ExtremeRavens Posted December 24, 2024 Posted December 24, 2024 The Ravens celebrated a cathartic 34-17 win over the Steelers on Saturday, while the Texans fell to the Chiefs, 27-19. Who will have the advantage when these AFC playoff teams meet on Christmas? Ravens passing game vs. Texans pass defense This is the league’s most efficient pass offense against its most efficient pass defense, according to DVOA, so that’s fun. Lamar Jackson finally played a Most Valuable Player-level game against the Pittsburgh defense, which had given him more trouble than any other. His throws into tight windows, including a 49-yard gain to Zay Flowers on the Ravens’ final scoring drive, demonstrated how far he has come as a passer over the past seven years. A red-zone interception on which he and Rashod Bateman failed to find the same page was his only significant misfire in that signature win. Jackson has set new career highs in passing yards and touchdown passes with two games to spare and leads the league in passer rating and yards per attempt for an offense that ranks first in yards per play, third in scoring and first in red zone efficiency. His leading receiver, Flowers, crossed the 1,000-yard mark for the season against Pittsburgh. Tight end Mark Andrews has caught touchdown passes in four straight games and has totaled nine in his past 10. Jackson’s pass protection held up well against the Steelers’ star rushers, with only Alex Highsmith wreaking havoc, largely against left tackle Ronnie Stanley, whose performance has dipped in recent weeks. The Baltimore offensive line will face another rigorous test from the Texans, tied for third in the league in sacks and holding opponents to just 5.4 yards per attempt. The troubles start with edge rushers Will Anderson Jr. (10 1/2 sacks, 17 quarterback hits) and Danielle Hunter (12 sacks, 23 quarterback hits). Like many of the top defenses, the Texans put heat on the quarterback without blitzing frequently (21.2% of dropbacks). Houston also has an array of playmakers in its secondary, led by 2022 first-round pick Derek Stingley Jr., who appears headed for his first Pro Bowl with five interceptions and 18 passes defended. Rookie Kamari Lassiter has played well as Stingley’s partner on the outside. Veteran Jimmie Ward, one of the league’s best safeties over the last five years, suffered a season-ending foot injury against the Chiefs. EDGE: Ravens Ravens vs TexansJerry Jackson/Baltimore SunRavens linebacker Roquan Smith sacks Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud during last year’s season opener. (Staff file) Texans passing game vs. Ravens pass defense Quarterback C.J. Stroud (23rd in passer rating, 25th in ESPN’s QBR) hasn’t produced the sparkling follow-up many expected after his splendid rookie season, which ended in the divisional round of the playoffs against the Ravens. Stefon Diggs tore his ACL, and Tank Dell dislocated his kneecap in an unsettling scene against the Chiefs, so Stroud is down two of his top three targets. Only Nico Collins (60 catches, 909 yards, six touchdowns in 10 games) remains as a significant big-pay threat. The Texans could have wide receiver John Metchie III back from a shoulder injury. Tight end Dalton Schultz (48 catches, 482 yards) is Stroud’s other main option, and running back Joe Mixon is always dangerous on screens and dump-offs. Houston’s pass protection, expected to be a strength with Laremy Tunsil anchoring at left tackle, has been faulty, leaving Stroud to take 47 sacks. The second-year quarterback has added to that problem by holding the ball an average of 2.97 seconds per dropback, according to Next Gen Stats. The Ravens will try to follow up a strong effort against the Steelers in which they pressured Russell Wilson 27 times, per Pro Football Focus. Outside linebacker David Ojabo helped create Marlon Humphrey’s pick-six in the fourth quarter, which essentially put the game away. Outside linebacker Kyle Van Noy and defensive tackle Nnamdi Madubuike delivered stellar performances. The secondary did its part with three massive plays: Humphrey’s interception, Ar’Darius Washington’s forced fumble on Wilson near the goal line and Kyle Hamilton’s pass breakup on another potential touchdown. Humphrey (six interceptions, 13 pass breakups) deserves to make his fourth Pro Bowl, while safeties Hamilton and Washington have transformed the Ravens’ pass defense since they took over the back end. Baltimore now ranks 14th in DVOA against the pass, which would have seemed inconceivable 10 weeks into the season when the defense had given up more 20-yard-plus plays than any in the league. Cornerback Brandon Stephens also played one of his best games in a rocky year against the Steelers. EDGE: Ravens Ravens running game vs. Texans run defense The Ravens trampled the Steelers for 220 rushing yards, with Derrick Henry delivering a vintage late-season performance (24 carries, 162 yards). Just a few