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ExtremeRavens: The Sanctuary

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One team in NFL history started its season 1-3 and went on to win the Super Bowl. The group was led by perhaps the greatest quarterback of all time.

The New England Patriots found themselves sitting at 1-3 in 2001, which is the same situation the Ravens find themselves in this year after an ugly 37-20 loss to the Chiefs. New England overcame an injury to starting quarterback Drew Bledsoe in Week 2 of the 2001 season, as backup Tom Brady led them to an 11-3 record in his starts. Brady, of course, went on to win the first of his seven Super Bowl titles that year.

That New England team rallied after starting 1-3 (and 3-4) to put together a spectacular finish to the season. The Patriots won 11 of their final 12 games, including the postseason. Of the 11 wins, seven came by one possession and three came in overtime.

Baltimore can certainly point to that New England team as an example for hope after its 1-3 start, which has also included notable injuries. Quarterback Lamar Jackson was among the key contributors to exit the Chiefs loss with an injury, and star defensive tackle Nnamdi Madubuike landed on injured reserve last week with a neck injury.

“I believe we’re going to be a good football team,” coach John Harbaugh said Sunday. “We’re just not a good enough football team yet.”

Still, history suggests an uphill climb for this Baltimore team.

Since 1990, 35 teams have made the postseason after starting 1-3, with only the 2001 Patriots hoisting the Lombardi Trophy. Since the playoff field expanded to 14 teams in 2020, just five teams have started 1-3 and made the playoffs. One of those teams, the Washington Football Team in 2020 benefited from a woeful NFC East. Washington started its season 1-5 and made the playoffs as a 7-9 division champion.

With the Pittsburgh Steelers at 3-1, it seems unlikely the Ravens can count on winning the AFC North with a losing record. Baltimore still gets both of its head-to-head meetings with Pittsburgh, though. The Bengals, expected to be an AFC North contender, are 2-1 (and play Monday night) but without quarterback Joe Burrow, who could miss most of the season with turf toe. The Browns are just 1-3 with a head-to-head loss to the Ravens.

Betting odds reflect Baltimore’s sluggish start, but the oddsmakers are far from done with Baltimore. Once the Super Bowl betting favorite this season, the Ravens now hold the fourth-shortest odds to win the title. It’s a notable drop through four weeks, but sportsbooks aren’t ready to say it’s a lost season. Harbaugh isn’t either.

“There’s football to be played, and there’s a division to be won,” Harbaugh said. “We’ve got to find a way to become good enough to win it.”

Winning the division wouldn’t guarantee a deep playoff run that fans, players and coaches so desperately want. Of the five teams to make the playoffs since 2020 after a 1-3 start, none made it past the divisional round. It’s rare that a legitimate Super Bowl contender opens the season with three losses in its first four games.

Baltimore faces another 1-3 team falling well short of expectations in Week 5. The Houston Texans, who made the playoffs a season ago, started 0-3 before beating the Titans on Sunday for their first victory.

“I’m thinking about, ‘How can we beat the Texans?” Ravens safety Kyle Hamilton said after Sunday’s loss.

Both sides desperately need a win, and history says it’s a championship elimination game, if the teams haven’t already played themselves out of a realistic shot of winning it all. No team has ever won the Super Bowl after a 1-4 start to their season.

Have a news tip? Contact sports editor Bennett Conlin at bconlin@baltsun.com, 410-332-6200 and x.com/BennettConlin.

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