ExtremeRavens Posted April 24 Posted April 24 Call it art, science or just plain luck, some have mastered the NFL mock draft. Thousands of analysts, bloggers and enthusiasts predict who will come off the board in the first round every year, and even the elite prognosticators don’t have better than a 50% hit rate when it comes to matching team and player. Identifying the top 32 prospects is one thing. Figuring out where they’ll go is another. This year is more uncertain than others in recent memory. Given the lack of confidence in the order of picks anywhere from the New York Giants’ selection at No. 3 overall all the way to the Philadelphia Eagles at No. 32, it’s hard to get a read on who might be available, let alone a fit for the Ravens. But fans don’t need to scour every mock draft on the internet to get a good sense of who could be wearing purple and black next. According to Huddle Report, which has been tracking the accuracy of mock drafters since 2002, a clear top group has formed. By awarding one point for the correct player placed in Round 1 and two points for every player-team match, the website grades the accuracy of each mock submitted and ranks them accordingly. Using those rankings, here’s what the most accurate mock drafters expect the Ravens to do with the No. 27 overall pick in the first round, which begins Thursday night in Green Bay, Wisconsin: Jason Boris, Times News (ranked No. 1): Georgia safety Malaki Starks Boris is the most accurate mock drafter of the past five years, and it’s not even his day job. According to a recent Washington Post article, he manages recreation grants for the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. Last year, he correctly predicted 29 of the 32 first-round prospects and matched 15 of those players with the team that selected them for a score of 59 points. His five-year average of 46.2 leads the pack. Starks has been a popular mock draft pick for the Ravens throughout the process, and Boris agrees, noting that the versatile safety can “help shore up a pass defense that finished 31st last season.” Starks, a former five-star recruit, is ranked No. 21 on the consensus big board compiled by Mock Draft Database, so this would be another case of a top prospect falling to Baltimore. Boris notes, however, that other names on his radar are South Carolina safety Nick Emmanwori, Alabama guard Tyler Booker, Tennessee edge rusher James Pearce Jr. and Texas A&M edge rusher Shemar Stewart. But, he writes, “Starks’ fit and pedigree may be too good to pass up.” Brendan Donahue, Sharp Football Analysis (No. 2): Starks Make that 2-for-2 when it comes to Starks. Donahue previously connected the Ravens to Ohio State guard/tackle Donovan Jackson, Emmanwori, Booker and Stewart and his previous mock drafts, but he aligned closer to consensus with his final predictions. For those looking at the betting markets, Donahue’s best bet is safety to be the first position selected by the Ravens at +400 odds. Baltimore already has All-Pro Kyle Hamilton at safety and recently re-signed restricted free agent Ar’Darius Washington, but Hamilton is due for a likely record-setting contract extension soon and Washington becomes an unrestricted free agent at the end of the season. Xavier Cromartie, Fantasy Football Metrics (No. 3): Oregon defensive tackle Derrick Harmon Cromartie explains that his mock drafts are “based upon his draft research and what his sources are communicating to him at this time — and are not based on his personal scouting preferences.” In a twist, he gives the Ravens depth on the defensive line, but for an interesting reason: Harmon is “possibly sliding a bit on medicals.” Oregon defensive lineman Derrick Harmon runs a drill at the NFL scouting combine in Indianapolis in February. Harmon is ranked No. 24 on the consensus board and is a favorite of many draft analysts. (Michael Conroy/AP) That news only started trickling out during draft week, so it needs to be taken with a healthy grain of salt. But Bryan Broaddus of 105.3 The Fan in Dallas first noted that Harmon had a medical red flag, and NFL Network’s Mike Garafolo later said that the concern is Harmon’s shoulder. Neither provided exact details. “That’s how this thing works,” Garafolo said in an appearance on the PHNX Cardinals podcast. “All of a sudden, if there are two guys and you’ve got a tiebreaker, one of them has clean medicals and the other does not, then we’ll go with the clean medicals sometimes.” Harmon is ranked No. 24 on the consensus board and is a favorite of many draft analysts, so the Ravens would be getting a steal if they are comfortable with his long-term health. Lou Pickney, MockDraftNFL.com (No. 4): Starks Chalk up another one for Starks. Pickney, who has been a draft analyst since 2003, is also on board with Baltimore adding a talented safety to shore up its secondary. “Starks is exceptionally fast, particularly for his size, to the point he feels like a prototype for the ideal modern NFL safety,” he writes. Mike Band, Next Gen Stats/RosterWatch (No. 5): Starks Getting the hint yet? Band has created a mock draft for 21 straight years, and his resume is unassailable. He’s ranked fifth in overall accuracy among 75 draft experts over the past five years, including a second-place finish among 172 experts last year. In 2009, he had the most accurate mock on record. Each year, Band releases a draft cheat sheet projecting each team’s first-round big board based on predraft interest, team needs and organizational philosophies. This year, he ranks the Ravens’ board as follows: Georgia S Malaki Starks Michigan DT Kenneth Grant Oregon DT Derrick Harmon North Dakota State OT/G Grey Zabel Boston College EDGE Donovan Ezeiruaku Alabama G Tyler Booker Ohio State WR Emeka Egbuka South Carolina S Nick Emmanwori Michigan CB Will Johnson So in this scenario, the Ravens get their perceived top prospect on their board. Eddie Brown, San Diego Union-Tribune (No. 6): Alabama guard Tyler Booker The Ravens could certainly use help at guard, where Andrew Vorhees and Daniel Faalele are currently projected as starters. According to Brown, “everything about Booker screams Ravens.” Baltimore has long coveted Alabama prospects, dating to former Crimson Tide star Ozzie Newsome’s tenure as general manager before Eric DeCosta took over in 2019. In addition to his college pedigree, Brown notes Booker’s “size, brute strength and enough functional athleticism to dominate in the run game” as reasons for Baltimore’s interest. Booker’s athletic testing ranked poorly among offensive linemen, but the Ravens notably selected Oklahoma tackle Orlando Brown Jr. in the third round in 2018 after a historically bad combine performance and he became a four-time Pro Bowl selection. Booker, who is ranked No. 29 on the consensus board, is beloved by scouts for his leadership, physicality and durability and could be picked much earlier in the first round. Have a news tip? Contact sports editor C.J. Doon at cdoon@baltsun.com, 410-332-6200 and x.com/CJDoon. View the full article Quote
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