ExtremeRavens Posted December 18, 2024 Posted December 18, 2024 It’s not an exaggeration to say Saturday’s game is the Ravens’ most important of the season. With a win over the visiting Steelers, Baltimore pulls into a tie for the AFC North lead. With a loss, the Ravens are officially out of the race to win the division and guarantee a home playoff game. “We just know what’s at stake,” tight end Mark Andrews said. “It’s the time of year. We’ve got to win games. We’ve put ourselves in a great position.” For those that put stock into sports betting odds, it spells good news for the Ravens (9-5). Sportsbooks across Maryland list Baltimore as nearly a touchdown favorite against the division-leading Steelers (10-4). The bad news for Ravens fans? Coach Mike Tomlin’s team has far surpassed oddsmakers’ expectations through their first 14 games of the year. What are the odds? The Ravens will enter a game as a betting favorite for the 14th consecutive time this season. They’ve been favored in every game this year, aside from the season opener against the Kansas City Chiefs. Spread: Ravens by 6 1/2 (FanDuel) Total: 45 1/2 points Moneyline: Ravens -290, Steelers +245 The Steelers are one of the NFL’s best teams against the spread, boasting a 10-4 record. The Ravens, meanwhile, are a solid 7-6-1. Ravens games often trend toward the over, with 11 of their 14 games going over the projected point total. Baltimore had its lowest scoring output of the season in an 18-16 loss to Pittsburgh on Nov. 17, as the Steelers’ defense stifled the Ravens and quarterback Lamar Jackson. The NFL Most Valuable Player candidate completed fewer than 50% of his passes, only averaging 6.3 yards per attempt and throwing one of his three interceptions this season in the November meeting. “They do a lot of things well,” Andrews said of Pittsburgh’s defense. Ravens send a message The recent series history paints a bleak picture for the Ravens against the Steelers. Baltimore has lost eight of its past nine meetings with its division rival, forcing players to answer questions about why the Steelers have their number. Even this year’s record suggests the Steelers are the superior team, as they hold a one-game lead in the division. The advanced analytics tell a different story. Baltimore ranks first in the NFL in DVOA, implying the Ravens are just as worthy a Super Bowl contender as the Buffalo Bills, Detroit Lions and Philadelphia Eagles. Pittsburgh, on the other hand, ranks 11th, behind teams such as Denver and San Francisco. Advanced analytics aren’t gospel, but it’s fair to question this iteration of the Steelers. Just last week, Pittsburgh suffered a 27-13 loss to the Eagles, but the final score masks the lopsided matchup. Philadelphia recorded 238 more yards, 16 more first downs and nearly 20 more minutes of possession than Pittsburgh. The Steelers were thoroughly outplayed by one of the NFL’s best teams. In the first meeting between the Ravens and Steelers, penalties (12 for 80 yards), turnovers (three that led to nine points) and missed field goal attempts (two) were Baltimore’s undoing. The Ravens beat themselves. “Us just being on schedule with those guys, I feel like we’ll be where we need to be,” Jackson said this week. If Baltimore can avoid those self-inflicted mishaps — a task that’s easier said than done this season — the Ravens are the better team. They’re playing at home, and they’re coming off a crisp showing against the lowly Giants. Ravens linebacker Roquan Smith is healthy, and Pittsburgh’s No. 1 wide receiver, George Pickens, is battling a hamstring problem. Baltimore has delivered a few special home showings this season against likely playoff teams, beating the Bills, Commanders and Broncos by a combined 63 points. Saturday will be another statement win for the Ravens. Best bet: Ravens by 6 1/2 Have a news tip? Contact sports editor Bennett Conlin at bconlin@baltsun.com, 410-332-6200 and x.com/BennettConlin. View the full article Quote
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.