days away from his 31st birthday, Henry is on pace for the second-highest rushing total of his marvelous career and averaging a career-best 5.9 yards per carry. Pittsburgh bottled up Jackson (nine carries, 22 yards); he’s still leading the league at 6.1 yards per attempt. The Ravens lost third-down back Justice Hill (concussion) on a scary play, so they will likely call on Rasheen Ali, with Keaton Mitchell also active, against the Texans. The Texans’ run defense is also very good, though they’ll miss suspended (for his hit on Jacksonville quarterback Trevor Lawrence) linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair. Even without him, Houston allowed just 52 yards in a win over the Dolphins and 124 in its loss to Kansas City. Opponents average 4.3 yards per carry against the Texans. Will the Ravens, with their league-best 5.7-yard average, finally be the team that cracks the dam against them? EDGE: Ravens Texans running game vs. Ravens run defense Mixon has tailed off after a red-hot start and is averaging 4.2 yards per carry, in line with his career mark of 4.1. He’s of course familiar to the Ravens after playing seven seasons in Cincinnati. Baltimore has held him to 3.6 yards per carry. The Texans don’t really have a second option, though Stroud will take off in a pinch. The Ravens have allowed the fewest yards per game and per carry in the league, though Pittsburgh found some success against them on early downs, running for 117 yards on 24 carries. Linebacker Roquan Smith again leads the team in tackles, though Hamilton has arguably taken over as the most impactful run defender. Linebacker Chris Board, who has taken snaps away from Trenton Simpson, played his best game of the season against the Steelers. The Ravens also have their interior wall back with nose tackle Michael Pierce and defensive tackle Travis Jones both off the injury report. EDGE: Ravens Ravens special teams vs. Texans special teams Justin Tucker eased some of the anxiety around him by making all his kicks, including a 51-yard field goal, on a blustery afternoon against the Steelers. The day still turned into an adventure for the Ravens’ special teams, with Jordan Stout shanking a punt and punt returner Desmond King II fumbling twice (coach John Harbaugh said King will remain his punt returner against Houston). Such errors explain why the Ravens rank 24th in special teams DVOA. On kickoffs, Mitchell is the top candidate to stand in for Hill. Houston ranks seventh in special teams DVOA. Kicker Ka’imi Fairbairn has made 35 of 41 field-goal attempts, though he missed an extra point against Kansas City and two of his earlier misses came on field goals between 20 and 29 yards. Punter Tommy Townsend is one of the best in the league. The Texans have averaged an impressive 30.6 yards on kickoff returns, a less impressive 8.5 on punt returns. EDGE: Texans Ravens intangibles vs. Texans intangibles The Ravens’ win over the Steelers was their most satisfying of the season and gave them a solid chance to snatch the AFC North and home-field advantage in the first round of the playoffs from Pittsburgh. They’ll be at a rest disadvantage as the road team in a short week, but Houston is coming off a tough loss with several key players either on injured reserve or trying to fight through injuries. Coach John Harbaugh’s Ravens beat the Texans twice in Baltimore last season. They’re 5-3 on the road this season. The Texans don’t have much to play for in the standings, with the AFC South already clinched and an uphill path to the No. 3 seed. But coach DeMeco Ryans’ team will be a home underdog motivated to prove it can best one of the conference’s proven big dogs in a nationally televised Christmas showcase. Stroud and his teammates appeared shell-shocked after they witnessed Dell’s injury against the Chiefs, but there’s no reason to think that will carry over. Of greater concern to the Texans is their generally poor record against top-tier opponents, with an Oct. 6 win over the Buffalo Bills the lone exception. EDGE: Ravens Prediction Elite pass offense vs. elite pass defense. That’s an enticing headline for a Christmas showcase, and Jackson will face another true test as he tries to rally his team to a repeat AFC North title. The Ravens’ pass protection will need to be sturdy, and they’ll need to build a significant advantage on the ground. The good news for them is that Stroud, now missing two of his top three receivers, has not been at his best for most of this season. It will be difficult for Houston to keep up if the Ravens’ offense plays even an average game. The Texans have played close games against top opponents but have fallen short in most of those. That pattern will hold against Baltimore. Ravens 31, Texans 24 Have a news tip? Contact Childs Walker at daviwalker@baltsun.com, 410-332-6893 and x.com/ChildsWalker. View the full article Quote
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