread, tied with Detroit as the best ATS record in the NFL. The Ravens are 5-4-2 ATS this season, a respectable mark for a team often favored by significant margins. Nine of the Ravens’ 10 games have gone over the point total. Underdogs thrive in series With underdogs dominating this series, I’m taking the Steelers spread this weekend. Pittsburgh has exceeded expectations this season, and the passing attack looks more dangerous with Russell Wilson — no “Danger Russ” pun intended — than it did with Justin Fields at quarterback. Defensively, the Steelers have the linemen to pressure Lamar Jackson, and they’ve shown the ability to defend the pass and stop the run. Pittsburgh is second in the NFL in scoring defense, allowing just 16.2 points per game. There’s still a strong case the Ravens are the better overall team — that’s what happens when you have a two-time MVP quarterback entering his prime — but they struggle defensively. They’re allowing a league-worst 294.9 passing yards per game, and safety Kyle Hamilton suffered an ankle injury that could hamper him this weekend. “It’s just happening way too much with us right now,” Harbaugh said of lapses in the secondary. Can the Ravens slow down wide receiver George Pickens? He’s caught both of his touchdown passes this season in the past three weeks, suggesting his connection with Wilson could be a problem for opposing defenses. Pickens, who went over 1,000 receiving yards last season, is on pace to do so again this year. He’s averaging 16 yards per reception, and the Ravens are allowing 7.9 yards per pass attempt, which is fourth-worst in the NFL. With decent weather expected — 60 degrees in Pittsburgh in mid-November is balmy in my book — the over could be a solid wager yet again for a Ravens Sunday. I lean toward the Steelers covering the spread, the game going over the total and Pickens reaching the end zone (+135 on FanDuel). My favorite bet of those three is the Steelers covering the small spread, as I predict Pittsburgh to pull the upset. Best bet: Steelers +3.5 (DraftKings) Have a news tip? Contact sports editor Bennett Conlin at bconlin@baltsun.com, 410-332-6200 and x.com/BennettConlin. View the full article Quote
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