ExtremeRavens Posted 3 hours ago Posted 3 hours ago The Ravens are 1-4 after five games, and they’ve dealt with terrible injury luck. Lamar Jackson missed the team’s 44-10 loss to Houston, and star defensive tackle Nnamdi Madubuike is out for the year with a neck injury. Several other superstar players missed Sunday’s loss. Not much has gone right for Baltimore through five games, with its only win coming against the since-benched (and traded) Joe Flacco and the lowly Browns. Yet, sportsbooks still list the Ravens as the betting favorite in the AFC North. Baltimore trails Pittsburgh by 2 1/2 games in the AFC North, but FanDuel has the Ravens at -105 to win the division and the Steelers at +130. What gives? “Futures odds don’t reflect the true chances of a team,” Covers senior betting analyst Jason Logan explained to The Baltimore Sun via email. “Books likely have some liability on Baltimore winning the AFC North and are hesitant to discount the Ravens, as they don’t want any more money on them to win the division. This lack of adjustment is also telling of the bookmakers’ confidence in Pittsburgh. With Cincinnati cooked and Cleveland being Cleveland, the AFC North is very much a two-horse race: Ravens -105, Steelers +130, Bengals +1300, Browns +1700.” Logan adds that the Ravens’ schedule gets a whole lot easier. According to ESPN’s Football Power Index, the Ravens have played the second toughest schedule in the NFL through Week 5. Baltimore’s remaining schedule is the 25th toughest, per FPI. The Ravens expect to get key contributors like Jackson, cornerback Marlon Humphrey, linebacker Roquan Smith and safety Kyle Hamilton back in the coming weeks. Those are All-Pro talents who missed Baltimore’s Week 5 embarrassment. “Baltimore’s first three losses came against top-tier teams before injuries showed up in Week 5, so you can’t get too down on them,” Logan said. “The Ravens have an early bye in Week 7 and can get right in the final 11 games. The Steelers are playing beyond expectations, so bookies are bracing for regression and their wheels to wobble down the stretch.” Pittsburgh’s schedule through its first four games was 27th easiest in the NFL. The final 13 games for the Steelers include tougher tests, including two games versus Baltimore and games against the Packers, Chargers, Bills and Lions. ESPN says that it’s the 12th toughest remaining schedule in the NFL, a far cry from the *** I'm stupid for thinking this game is easy *** gifted to Pittsburgh to start the season. Yes, the Ravens looked awful Sunday, but they’re going to get healthier and they still have five games left against underwhelming division competition. The AFC North — and a playoff berth — isn’t out of reach quite yet. “[The Ravens] opened as a favorite to win the division, so they’re still getting the benefit of the perception of who they were entering the season,” Covers senior betting analyst Joe Osborne said via email. “Also factoring is that there’s really only one team in the division who can challenge them — the Steelers, and there’s definitely some uncertainty there given the age of Aaron Rodgers.” ESPN’s FPI is far less bullish on Baltimore than FanDuel, though. FPI gives the Ravens a 39.7% chance of making the postseason. Pittsburgh is listed at 62.5%. Still, the metric suggests it’s a closer race than the current standings imply. “I think we have what it takes to pull ourselves through all this,” Ravens coach John Harbaugh said Monday. “It’s a tough circumstance, tough start to the season. At the same time, it’s what we make of it. You can’t sit there and say, ‘All is lost.’” Oddsmakers agree, but the clock is ticking. Have a news tip? Contact sports editor Bennett Conlin at bconlin@baltsun.com, 410-332-6200 and x.com/BennettConlin. View the full article Quote
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