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Ravens Insider: Will the Ravens miss the playoffs? Another loss would be costly.


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In 2008, the New England Patriots were coming off an undefeated season, had the league’s reigning Most Valuable Player in Tom Brady at quarterback and were preseason favorites to win the Super Bowl.

But Brady suffered a season-ending injury in the season opener and New England missed the playoffs, albeit with an 11-5 record. The Patriots became the only Super Bowl favorite in the past 20 years to miss the playoffs entirely.

Sound familiar? The Ravens — once favored alongside the Buffalo Bills and Philadelphia Eagles to win the Super Bowl in the preseason — are 1-3 and will be without star quarterback Lamar Jackson for at least one game (and maybe longer).

“The mindset is go win the football game. That hasn’t changed,” running back Derrick Henry said.

Luckily for Baltimore, there’s historical precedent for 1-3 teams making the playoffs. In the Super Bowl era, 43 teams have made the playoffs after beginning 1-3. Since 2015, 11 teams that started 1-3 have qualified for the postseason. Teams that start 2-3 frequently make the postseason, as well.

But if the Ravens were to lose to the Houston Texans on Sunday, they would drop to 1-4. Using history as a guide, their playoff chances would take a drastic hit.

Only 16 teams have reached the playoffs after starting 1-4 — and just 13 since 1990 — according to USA Today. That’s less than 3% of all playoff teams in that span. The Los Angeles Rams accomplished the feat last season, winning nine of their last 12 games and advancing to the NFC divisional round. The 2024 Cincinnati Bengals almost did, too, after winning five straight to end the season at 9-8.

The Ravens do have some variables in their favor, though. For one, they face the eighth-easiest remaining schedule in the league based on opponents’ win percentage. Baltimore still has games against the Miami Dolphins, Cleveland Browns, New York Jets, the Cincinnati Bengals (twice) and the New England Patriots before the season ends. On paper, Baltimore is set to face only three likely playoff teams: the Green Bay Packers, Pittsburgh Steelers and Rams.

“Everything we feel like we can get better at, we’re going to fight like hell to fix it,” offensive coordinator Todd Monken said. “I know we got the people to do it.”

They also should receive a boost when several starters return from injury, though it’s unclear when that will happen. Jackson was ruled out Sunday with a hamstring injury, and The Baltimore Sun reported that he could miss two to three weeks. Linebacker Roquan Smith (hamstring) and cornerbacks Marlon Humphrey (calf) and Chidobe Awuzie (hamstring) also won’t play against Houston, while safety Kyle Hamilton (groin), left tackle Ronnie Stanley and outside linebacker Odafe Oweh (eye) are questionable.

In total, 15 players appeared on Baltimore’s injury report this week, including 11 starters. The bye week on Nov. 2 will come at a much-needed time.

Baltimore’s still one of the most talented teams in the league. Even without Jackson, the offense will still feature Henry, wide receiver Zay Flowers and tight end Mark Andrews. It also has a capable backup quarterback in Cooper Rush, who was 9-5 as a starter across seven seasons with the Dallas Cowboys.

Rush, 31, completed 60.7% of his passes while posting career highs in yards (1,844) and touchdown passes (12) during extensive action last season filling in for the injured Dak Prescott. Rush signed a two-year, $6.2 million contract with Baltimore in the offseason.

“I’ve been here before. Whenever a franchise QB goes down, it’s always ‘the sky is falling’ feeling,” Rush said.

There isn’t much panic in the Ravens’ locker room right now. Players and coaches seem to recognize that they still boast one of the league’s most potent offenses — and a defense expected to get healthier in the coming weeks.

“Success is coming,” coach John Harbaugh said.

But if the slide continues this week, it might become too late to save a season that started with such high hopes.

Have a news tip? Contact Sam Jane at sjane@baltsun.com, 410-332-6200 and x.com/Sam_Jane230.

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