ExtremeRavens Posted 17 hours ago Posted 17 hours ago To go, or not to go; that was the question. It was the one the Ravens were facing late Sunday night in Orchard Park, New York, where they were clinging to a two-point lead over the Bills and facing fourth-and-3 from their own 38-yard line with 1:33 remaining. It was the one still lingering uneasily less than 24 hours after a stunning collapse and 41-40 defeat. Go for it, get it and the game is over. Go for it, don’t get it and the Bills are sitting pretty already in range for a go-ahead field goal. Or, don’t go for it, punt and rely on the defense to stop quarterback and reigning NFL Most Valuable Player Josh Allen, who was inevitable down the stretch at Highmark Stadium. By now, the NFL world and beyond know which door Ravens coach John Harbaugh chose. Allen and the Bills, of course, made Harbaugh pay for his decision to punt and put the ball in Allen’s hands. “I did think about going for it,” Harbaugh said after the game. “If it’s fourth-and-3, if you don’t get it, they’re in field goal range. So, I think punting it is probably what most people would do there.” On Monday and with the benefit of hindsight, not much had changed for the man in charge of making such decisions. “I don’t think you could sit there and say, ‘Well, I should’ve been more aggressive,” Harbaugh said in his day-after debriefing in Owings Mills. “I don’t think you can definitively say that’s the right thing either. You can’t really say that for sure. Because you could make that choice and could easily be having the conversation the other way.” The analytics suggested the choice wasn’t that difficult. According to data guru Ben Baldwin and his Fourth Down Bot, going for the first down on what he had as a fourth-and-2 would have increased the Ravens’ chances of winning to 84%, up from 76% from punting. They also had a 60% chance of being successful, according to the model. ESPN analytics suggested a nearly identical outcome and still favored Baltimore trying to pick up the first down on fourth-and-3 and even a little beyond that distance. But instead of the Ravens going for it, like they had deep in their own territory late in the first half of a game against the Chargers last season, Harbaugh opted to punt. Jordan Stout booted a 42-yard kick that went out of bounds on the 20. Nine plays later, 41-year-old Matt Prater knocked in the game-winning field goal as time expired. From where the second-longest tenured coach in the league sat, though, it wasn’t quite so simple. “The ball gets batted down there it’s, ‘Why didn’t you just give it to [running back] Derrick [Henry] or put it in [quarterback] Lamar’s [Jackson] hands and let him run it?’ That’s the catch-22 of the whole conversation,” he said. It was a choice, Harbaugh also said, that had to be made quickly and with multiple variables. “You gotta say, ‘Do we have a call we really like? Do we have a call we love here?’” he said. “Because you have to send the punt team out or you’re gonna have a delay of game, or have to send the offense out or you’re not gonna get the play off.” Ravens coach John Harbaugh, left, talks with an official before Sunday night's game against the Bills. (Gene J. Puskar/AP) The Ravens were flush with three timeouts, so even if they didn’t get a first down, they could have used said timeouts to stop the Bills from running the clock down to a few seconds, then kicking the game-winner. Harbaugh also said he would have had to use one of those timeouts to get the play in before the play clock expired, however. There was also the matter of Jackson, who said after the game that he was cramping at that point. “If I wasn’t, everybody in here knows I would’ve been trying to go for a fourth-and-3,” the star quarterback said. He wasn’t the only option, either. Henry tore through the Bills’ defense most of the night, racking up 169 yards and two scores on 18 carries. The Bills had also largely stymied Baltimore’s ground attack late in the fourth, which essentially left Harbaugh with an existential choice. Did he trust his defense enough to stop a player that it struggled to contain for much of the evening? Or could he live with putting the ball in the hands of his best player — Jackson — and live with the outcome? Last season against the Chargers, he chose offense. The Baltimore Sun’s Ravens report card: Position-by-position grades for 41-40 loss to Bills The circumstances were different, but not so much to be cast aside. Trailing 17-10 late in the second quarter and facing a fourth-and-1 from their own 16, the Ravens called a direct snap to tight end Mark Andrews, who surged forward to successfully convert the first down. Baltimore eventually went on to win, 30-23. Like then, the numbers favored the bold this time. There were also the plays leading up to it to consider. On first down, Henry picked up just 1 yard. On second down and with Henry on the sideline, receiver Zay Flowers took a read-option from the quarterback and gained no yards. On third down, Jackson’s pass to receiver DeAndre Hopkins picked up 6 yards. That left the decision then to Harbaugh. “I’m not shying away from putting our defense out there,” Harbaugh said. “If you get stopped on fourth-and-3, it’s, ‘Did you think about punting the ball, putting your defense out there and giving them a chance to win the game?’ That would’ve been the next conversation because they would’ve been in field goal range already. “I trust our defense, and I’m going to trust our defense in a lot of big situations because our defense is going to be really, really good. I know there’s doubt about that right now, but I guarantee our defense is going to play really good defense.” Have a news tip? Contact Brian Wacker at bwacker@baltsun.com, 410-332-6200 and x.com/brianwacker1. Josh Tolentino: Ravens show vs. Bills that some things never change | COMMENTARY View the full article Quote
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