Ravens Insider: Staff picks for NFL divisional round: Commanders vs. Lions, Texans vs. Chiefs and more

[ExtremeRavens]

Baltimore Sun staff writers pick every game of the NFL season. Here’s who they have winning in the divisional round of the playoffs:

Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs (Saturday, 4:30 p.m.)

Brian Wacker (3-3 last week; 184-80 overall): The Texans’ win over the Chargers last week suddenly seems to have a lot of people thinking they’ll be able to hang with the Chiefs at home. They won’t, not when Kansas City is coming off an extra week to prepare and is playing its best football when it matters most. Houston won’t be able to slow the Chiefs’ dynamic offense and Kansas City’s front along with its secondary will frustrate C.J. Stroud and running back Joe Mixon. Chiefs 31, Texans 14

Childs Walker (3-3 last week; 184-80 overall): The Texans rose from the dead in the wild-card round with their best defensive performance of the season. That doesn’t mean they’ll be able to do it again on the road against the defending Super Bowl champions. The Chiefs simply don’t lose games like this. Chiefs 24, Texans 14

Mike Preston (3-3 last week; 183-81 overall): The Texans beat the Chargers in a wild-card game. Ho-hum. Big deal. If they can upset the Chiefs, then they might be on to something, but that’s not going to happen. The Chiefs have a major advantage playing at home, and they also have a quarterback named Patrick Mahomes. Chiefs 28, Texans 13

C.J. Doon (5-1 last week; 173-105 overall): When these teams last met Dec. 21, the Texans had a chance to tie the game late in the fourth quarter. The Chiefs should win, but it’s not going to be easy, especially against a Houston defense that is coming off an incredible performance against the Chargers. DeMeco Ryans will make them earn it. Chiefs 20, Texans 17

Tim Schwartz (4-2 last week; 198-82 overall): This has been a weird year in Kansas City. The Chiefs didn’t look dominant for much of this season but still won nearly every week. They simply don’t lose close games. Patrick Mahomes and his supporting cast took a step back this season but under the bright lights of the postseason, they do enough to win. Houston is being overlooked, but I don’t see it pulling off the upset. Chiefs 24, Texans 20

Bennett Conlin (4-2 last week; 184-94 overall): It’s nearly impossible to go against the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes in the postseason. He’s 15-3 in the NFL playoffs, having won seven consecutive games and two consecutive Super Bowls. It’s far from a guarantee that Kansas City wins a third straight championship, but the Chiefs won’t stumble at home against a Texans team that’s 1-3 against teams playing in the divisional round. Chiefs 28, Texans 14

Washington Commanders at Detroit Lions (Saturday, 8 p.m.)

Wacker: This is another game in which the underdog’s defense will have trouble stopping the offense. The Lions led the NFL in scoring during the regular season and that’s not changing in this game. Jayden Daniels was terrific and poised last week but he won’t be able to keep up, even against a banged up Detroit defense.

Walker: Jayden Daniels will put up points against a Detroit defense that’s still banged up. But it’s difficult to envision Washington’s lackluster defense doing anything to limit the Lions’ high-scoring, ultra-balanced attack. Detroit’s home-field advantage feels real against an opponent that’s probably still a year or two away. Lions 34, Commanders 24 

Preston: Jayden Daniels will be included in next season’s list of top playmaking quarterbacks, but the Commanders need to add more talent around him, like the Ravens have done with Lamar Jackson. Detroit still has some issues on an injury-plagued defense, but the week off will help. Washington will score points, but the Lions will score many more. Lions 35, Commanders 18

Doon: At the risk of buying a little too much into the Jayden Daniels hype (I have him ranked as the fourth-best QB remaining in the playoffs), I’m going out on a limb and picking a big upset here. The Lions have felt like the storybook team all season, but they’re banged up and have allowed a ton of points down the stretch. The Commanders can score with the best of them, and they’ll be just as aggressive as Detroit coach Dan Campbell on fourth down. Commanders 38, Lions 35

