ExtremeRavens Posted Thursday at 01:00 PM Posted Thursday at 01:00 PM Three of this weekend’s four NFL divisional round playoff games feature betting spreads of six points or more. One game, however, is expected to be a nailbiter. That game involves perhaps the NFL’s two top performing quarterbacks and a pair of AFC contenders in the Ravens and Bills. Lamar Jackson and Baltimore visit Josh Allen and Buffalo on Sunday at 6:30 p.m., and sportsbooks have the spread favoring the Ravens by about one point. If betting odds are any indication, Sunday’s game could be an all-time battle between two of the NFL’s best signal-callers. The quarterbacks don’t get much better, and the stakes don’t get much higher. “It’s win or go home,” Jackson said Wednesday at his weekly news conference. What are the odds? Spread: Ravens by 1 ½ (FanDuel) Total: 51 ½ points Moneyline: Ravens -118, Bills +100 Buffalo opened as a favorite at many sportsbooks, but the Ravens have since become the betting favorite. Baltimore has only been an underdog once this season, which came in its season-opening loss to Kansas City. The Ravens went 10-6-1 against the spread during the regular season, while the Bills went 10-7. Each team also covered in their wild-card round victories. The Ravens and Bills have a heavy tendency to skew toward the over, with 13 of Baltimore’s 17 regular-season games going over the projected point total. Eleven of Buffalo’s 17 games went over the total as well. Buffalo ranked second in the NFL in scoring during the regular season, with Baltimore ranking third. Detroit, the NFL’s top scoring offense, was the only other team to average more than 30 points per game. Bettors using wager-tracking site Pikkit don’t seem to care about those stats, as 58.9% of bets on the total tracked using the platform are on the under. Points, points and more points? In Week 4, the Ravens demolished the Bills by a final score of 35-10. Derrick Henry came one rushing yard shy of 200, and Baltimore’s defense had one of its best games of the season. While the Bills sputtered in Week 4, their offense has been exceptional over the late stretch of the season. Buffalo averaged 37.8 points per game in Weeks 12-17 and scored 31 in its first postseason game. Allen sat out Week 18, when the Bills scored just 16 points. The Bills scored 42 points against the Rams, 48 against the Lions and 31 against Denver. Even against playoff teams with respectable defenses, Buffalo’s offense has proven nearly impossible to stop. “I feel like we’ve grown quite a bit since that game,” Allen said of the Week 4 loss in Baltimore. “Obviously, [we] learned a lot from those moments.” Regardless of the defensive improvement from Baltimore in the final half of the season, it’s hard to see the Bills offense being shut down like it was Week 4. Buffalo averages 33.9 points per game at home, and the Bills are undefeated at home. As for Baltimore, it’s scored at least 28 points in all five games since its late-season bye week. Lamar Jackson hasn’t thrown an interception during the stretch, playing perhaps the best football of his career. Henry eclipsed 100 rushing yards in each of the past four games, and wide receiver Rashod Bateman stepped up against the Steelers (two catches on two targets for 24 yards and a touchdown) in Zay Flowers’ wild-card round absence. Tight ends Mark Andrews and Isaiah Likely combined for 80 yards on five receptions against Pittsburgh, giving Jackson a seemingly endless array of pass-catching options if the running game isn’t working. “They’ve got a lot of studs over there,” Allen said. With two of the best quarterbacks in the league squaring off Sunday, this game could be a shootout. Buffalo has played its fair share of high-scoring playoff thrillers with Allen at quarterback, including a 42-36 overtime loss to Kansas City in January 2022. This game might not push 80 total points like that legendary bout between great quarterbacks, but the frigid temperatures won’t stop these two high-powered offenses. Baltimore scored 35 in the first meeting, and Buffalo hasn’t shown a consistent ability to stop the run this season, posting the sixth-worst rushing defense grade on Pro Football Focus this year. Also, the Ravens’ recent defensive surge hasn’t come against an offense like Buffalo’s or a quarterback as highly esteemed as Allen. Both teams will score in bunches Sunday. Best bet: Over 51 1/2 points Have a news tip? Contact sports editor Bennett Conlin at bconlin@baltsun.com, 410-332-6200 and x.com/BennettConlin. View the full article Quote
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