ExtremeRavens Posted Wednesday at 08:42 PM Posted Wednesday at 08:42 PM The Ravens opened the playoffs by running over the Steelers, 28-14. After falling behind early, the Bills had their way with the Broncos, 31-7. Who will have the advantage when these powerhouses meet Sunday in Buffalo with a berth in the AFC championship game on the line? Ravens passing game vs. Buffalo pass defense Lamar Jackson needed just 18 efficient pass attempts to lead the Ravens to a 35-10 win over the Bills in September. Baltimore jumped ahead on Derrick Henry’s 87-yard touchdown run and never looked back, controlling the flow without exposing Jackson, who took just one sack and two hits, to risk. Coordinator Todd Monken would love to play the same way Sunday on a cold night in Buffalo, while the Bills will likely attempt to keep Jackson in the pocket and dare him to beat them downfield. The possible absence of Jackson’s top wide receiver, Zay Flowers, could embolden Buffalo coordinator Bobby Babich to gear his defense toward taking away Henry. But Flowers played a small role — one catch on two targets for 10 yards — in the Ravens’ previous win over the Bills. Third-down back Justice Hill was actually Jackson’s most prolific and productive target in that game. Which is to say there’s no guessing which pass catcher might take center stage in Monken’s ever-adaptable attack. Jackson is comfortable looking downfield for wide receiver Rashod Bateman (16.8 yards per catch, nine touchdowns) or tight ends Isaiah Likely (three catches for 53 yards in the wild-card-round win over Pittsburgh) and Mark Andrews (11 touchdowns). Only five teams blitzed less frequently than the Bills in the regular season. They rely on defensive tackle Ed Oliver and edges Von Miller and Gregory Rousseau (team-high eight sacks, 24 quarterback hits) to create pressure without help from extra bodies. That approach did not work in the first matchup as Jackson’s pass protectors, led by tackles Ronnie Stanley and Roger Rosengarten, played at an elite level. Babich likes to keep five defensive backs on the field for the majority of snaps. He did not have one of his key chess pieces, nickel back Taron Johnson, the last time he faced the Ravens. It will be interesting to see if the Bills remain comfortable sticking with their smallish personnel against Henry’s power and the Ravens’ multiple tight ends. Buffalo has one of the league’s top cornerbacks in Christian Benford (10 passes defended, two forced fumbles), but his impact could be reduced against a Baltimore offense that doesn’t depend on throwing outside the numbers to its wide receivers. The Ravens led the league in yards per attempt and touchdown percentage in the red zone and ranked third in third-down efficiency, so forcing Jackson to be a pocket passer isn’t the winning strategy it was four years ago when the Bills eliminated Baltimore in the divisional round. EDGE: Ravens Buffalo passing game vs. Ravens pass defense Josh Allen completed just 16 of 29 passes for 180 yards against the Ravens in September, and Jackson’s top rival for NFL Most Valuable Player honors will have to do better than that for his team to turn the tables. The Bills don’t have an elite pass catcher, but Allen spreads his throws democratically to as many as eight targets, led by wide receiver Khalil Shakir and tight end Dalton Kincaid. The Bills added wide receiver Amari Cooper since last they played the Ravens. Offensive coordinator Joe Brady likes to stack four playmakers on one side with a fifth isolated on the other side. That muddies the picture for the defense, gives Allen plenty of clean reads and creates the potential for one-on-one shots against the Ravens’ most vulnerable cornerback, Brandon Stephens. The Bills targeted Stephens seven times, more than any other Baltimore defensive back, in September, and he gave up just two catches, per Pro Football Focus. READER POLL: Who will win the divisional round playoff game between Ravens and Bills? With Marlon Humphrey guarding the slot and Kyle Hamilton coming up from the back end, the Ravens have good answers. Their defensive communications have only improved since they beat the Bills. Marcus Williams still played every snap at safety in that game; Ar’Darius Washington has since replaced him and given coordinator Zach Orr’s defense more playmaking punch. But Allen excels at throwing into tight windows, and he’s just as good as Jackson at buying time until he can find a big play. He made an incredible throw on the run for a 52-yard hookup with Shakir in the last meeting with Baltimore, so the Ravens know they’ll have to stay disciplined whenever he scrambles. Allen extends plays and attempts difficult throws without turning the ball over (league-low eight giveaways) or taking many sacks. His offensive line, led by tackles Dion Dawkins and Spencer Brown, has protected him well. Buffalo’s loss to the Ravens was an exception as outside linebackers Odafe Oweh and Kyle Van Noy combined for eight pressures and three sacks. Oweh and Van Noy, along with defensive tackle Nnamdi Madubuike, will need to make their presence felt in the rematch. EDGE: Bills Ravens running game vs. Bills run defense Can the Bills find a way to account for both Henry and Jackson? They couldn’t in September, when the Ravens buried them with 271 rushing yards, 118 more than any other opponent this season. It would be easy to write that off as an anomaly, but the Ravens have done anomalous things to many talented defenses — see 299 yards on 50 carries last weekend against Pittsburgh. Jackson the runner has