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There’s a Bill Parcells quote that’s often evoked this time of year. For teams like the Ravens, eyeing down a crucial four-game stretch, it rings especially true.

“The season starts after Thanksgiving,” Parcells used to say.

Ravens coach John Harbaugh invoked the Hall of Famer during his Monday press conference. “Wow, what a truth for the teams that are still in it,” he said, “and we’re one of those teams.”

The Ravens dropped to 8-5 on Sunday after a 24-19 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles, their first game after digesting turkey and mashed potatoes. They’re now 1 1/2 games behind the AFC North-leading Pittsburgh Steelers.

Each remaining game is going to count in chasing down the Steelers for the divisional title, a shot at home-field advantage, and more favorable playoff positioning.

“Every goal that we have is in front of us, and we have the team to do it,” Harbaugh said. “I’m proud of our guys; I feel like they’ve fought through a lot of things this year. It’s been 13 straight weeks. We’ve had a lot of tough games; we’ve had a lot of travel. We’ve gone against teams in situations where they were hot, they were at their best, they were playing good football, they were healthy, and it’s a challenge, and I think our guys handled that challenge really well. So that forges you for what’s ahead.”

What’s ahead is a bye week. Then come three games in 11 short days: a road game against the meager New York Giants, a potentially decisive home bout with the Steelers and a Christmas Day game at the 8-5 Houston Texans. Baltimore finishes its regular season schedule at home vs. the 3-9 Cleveland Browns.

The Athletic’s 2024 playoff prediction model provides a good statistical baseline. It factors in projected strength, current health and remaining strength of schedule, giving Baltimore a 95% chance of making the playoffs, a 36% chance of winning the division and a 5% chance of winning the Super Bowl — a two-point drop following Sunday’s loss.

As it stands, Baltimore could be looking at a wild-card round game in Pittsburgh. A win there would presumably mean playing the Bills in Buffalo in January, vying for an AFC championship rematch with the Kansas City Chiefs.

Much of that murderer’s row could change with how close the race is in the AFC.

The Texans, Los Angeles Chargers, Ravens and Denver Broncos all have eight wins. Baltimore has the head-to-head tiebreaker advantage over the Chargers and Broncos, with a chance to jump the Texans later this month.

Of those teams, The Athletic’s model predicts the Ravens, Chargers and Broncos to finish 11-6, while the Texans are forecasted for 10-7. Baltimore has the easiest remaining strength of schedule in the quartet, according to ESPN’s Football Power Index. The Steelers have the toughest, which favors the Ravens’ quest.

Quarterback Lamar Jackson won’t hear any inquiries on the matter.

“We don’t need to worry about the Steelers. We need to worry about us,” he said. “That’s the first thing; worry about what we need to clean up on this side. Clean that [crap] up. Forget every other team.”

Added Harbaugh: “We can win the division, we can make it as a wild card, or we could be out [of the playoffs]. It’s up to us to determine that. I feel like, if we win the games, we’ll be in really good shape.”

It’s after Thanksgiving so now’s the time.

Have a news tip? Contact Sam Cohn at scohn@baltsun.com, 410-332-6200 and x.com/samdcohn.

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