ExtremeRavens Posted 13 hours ago Posted 13 hours ago It’s not often the statistical model used to determine ESPN’s matchup predictor spits out a perfect coin flip. On Monday morning, the best odds it could offer for the Ravens and Bills, two titans of the NFL playing in Sunday’s AFC divisional round, was 50-50. It hasn’t tipped more than half a percentage point since. As pundits and fans alike spout predictions trying to make sense of such an evenly matched contest, it’s natural to lean on their Week 4 matchup in Baltimore, a 35-10 Ravens rout on national television. There’s one issue with that: These teams have both evolved dramatically since September. “We look at [that game] from kind of a scientific type of football perspective,” Ravens coach John Harbaugh said, “in terms of what did they see? What are they going to try to stop? What are they going to play against us? Where are the matchups now that weren’t there then, or that are different or the same?” That early in the season, the Ravens were climbing out of a 1-2 hole shouldering all sorts of questions about what their offensive identity might be. They needed to find their “mojo,” Lamar Jackson said. And Buffalo, which scored 112 points in its first three games and is 9-0 in Orchard Park this season, took their first right hook to the chin at M&T Bank Stadium. “Learned a lot from those moments,” Bills quarterback Josh Allen said this week. “Going back and watching it obviously wasn’t our best effort. Felt like we didn’t play our best football.” Derrick Henry, who bullied Buffalo for 199 yards on 24 carries, added: “We played a great game against them tonight. We were the better team tonight. But I’m sure they’ll fix things in the next coming weeks.” Buffalo’s defense finished the regular season with a league-high plus-24 turnover margin. Cornerback Taron Johnson has turned two takeaways into touchdowns. The Bills are also the 26th-worst team at getting off the field on third down, according to football statistician Ben Baldwin, which bottomed out between Weeks 14 and 17, giving up a staggering 9.9 yards per attempt on third downs. To make matters worse, Buffalo has seen a gradual decline in EPA per play allowed since their September soiree with the Ravens. Ravens/Bills defenses moving in opposite directions as season has gone on. Notable second-half improvements for BAL and gradual regression for BUF. pic.twitter.com/v8riGRqFxh — Football Insights (@fball_insights) January 14, 2025 Baltimore experienced the inverse effect. Muting the Bills was an outlier in an otherwise rocky start to the season. Cornerback Marlon Humphrey said it feels like now they have a different identity on the heels of personnel changes and vibe shifts despite playing “decently well” that night. Their defensive resuscitation since Week 11 has been well documented, skying up power rankings from the worst pass defense in the league to hanging with the best. The Ravens have steadily boasted one of the NFL’s best rushing defenses, which could be a determinant Sunday night. To which safety Kyle Hamilton pointed out Buffalo’s evolving reliance on the run game. Against the Ravens, lead back James Cook only touched the ball nine times for 39 yards — tied for his second-fewest single-game carries and fifth-lowest output of a 1,000-yard season. That’s because the Bills fell behind early and were forced to play catch up through the air. Rushing behind one of the best offensive lines in the league became a staple of their offense. “They are really committed to the run,” Hamilton said. “It is definitely a respectable run game. They’ve hurt people — they hurt the Broncos last week with it. I think it is big for us as a defense to knock the run out first before we get to anything else.” Both offenses have ascended similar trajectory thanks to MVP-caliber quarterback play. The Ravens finished the season with, not only the best offensive DVOA in the league, but the NFL’s fourth-best offensive DVOA since 1978, right behind the 16-0 New England Patriots. Lamar Jackson played the best all-around season of his career piloting a franchise-record 7,224 total yards — the third most by a team in NFL single-season history. Meanwhile, Buffalo’s 30.9 points per game trailed only Detroit. They laid an egg in Baltimore, then scored at least 20 points in every game until Week 18, when they rested starters. Allen’s 12 rushing scores are the second most of any quarterback and Cook’s 18 are tied with Henry for second most in the NFL. “It’s the battle of two heavyweights,” defensive end Von Miller told local reporters. Added Ravens offensive coordinator Todd Monken: “Ultimately, for both teams, it’s gonna come down to what they do well, irrespective of what that game was 14 weeks ago.” In comparing a Sunday night in September with this weekend’s AFC divisional round, there are a few notable additions and subtractions. Baltimore had a healthy Zay Flowers that day. Although the second-year receiver and first-time Pro Bowl selection only caught one pass for 10 yards, he has been an integral part of a profitable Ravens passing attack. He finished the regular season with 1,059 yards on 74 catches. Flowers’ availability Sunday is still up in the air as he recovers from a knee injury suffered in Week 18. Meanwhile, Buffalo played Week 4 without a pair of All-Pro defenders because of injuries. Linebacker Matt Milano and Johnson, who famously settled a January 2021 playoff meeting with a 101-yard pick-six that still haunts Jackson, are both healthy for Sunday. As is linebacker Terrel Bernard, another addition to shore up the middle of the field. The Bills also added wideout Amari Cooper at the trade deadline, and he has 22 catches for 305 yards and two scores in nine games. The Week 4 matchup can be a data point for what is possible to come this weekend. It won’t be a valuable predictor for this coin flip game. “Both teams are better across the board,” Harbaugh said. “Both teams have kind of defined their personalities a little bit more over the course of the season. It’s kind of what you’d expect at this point.” Have a news tip? Contact Sam Cohn at scohn@baltsun.com, 410-332-6200 and x.com/samdcohn. View the full article Quote
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