remained in the holster for much of this season, but he carried 15 times against Pittsburgh, keeping the ball on a string of option reads early in the game when the Ravens needed third-down conversions to keep moving. If he’s that engaged as a threat at the same time Monken is calling a grab bag of zone reads, counters and sweeps for Henry, what exactly is a defense supposed to do? The Ravens have averaged an absurd 247.5 rushing yards over their last four games and have been the league’s most efficient ground force all season. The Bills did not have three key run defenders, linebackers Matt Milano and Terrel Bernard and Johnson at the nickel, in September. They will be better equipped to present some resistance this time around, as reflected by their No. 8 DVOA ranking against the run. Miller and Rousseau are very good on the edges. Buffalo did an excellent job fitting gaps and tackled soundly in holding Denver to 79 rushing yards last weekend. But this is not a big, punishing defense, and it’s fair to wonder if the Ravens present an impossible matchup for the Bills. EDGE: Ravens Ravens running back Derrick Henry rushed for 186 yards in last weekend’s wild-card round against the Steelers. (Karl Merton Ferron/Staff) Bills running game vs. Ravens run defense The Ravens took away Buffalo’s balance in September by building a 21-3 lead in the first half. Running back James Cook became a nonfactor with nine carries for 39 yards, and Allen never busted loose. But this is a formidable ground attack that pounded Denver’s very good defense for 210 yards on 44 carries. Though Cook isn’t Henry, he averaged 4.9 yards per carry and scored 16 touchdowns in the regular season. Third-down back Ty Johnson is a dangerous run-catch threat. The 6-foot-5, 237-pound Allen is a devastating power runner in short-yardage and goal-line situations. He’s the reason the Bills ranked seventh in third-down efficiency and second, right behind the Ravens, in touchdown percentage in the red zone. The Ravens allowed the fewest yards per game and per carry in the league and held the Steelers to 29 yards on 11 carries in the wild-card round, so this will be strength against strength. Again, discipline against Allen will be key. Defensive tackle Travis Jones stood out in the previous win over Buffalo. Oweh and Van Noy set tough edges. Linebacker Roquan Smith and safeties Hamilton and Washington pack plenty of punch as playmakers. The Ravens’ offense will also be important to this equation, because if they’re playing with a lead, Cook might again fade from the Bills’ game plan. EDGE: Even Ravens special teams vs. Bills special teams Justin Tucker missed twice on a blustery night in Buffalo when the Bills eliminated the Ravens four years ago. Given that and given his string of misses through the first two-thirds of this season, there will be plenty of anxiety if Tucker lines up for a clutch field goal Sunday. He has not missed since the Ravens’ bye week, however, frequently splitting the uprights as he did so routinely through most of his career. Meanwhile, the Ravens continue to use waiver wire pickup Steven Sims as their punt returner despite several shaky catches. The Bills have struggled on special teams as well. Kicker Tyler Bass has missed five field goals, four of those between 24 and 29 yards, and five extra points. Brandon Codrington has been a bright spot, averaging 11.6 yards per punt return, but he’s dealing with a hamstring injury. EDGE: Ravens Ravens intangibles vs. Bills intangibles It’s the similarities that make the Ravens and Bills such compelling opponents. John Harbaugh and Sean McDermott are two of the winningest coaches in recent NFL history almost two decades after they worked together on Andy Reid’s Philadelphia Eagles staff. Neither has gotten over the hump presented by Reid’s Kansas City Chiefs, though Harbaugh won a Super Bowl 12 years ago with a very different team. Jackson and Allen are the jewels of a memorable 2018 quarterback class, piling up victories, creating indelible highlights and chasing an elusive Super Bowl appearance. They front balance powerhouses that appear to be peaking as they compete for another chance to knock off the Chiefs. The Bills have not lost at home this season. The harsher the cold, the happier they’ll be. But the Ravens will travel north with no fear, knowing they thumped Buffalo in September and beat far more playoff-bound opponents than the Bills. Jackson and his teammates will continue to be asked about past playoff clunkers, including their 17-3 loss in Buffalo at the end of the 2020 season, but in overpowering the Steelers, they did not look like a team haunted by those failures. Henry gives them a weapon seemingly immune to postseason pressure or foul weather. EDGE: Even Prediction These teams share so many strengths, and the one that jumps ahead early will have a significant advantage in reducing the other’s options. That was the Ravens in September. They can’t count on smothering Allen to the degree they did in that victory. He threatens a defense in so many ways without paying in sacks or turnovers. The Bills are also healthier than they were four months ago. But the Ravens were more explosive all season, and with Jackson and Henry, they seem to present an impossible problem for Buffalo’s modest-sized defenders. They’ll batter their way to another AFC championship game. Ravens 31, Bills 24 Have a news tip? Contact Childs Walker at daviwalker@baltsun.com, 410-332-6893 and x.com/ChildsWalker. View the full article Quote
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