ExtremeRavens Posted September 26 Posted September 26 Either the Ravens or Chiefs — two juggernauts of the AFC — will wake up Monday morning with a 1-3 record, a steep hill to climb but a long season to do it. Baltimore hasn’t won at Arrowhead Stadium in the Lamar Jackson era. Could Sunday be different? Who will have the advantage in this all-important Week 4 meeting? Ravens passing game vs. Chiefs pass defense Worries about the offensive line have suddenly trumped Jackson’s historic passing numbers. The Ravens megawatt quarterback has the best career passer rating in NFL history while leading the league in passing touchdowns (9) and yards per pass attempt (9.6). But him taking seven sacks against the Lions raises an eyebrow. Superman can’t always be Superman. Sometimes he needs to be Clark Kent, with a little help from the Justice League. It’s that much tougher when his average time to throw declined from second best in the NFL last year (2.92 seconds) to 11th (2.76), according to SumerSports. Jackson’s response to leading the league in scoring with a 1-2 record, on the back of an unreliable defense and shoddy offensive line play, was that they need to “put more points on the board.” Kansas City is a middle-of-the-pack team in most defensive categories. With losses to the Chargers and Eagles, the Chiefs haven’t appeared to be the dominant force they’ve been in their recent dynasty. But defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo knows how to make Jackson uncomfortable, pouring on man coverage and blitz packages that tend to force turnovers. That’s how mistakes, the kind that have plagued the Ravens’ offense this year, snowball. EDGE: Chiefs Chiefs passing game vs. Ravens pass defense Surprisingly, this might belong to Baltimore’s secondary. Not because they’ve inspired such overwhelming confidence — although Nate Wiggins and Chidobe Awuzie have both looked sharp at corner — but because there’s a dullness to Kansas City’s offense that few expected. If Mahomes isn’t pulling a rabbit out of a hat, the offense looks more like an overcast September evening — not quite warm enough and a bit of an uncomfortable watch. According to The Guardian, 65% of Mahomes’ throws this year have been below 10 yards and he’s getting rid of the ball a full half-second quicker than his career average. That opens the door for a confidence-boosting effort out of the Ravens’ secondary, which ranks 31st in net passing yards per game. They have one interception and haven’t walled up in the red zone. But Baltimore’s back end is far more talented than they’ve shown. As Kyle Hamilton said Monday night, and again Thursday afternoon, “the sky isn’t falling.” It’s not a philosophy issue or personnel issue like it was last year. “I think it hurts a little more when you come out like that and it’s not characteristic,” he said. A vulnerable Kansas City passing attack might be just what the Ravens need. EDGE: Ravens Ravens running game vs. Chiefs run defense Since joining the Ravens, there have been times when Derrick Henry looks upset (like after any tough loss) and there have been times where he’s all smiles (remember when he eviscerated the Bills in Week 4 last year?). Monday night might have been the first time he faced the cameras so distraught. Never in his Hall-of-Fame-worthy career has Henry fumbled the ball so frequently. Embarrassed to even have the discussion, he has apologized profusely and promised to make the necessary corrections. Even if he holds the ball “high and tight,” the Chiefs haven’t allowed any running back this year go for more than 88 yards. Saquon Barkley, who rushed for 2,000 yards last year, couldn’t break off a run for more than 13 yards with 22 chances. Henry hasn’t bludgeoned an opposing offense since Week 1 in Buffalo, and even then he let the ball touch the ground in a crucial spot. Sunday might not be the one to ease his pain, but Henry knows as well as anyone how important the matchup is: “It is a huge game. … You live for big games like that.” EDGE: Chiefs Chiefs running game vs. Ravens run defense Unsurprisingly, the Chiefs’ ground game starts with Mahomes, who leads the league in quarterback rushing yards (125). The three-time Super Bowl champion is averaging 6.9 yards per carry, the highest mark of his career. That, plus the complementary contributions of running backs Isaiah Pacheco and Kareem Hunt, is the challenge that lies ahead for a beat-up Ravens front. All-Pro Nnamdi Madubuike is out with a neck injury, fellow starting defensive tackle Travis Jones is dinged up (he was limited during Thursday’s practice), next man up Broderick Washington hasn’t practiced this week and veteran outside linebacker Kyle Van Noy is still on the shelf with a hamstring injury. The Chiefs don’t pose the same ground power as the Lions, who gashed Baltimore for more than 220 yards on the ground thanks to Sonic and Knuckles. But Mahomes and company could make life difficult for a reeling defense. EDGE: Chiefs Ravens special teams vs. Chiefs special teams Kansas City’s Harrison Butker isn’t the world beater he has been in recent years. In nine field goal attempts, Butker has a miss from 40 yards and 50-plus. Butker also two extra point misses, tied for most in the NFL. Tyler Loop, on the other hand, is a perfect 5-for-5 on field goal attempts with one missed extra point try. The Ravens rookie’s biggest hitch this season has been his league-leading penalties on kickoffs — an experiment with the new rule that has assisted in three touchdowns for opposing teams. If this game comes down to the battle of the kickers, between a rookie or the vet, a three-week sample size favors Loop. EDGE: Ravens Ravens intangibles vs. Chiefs intangibles Consider this: The Jackson-led Ravens are 1-5 against the Chiefs and have never beat this decade’s dynasty in Kansas City. In those games, Jackson’s completion rate (57.3%) and passer rating (80.7) plummet from his career averages of 65.1% and 103.1. Jackson’s touchdown-to-turnover ratio is 9 to 7. For his career, the two-time NFL Most Valuable Player has thrown more than three times as many touchdowns as he has interceptions. Jackson has thrown nine touchdown passes this season without a single interception. No defense tends to keep the mystifying scrambler in check like Kansas City. In this star-studded quarterback battle, it’s more likely Mahomes has a field day opposite the Ravens’ defense than Jackson does versus Spagnuolo’s brain child. “It will be a great test for us,” Mahomes told reporters, “to go up against a team that’s going to be as hungry as we are.” EDGE: Chiefs Prediction Neither team has lived up to their stratospheric expectations, with both below .500 in desperate need of a respectable win. Based on the history between these teams, the propensity for Spagnuolo to keep Jackson guessing and how downtrodden Baltimore’s defense is going into Arrowhead Stadium, expect the Chiefs to edge this one out. As has been the case with every Ravens game this season, it should be a high-scoring affair. The Ravens lead the league with 37 points per game, but they’ve also allowed the second most points (32). Mahomes’ eyes are as wide as they’ve been all season. Chiefs 31, Ravens 24. Have a news tip? Contact Sam Cohn at scohn@baltsun.com, 410-332-6200 and x.com/samdcohn. View the full article Quote
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