ExtremeRavens Posted 9 hours ago Posted 9 hours ago For football fans, the next few days are a dream. The NFL playoffs kick off Saturday with six games in three days, including the Ravens’ home wild-card game Saturday night against the Steelers. Before that, the College Football Playoff semifinals take place Thursday and Friday night, with four well-known programs competing for spots in the national title game serving as the ideal appetizer. Many of the postseason games are expected to be hard-fought battles — both college showdowns have point spreads within a touchdown, as do four of the six NFL games — but betting oddsmakers aren’t expecting a one-possession Baltimore-Pittsburgh game that we’ve grown used to in recent years. “It’s an aberration to have this spread this high,” said Johnny Avello, DraftKings’ director of sports operations. What are the odds? Baltimore is nearly a 10-point favorite Saturday, as it has home-field advantage and beat a slumping Pittsburgh team by 17 points in the most recent meeting. Power rankings across sportsbooks and sports analytics sites view the Ravens as one of the NFL’s best teams, and that’s reflected in Saturday’s spread. Spread: Ravens by 9 1/2 (DraftKings) Total: 43 1/2 points Moneyline: Ravens -485, Steelers +370 While the Ravens’ moneyline has fairly short odds, bettors are still flocking to back the Ravens to win. According to bet tracking site Pikkit, nearly 91% of tracked moneyline bets on the platform are on the Ravens. Using the Ravens’ moneyline in a parlay has been popular this week at DraftKings, according to Avello. “The bettors just don’t have a lot of faith in the Steelers right now,” Avello said. Baltimore’s Super Bowl path Baltimore’s Super Bowl path, if it beats the Steelers, could include road games against the Bills and Chiefs. That’s a gantlet for John Harbaugh’s team just to make the Super Bowl. Barring upsets, Lamar Jackson will need to beat two of his elite quarterback peers to reach his first Super Bowl. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs’ postseason schedule looks extremely favorable compared with the Bills and Ravens, with Kansas City perhaps only needing to beat the Texans or Chargers to advance to the AFC championship game. “I’m not saying it’s a guaranteed win,” Avello said, “but it’s a softer game for their first game, and then the Ravens and the Bills have to go up against each other … [the Chiefs’] path to get [to the Super Bowl] is much easier than anybody else’s.” The odds reflect that, with Kansas City’s Super Bowl odds (+350) the shortest of any team in the AFC. Only the Detroit Lions (+285) have shorter odds than the Chiefs to hoist the Lombardi Trophy. Interestingly, Baltimore holds shorter Super Bowl odds (+550) than the Bills (+650), even though the Ravens would have to play at Buffalo if both teams win this weekend. The Bills are a perfect 8-0 at home this season, but they did lose by 25 points in Baltimore earlier this season. “There’s still a ways to go,” Avello said, cautioning that the projected Bills-Ravens matchup isn’t set in stone. READER POLL: How far will the Ravens advance in the playoffs? Buffalo seemingly has the tougher wild-card round matchup — although neither is all that scary on paper — as it hosts a Denver team that is 5-2 over its last seven games. The Broncos are playing solid football, while the Steelers are 2-5 in their past seven contests with three double-digit losses during that span. If Buffalo and Baltimore successfully avoid upsets, the two favorites to win MVP (Buffalo quarterback Josh Allen and Jackson) will square off for a spot in the AFC championship game. While Jackson holds the edge over Allen in several statistics, including touchdown passes (41 to 28), passing yards (4,172 to 3,731) and rushing yards (915 to 531), Allen (-450) is the betting favorite to win MVP. Both quarterbacks would gladly trade the individual accolade for a trip to the Super Bowl. Will the Ravens lean on their star running back? Baltimore’s offense is at its best when the offensive line opens holes for running back Derrick Henry and Jackson. Despite the Steelers’ stout run defense — the unit is one of seven NFL defenses to give up fewer than 100 rushing yards per game this season — Baltimore ran for 220 yards against Pittsburgh on Dec. 21. Henry accounted for 162 of those, averaging 6.8 yards per carry. With typical winter temperatures expected — the temperature should hover around or below freezing Saturday night — the Ravens would be wise to lean on Henry against a seemingly overmatched opponent and limit the potential for Pittsburgh’s defensive line to create strip sacks or tipped passes leading to turnovers. Two of Lamar Jackson’s four interceptions have come against the Steelers, and Baltimore was fortunate to pounce on a fumble by Jackson in the December meeting. Zay Flowers’ knee injury might also persuade the Ravens and offensive coordinator Todd Monken to lean more heavily on the rushing attack. Baltimore is particularly adept at leaning on Henry in the second half of games this season, an ideal plan Saturday if it can build a lead. In the first half, Henry averages 5.1 yards per carry. In the second half, that average climbs to a whopping 6.4. Baltimore acquired Henry for games like Saturday’s, hoping the bruising runner is the missing piece for an elite offense’s playoff struggles. “We know what’s at stake, and we know what we’ve got to do to get where we need to go,” Henry said. Henry won’t admit it publicly, but giving him the ball might be the simple solution to the team’s postseason struggles with Jackson. The former Titan has eclipsed 100 rushing yards in three consecutive games and rushed for 150 yards or more in three of his seven career playoff games. On DraftKings, bettors can take Henry to go over 100 rushing yards at -115 odds. When pairing Henry to go over 100 yards with the Ravens’ moneyline to generate a same-game parlay, the odds climb to +100. The same parlay on FanDuel has -102 odds and it’s -110 at BetMGM. Best bet: Derrick Henry over 100 rushing yards parlayed with Ravens moneyline, +100 on DraftKings Have a news tip? Contact sports editor Bennett Conlin at bconlin@baltsun.com, 410-332-6200 and x.com/BennettConlin. View the full article Quote
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