Schwartz: Why not? These Commanders have found a way to win their past six games, almost all of which came down to the final moments. The Lions’ run defense is stout, but Jayden Daniels is not a traditional runner, and their pass defense allowed the fifth-most passing yards in the NFL this year. If Washington can avoid the big play from a Jahmyr Gibbs or Amon-Ra St. Brown, I like its chances. Commanders 34, Lions 31

Conlin: The Detroit Lions love to blitz (second-highest blitz rate in the NFL at 34.2%) and play man coverage. Washington quarterback Jayden Daniels excels against both, posting an 81.9 PFF season-long grade against the blitz and a 90.4 grade in the wild-card round when facing pressure. This is a great matchup for the Commanders’ offense, which should use no-huddle to wear down Detroit’s wounded defense. But can the Commanders slow down Jared Goff and Detroit’s offense, which led the NFL with 33.2 points scored per game in the regular season? I expect each coach to be highly aggressive on fourth down, which makes a Commanders upset feel quite possible. Lions 41, Commanders 35

Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles (Sunday, 3 p.m.)

Wacker: The Rams could be the darlings of the playoffs. Their domination of the Vikings in the wild-card round was impressive, but Minnesota got exposed again in the postseason. Rams quarterback Matt Stanford is tough and capable but the Eagles have a nasty defense, the best offensive line in the game and will bully their way to a win in this one. Eagles 23, Rams 13

Walker: The Rams are everyone’s favorite upset special coming off their dismantling of the Vikings. The Eagles inspired little enthusiasm with their conservative game plan against a Packers team that did nothing to push them. But the Rams aren’t built to stand up to Philadelphia’s bullying on both sides of the ball, especially not on a wintry East Coast afternoon. Enjoy them or not, the Eagles just might ugly their way to the Super Bowl. Eagles 23, Rams 16

Preston: The Eagles are old school. They win games at the line of scrimmage. They maul opponents on both sides of the ball, and if a team can win with its front four, that allows it to do a lot of things defensively. Offensively, the Eagles are one dimensional, but what a dimension with halfback Saquon Barkley. The Eagles’ offense is similar to the one used by the Ravens in 2000. Philadelphia doesn’t have a strong passing game, but it is effective in combination with Barkley, just like the Ravens were with Jamal Lewis. Eagles 21, Rams 17

Doon: The Rams were no match for Saquon Barkley in the regular season, allowing the star running back to pile up 255 rushing yards and two touchdowns in a 37-20 Eagles victory. Even with Jalen Hurts struggling of late, Philadelphia can lean on Barkley and its outstanding offensive line to overpower Los Angeles at the line of scrimmage. The Eagles’ ascending defense should also be able to pressure Matthew Stafford and contain the Rams’ passing game. Eagles 27, Rams 20

Schwartz: Philadelphia intercepted Packers quarterback Jordan Love three times in the wild-card game and didn’t need to do much offensively to advance. It will need to play much better to beat these Rams, who are peaking right now with a rejuvenated Matthew Stafford. Saquon Barkley isn’t slowing down and could thrive even more in the freezing temperatures. I think the Eagles’ secondary does enough to slow Stafford and Puka Nacua. Eagles 28, Rams 20

Conlin: The Eagles and Rams met on Nov. 24, and Los Angeles had no answer for Barkley, who rushed for 255 yards and two touchdowns. If the Rams don’t shore up their run defense Sunday, it’ll be a long afternoon. Matthew Stafford has led Los Angeles to six wins in its last seven games, as he and coach Sean McVay are hot at the right time. Philadelphia has too much firepower in this game, though, and Barkley will make the difference. Eagles 27, Rams 21

Have a news tip? Contact sports editor Tim Schwartz at timschwartz@baltsun.com, 410-332-6200 and x.com/timschwartz13.

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