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Ravens Insider: Ravens vs. Steelers wild-card round staff picks: Who wins Saturday in Baltimore?


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Here’s how The Baltimore Sun sports staff views the outcome of Saturday’s wild-card game between the Ravens (12-5) and Steelers (10-7) at M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore:

Brian Wacker, reporter

Ravens 23, Steelers 16: With Zay Flowers out, the Ravens’ offense becomes less explosive. The Steelers are also healthy after being without a handful of key players, including safety DeShon Elliott and defensive tackle Larry Ogunjobi, the last time these teams met. Still, Lamar Jackson is playing his best football at a time of year when it matters most, and having Derrick Henry (along with a now healthy Justice Hill) makes a difference compared to previous playoff games. If things get ugly and sloppy, though, that will likely spell trouble for Baltimore. But the Ravens’ offense still has enough firepower to outscore what has been a struggling Steelers offense that will have its problems against an ascending defense.

Childs Walker, reporter

Ravens 27, Steelers 19: Zay Flowers won’t play, and that’s a big deal, but not such a big deal that the Ravens won’t survive without their Pro Bowl wide receiver. They’ll still have the dominant playmakers on the field in Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry, and in Rashod Bateman and Isaiah Likely, they have pass catchers gifted enough to replace much of Flowers’ production. If Jackson plays close to the peaks he reached this season and avoids turnovers, Pittsburgh’s sputtering offense won’t keep up. The Steelers have the pass rush and the big-play capability to make this a closer game than the point spread would suggest. We’ve seen them upend superior Ravens teams in the past five years. They just won’t score quite enough on a cold night in Baltimore.

Mike Preston, columnist

Ravens 28, Steelers 14: The only chance the Steelers have is if their defensive front dominates. Pittsburgh has enough talent on the outside in linebackers T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith to keep quarterback Lamar Jackson in the pocket. If the defensive tackles can maintain lane integrity, Jackson will struggle as he has in the past against Pittsburgh. Offensively, the Steelers have to cut down on turnovers because the team with fewer in the previous two meetings this season has been victorious. Overall, this is probably too high of a mountain for Pittsburgh to climb. The Ravens have a cold-weather answer in running back Derrick Henry and they will be able to cut off Pittsburgh’s short passing game. Look for the Ravens to double up on Steelers receiver George Pickens on the outside.

C.J. Doon, editor

Ravens 23, Steelers 20: I’m surprised to see the Ravens favored by more than a touchdown. Baltimore is the better team on paper, no doubt, but it hasn’t exactly covered itself in glory against its biggest rival. Pittsburgh won the first matchup at home, then had a chance to drive for the game-tying touchdown in the fourth quarter at M&T Bank Stadium before Russell Wilson threw a pick-six. Not exactly dominant from Lamar Jackson and company. Here’s a quick history lesson: 29 of the 37 matchups between John Harbaugh and Mike Tomlin have been one-score games, and more than half have been decided by three points or fewer. All these teams do is play nail-biters. I’m not expecting that to change anytime soon, especially with the pressure of the postseason ramped up. In a fun reversal from Week 11, it’s Justin Tucker who saves the day for the Ravens this time around.

Tim Schwartz, editor

Ravens 28, Steelers 21: This should be the Derrick Henry show. The Ravens have to remember what happened in the AFC championship game last year when they abandoned their running game — and therefore their identity. The Steelers won’t be able to keep up offensively with Baltimore, but the home team needs to make sure of that by limiting Pittsburgh’s time of possession and controlling the clock and pace of the game. Lamar Jackson hasn’t been shy about taking off on scrambles lately, and now is the time to be his most dynamic self and show no hesitation when a hole opens up. Not having Zay Flowers will make this offense far less explosive — all the more reason to rely on the NFL’s best backfield duo and do what they do best.

Bennett Conlin, editor

Ravens 27, Steelers 14: The Ravens are the better team, and they’re playing like it. While Baltimore enters the postseason on a four-game winning streak, the Steelers own a four-game losing streak that includes a defeat in Baltimore. Mike Tomlin is a great coach who deserves endless credit for his ability to avoid losing seasons, but Pittsburgh’s leader is hardly a playoff behemoth (8-10 overall in the postseason). Pittsburgh didn’t have an answer to Derrick Henry a few weeks ago. Will they Saturday? A playoff victory over a longtime rival should offer a boost of confidence to Lamar Jackson and company ahead of potential matchups with the Bills and Chiefs.

Have a news tip? Contact sports editor Tim Schwartz at timschwartz@baltsun.com, 410-332-6200 and x.com/timschwartz13.

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