ExtremeRavens Posted 5 hours ago Posted 5 hours ago Take a seat. Pull the lever that reclines your chair. Bury your hand into a bowl of popcorn — err, plate of turkey and mashed potatoes — because the Ravens surged to a first-place tie in the AFC North before Thanksgiving. They’re 6-5, stepping into three straight divisional games. First up is a rejuvenated Bengals (3-8) in prime time. Who will have the advantage Thursday night at M&T Bank Stadium? Ravens passing game vs. Bengals pass defense Lamar Jackson is an enigma. He’s a two-time Most Valuable Player with a propensity to do the unthinkable on a football field. As such, we grade him on a ridiculous curve. Anything shy of presumed greatness feels dubious. That’s the world we live in, exacerbated by a third injury in as many weeks — listed with a hurt toe after missing previous practices for an ankle and knee. Jackson’s rushing figures are down, he’s looked uncomfortable at times in the pocket and taken more sacks than all of last year. There are warranted concerns about Jackson’s health and whether he’ll be ready to carry the Ravens down the stretch. He hasn’t needed to for a decent chunk of this win streak. The Bengals defense might buy him another week of imperfection. They own the worst defense-adjusted value over average — an advanced football metric measuring team efficiency — in NFL history. That’s according to Aaron Schatz from FTN. Two of the bottom-five teams on that list started 1-10. EDGE: Ravens Bengals passing game vs. Ravens pass defense It’s been almost three months since we’ve seen one of the most dynamic quarterback-receiver duos in the NFL. Joe Burrow will make his much-anticipated return Thursday night, in time for the NFL to lift Ja’Marr Chase’s one-game suspension for spitting on a Steeler. Burrow made it back in time for a chance at spoiling Baltimore’s playoff push — surely something he’d relish. The last time those two played in Baltimore, Chase was responsible for 264 yards and three touchdowns of Burrow’s 428 and four-score evening. This year’s Ravens defense is head and shoulders above that group, currently riding a six game streak tempering offenses to 20 points or fewer. Burrow and Chase will be their toughest task yet. EDGE: Bengals Ravens running game vs. Bengals run defense When Derrick Henry has even a sliver of space, he can make defenses pay. More often than not with that lethal jab we’ve categorized as a stiff arm. The issue is the Ravens haven’t generated much push up front. According to NextGenStats, Henry has been contacted behind the line of scrimmage on 50.8% of his carries this season, the fifth highest rate in the NFL on a minimum of 75 carries. Hall of Fame talent can mask what would otherwise be a death knell for an average running back. He’s been stuffed for no gain or a loss on only 18.7% of his carries (a tick above league average), sixth best in the NFL at yards after contact (665). Meanwhile, the Bengals rank dead last in contacting opposing running backs behind the line of scrimmage (34.6%). Their run-stuff rate is the second lowest (11.8%). And when they do get hands on a running back behind the line of scrimmage, they aren’t bringing him down efficiently, allowing the NFL’s second most yards after contact to running backs. Expect a heavy workload for Henry. EDGE: Ravens Bengals running game vs. Ravens run defense Chase Brown is on the precipice of Bengals history. A productive outing Thursday night could make him the first player in organization history to record at least 100 yards from scrimmage in six consecutive games. Thirty NFL teams have had a player record such feat. Cincinnati and Cleveland are in the minority here. Where Brown has struggled in the run game, he’s made up for as a pass catcher, logging at least 25 receiving yards in three of the five along this streak with a single-game high of 75 versus Chicago. Another dual-threat running back burnt Baltimore recently. New York’s Breece Hall, practically the only viable option on one of the NFL’s least efficient offenses, torched the Ravens for 75 through the air and 44 on the ground. Four other lead backs have logged at least 30 yards through the air against the Ravens this season. Burrow to Chase is the offense’s headliner. Burrow to Brown could be an influential undercard. EDGE: Bengals Ravens special teams vs. Bengals special teams Ravens punter Jordan Stout said Sunday night he wanted to prove that Baltimore owned the best special teams unit in the NFL. They just outplayed the Jets’ third unit, so they’re certainly in the conversation. The Ravens have a no-issues kicker, a punter riding a career year and have enjoyed pleasant contributions from a few youngsters wrapping up returners. Cincinnati hasn’t been particularly sharp in that department. EDGE: Ravens Ravens intangibles vs. Bengals intangibles This is a crucial week for the AFC North standings. By beating the Jets, the Ravens climbed into a tie with the Steelers for first place. Three wins separate the division’s top-two and bottom-two teams. In the same way eyeballs watched closely as the Steelers crumbled against Chicago late, there will be plenty of eyes on Pittsburgh’s Sunday afternoon game versus Buffalo. The Bengals don’t have much to fight for at this point, beyond spoiling the Ravens’ season. Conspiracy theorists are hypothesizing whether Burrow’s fast recovery was sped up by a motivation to crash the party. They don’t have much else to lose. Baltimore, meanwhile, is fighting to keep its season above water. When these two teams played on a Thursday night last year, Baltimore won but Orr didn’t sleep much after Burrow mowed down his defense. Only one of these teams is at any risk of losing sleep over the result. EDGE: Bengals Prediction Six weeks ago this game had no juice. Few thought Burrow would be back this early and Jackson’s hamstring injury raised questions about whether the clash of two superstar quarterbacks might settle for a battle of the backups. Welp, here we are. Both are healthy (enough). It should be close. It should be exciting. I’m going with Cincinnati by a hair. Baltimore’s offense could flip a switch at any point and be the unstoppable force it was last year but until that happens I’m not convinced they can win anything resembling a shootout. If the Browns and Jets had respectable teams, the Ravens win streak might’ve ended weeks ago. Burrow is the best quarterback the Ravens will have faced since — checks notes — their last loss. Bengals 24, Ravens 23 Have a news tip? Contact Sam Cohn at scohn@baltsun.com, 410-332-6200 and x.com/samdcohn.x.com. View the full article Quote
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