ExtremeRavens Posted Friday at 11:00 AM Posted Friday at 11:00 AM It’s still too early to give up on the Ravens. Just look at the numbers. While history suggests that it’s an uphill climb for a 1-3 team to bounce back and make the postseason — just 11 of 88 squads with that record have done it since 2015 — not many 1-3 teams are as talented on paper as Baltimore. As such, the playoff projection systems still consider the Ravens more likely than not to be playing meaningful football in January. Entering a Week 4 game against the visiting Houston Texans with backup quarterback Cooper Rush likely stepping in for injured star Lamar Jackson, the NFL’s Next Gen Stats still give the Ravens a 64% chance of making the playoffs. That would increase to 74% with a victory and would only drop to 57% with a loss. That’s pretty remarkable, considering only 17 NFL teams that lost four of their first five games would go on to make the playoffs, including the 2024 Los Angeles Rams (and nearly the 2024 Cincinnati Bengals). For example, per Next Gen Stats, the six other 1-3 teams this season all have a 42% chance or less to make the playoffs. Excluding the Texans, a playoff team in each of the past two seasons, that number drops to 14% or worse. The Washington Post’s playoff forecast, which is produced by simulating every game 25,000 times, is even more bullish, giving the Ravens an 80% chance to make the postseason. That’s much higher than the AFC North-leading Pittsburgh Steelers, who at 3-1 have a 59% chance to make the field. In fact, only the undefeated Buffalo Bills (4-0) have better odds than Baltimore at greater than 99%. That’s because The Post’s model still considers the Ravens one of the strongest teams in the NFL. Baltimore’s predicted margin of victory against an average opponent on a neutral field is plus-4.5, which ranks sixth behind only the Detroit Lions (+7.5), Bills (+6.5), Philadelphia Eagles (+6.5), Kansas City Chiefs (+5.5) and Green Bay Packers (+5). All three of Baltimore’s losses have come against that top tier. ESPN’s Football Power Index is skeptical of the Ravens, though. FPI, which represents how many points above or below average a team is based on 10,000 simulations of the rest of the season, has the Ravens at just plus-0.3, which ranks 15th. For comparison, the 2024 Ravens, who went 12-5 en route to a second straight AFC North title, ranked first at a whopping plus-8.1. Still, FPI gives the Ravens a 70% chance to make the playoffs, the sixth-best odds in the AFC narrowly behind the Steelers (71%). A softer finish to the season is a big reason, with Baltimore’s remaining strength of schedule ranking ninth-easiest, according to FPI. Meanwhile, Pro Football Focus shows how devastating it would be for Jackson to miss an extended period of time. The two-time NFL Most Valuable Player could be out two to three weeks after injuring his hamstring against the Kansas City Chiefs, The Baltimore Sun reported. With Rush, who was 9-5 in eight seasons as a spot starter for the Cowboys, PFF gives the Ravens just a 34% chance to make the playoffs and an average of just 7.5 wins this season. It’s worth noting that those projections don’t know exactly how to account for the Ravens’ injury woes. In addition to Jackson, Baltimore could also be without middle linebacker Roquan Smith (hamstring), safety Kyle Hamilton (groin), cornerbacks Marlon Humphrey (calf) and Chidobe Awuzie (hamstring) and fullback Patrick Ricard (calf), all of whom missed practice this week. Several other key players, including left tackle Ronnie Stanley (ankle) and cornerback Nate Wiggins (elbow), are also banged up. There’s also the format to consider. This is the fifth season with an expanded playoff field after the NFL bumped the total number of participants from 12 to 14. At the moment, the Steelers (3-1), Indianapolis Colts (3-1), Jacksonville Jaguars (3-1), Denver Broncos (2-2), New England Patriots (2-2) and Texans (1-3) are the teams most likely fighting for those three wild-card spots behind the four division champions. On a neutral field with Jackson healthy, it’s likely that none of those teams would be favored to beat the Ravens. But at this point in the season, Jackson’s health is a huge “what if.” Have a news tip? Contact sports editor C.J. Doon at cdoon@baltsun.com, 410-332-6200 and x.com/CJDoon. View the full article Quote
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