ExtremeRavens Posted Thursday at 09:00 AM Posted Thursday at 09:00 AM Before Sunday, the New York Times’ simulation calculator gave the Ravens a 34% chance to make the playoffs — better odds than many clear-minded NFL fans might have guessed considering history’s warning of a 1-5 start. A win versus Chicago, plus losses to the other three AFC North teams in Week 8, bumped their odds to what is now 59%. If the Ravens get out of Miami on Thursday night with a win, which would improve them to 3-5, 4,000 simulations have Baltimore reaching the postseason two out of three times. One could argue it’s a big game. Every game is for a team scaling out of the NFL’s abyss. Who will have the advantage Thursday night in South Florida? Ravens passing game vs. Dolphins pass defense This week, Lamar Jackson addressed reporters for the first time in a month. He spoke for nine minutes, answering more than two dozen questions. Rehashing the hamstring injury was a thread he quickly soured on. The two-time NFL Most Valuable Player’s eyes are pointed forward on the need to kick-start a win streak. “I’m ready to go,” he said, eager to “touch the grass with my guys. It’s been a while.” Through 3 1/2 games, Jackson threw 10 touchdowns with one interception. Despite a few stalled-out drives and goal-line shortcomings, the Ravens, under Jackson, owned the league’s top-scoring offense. He doesn’t foresee the need to shed any rust. Jackson said he’s ready to pick up right where he left off. The Dolphins, meanwhile, rank in the bottom 10 in yards per game (344.4) and points per game (26.9) with a secondary eviscerated by injuries. All five safeties on Miami’s roster are dealing with injuries to varying degrees. And since the preseason, five Dolphins cornerbacks have sustained season-ending injuries. “Worry isn’t going to do me any good,” Miami defensive coordinator and former Ravens assistant Anthony Weaver told local reporters. “We’ve got to find a way to get it done.” A rejuvenated offense with its back against the wall isn’t a good matchup for a banged-up defense on a short week. EDGE: Ravens Dolphins passing game vs. Ravens pass defense Days before the Dolphins beat the Falcons, Miami coach Mike McDaniel had to clarify that Tua Tagovailoa, who signed a hefty four-year, $212.4 million contract extension in July 2024, was still their starting quarterback. Tagovailoa was benched the week before against Cleveland, the latest checkpoint in a confounding season. His 10 interceptions are tied for the worst mark in football. He’s also top-eight in touchdown passes (8). Tagovailoa has the fifth-best completion percentage among quarterbacks with at least 250 plays. But his expected points added per play is a fat zero, slightly worse than Chicago’s Caleb Williams. Baltimore’s pass defense seems to have found a groove. Nate Wiggins is playing some of his best football. And newly acquired safety Alohi Gilman allows for the three-safety look that the Ravens thrive in, pushing Hamilton into the box. The Ravens are still one of five teams allowing more than 250 passing yards per game, but the past two games showed signs of progress. Thursday night will come down to whether they can quiet Jaylen Waddle. Perhaps more importantly, can the defense with only two interceptions this year snag one from the quarterback averaging more than one a game? EDGE: Ravens Ravens running game vs. Dolphins run defense “I know y’all seen that block [Patrick Ricard] had on 53,” Jackson said, when asked about returning their All-Pro fullback. “It’s self-explanatory.” After missing the first six games rehabbing a calf injury, Ricard made his presence felt in his season debut. He pancaked a Chicago linebacker and drew enough attention in the running game that it opened up new avenues for Baltimore’s air raid. Five players ran the ball. Three of them went over 40 yards. Collectively, they averaged 5.1 yards per carry, their highest single-game mark since Week 4. Before beating the Falcons on Sunday, the Dolphins owned the worst rushing defense in football, allowing 159.3 yards per game. Seven of their first eight opponents rushed for at least 100 yards. They slowed down Atlanta’s Bijan Robinson because their game plan centered around one of the league’s top backs. With Henry, Jackson and Keaton Mitchell’s handful of breakout runs, there’s far more to account for with Baltimore. EDGE: Ravens Dolphins running game vs. Ravens run defense Miami is pivoting off a previous tendency. It used to lean heavily on one primary back, like Raheem Mostert or De’Von Achane. Against the Falcons, three uniquely qualified backs got nine or more carries. McDaniel said he thought mixing it up was “a little underrated.” The Ravens have been one of the worst run-stoppers in the NFL since multiple injuries decimated their defensive front. Even though the Rams and Bears failed to get their ground game going, it could be Miami’s best shot at moving the ball and owning time of possession, which has been a deciding factor in each of the Ravens’ losses. EDGE: Dolphins Ravens inside linebacker Roquan Smith, shown practicing in June, had 12 tackles in a Week 8 win over the Bears. (Karl Merton Ferron/Staff) Ravens special teams vs. Dolphins special teams Ravens punter Jordan Stout deserves a moment of appreciation. The 2022 fourth-round pick is quietly having the best season of his career. His 49.9 yards per punt rank sixth in the NFL, a tick better than Miami’s Jake Bailey. And his 45.9 net yards per attempt are third, a half-yard behind right behind Bailey. Nate Wiggins’ game-defining interception versus Chicago was set up by Stout pinning the Bears at their own 4-yard line. He’s dropped a punt inside an opponent’s 20-yard line in all but two games. He’s done it twice in three contests, and so had Bailey. Thursday night surely won’t come down to the punters, but a well-placed boot could set up a game-defining moment. And both of these punters are capable of being that catalyst. EDGE: Dolphins Ravens intangibles vs. Dolphins intangibles Remember 2022? The Ravens clung to a three-touchdown lead, which most metrics say practically guarantees a win. But a miraculous Miami comeback and a head-scratching Baltimore collapse accounted for the organization’s largest blown lead since 1997. While that game wasn’t a talking point with players or coaches this week, it lingers in the background like a gnarly stench everyone is trying to ignore. The Ravens have already used up most of the losses they’re allowed with a chance to still reach the postseason. Capitalizing on beating an overmatched Dolphins team is a requirement to meet their long-term goals. “This is the National Football League. If you don’t come ready to play, and clearly we were not today, these things can happen,” Falcons coach Raheem Morris told reporters after being upset by the Dolphins this week. “Sundays you can be humbled, and today was one of those days.” The Ravens, who are prone to one or two quirky, humbling Sundays each season, can’t afford a repeat Thursday night. EDGE: Ravens Prediction Last week, most pundits pegged the Ravens to beat the Bears right up until Jackson was ruled out. Then they flopped, because he means that much. Baltimore pulled off a season-saving win in convincing fashion, nonetheless. The Dolphins are a worse football team than the Bears, Jackson will officially be back under center, this game matters just as much as last week to Baltimore’s long-term goals, and it’s being played in South Florida, a home game for Jackson and Zay Flowers. The Ravens should have no problem beating the short-week allegations and taking care of business. Ravens 31, Dolphins 14 Have a news tip? Contact Sam Cohn at scohn@baltsun.com, 410-332-6200 and x.com/samdcohn.x.com. View the full article Quote
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