ExtremeRavens Posted 13 hours ago Posted 13 hours ago Happy Steelers week to all who celebrate. This one’s a doozy. The Ravens and Steelers are both 6-6, tied atop the AFC North. Winner earns a one-game leg up. Playoff implications abound. In fact, Sunday’s game holds more playoff leverage than any other NFL game so far this season. According to ESPN’s Aaron Schatz, a Ravens win would catapult them to 70% odds of making the postseason. A loss plummets their chances to 21%. The Steelers are a tick better: a win gives Pittsburgh a 75% chance to take the division, a loss drops it to 23%. Who will have the advantage Sunday? Ravens passing game vs. Steelers pass defense Is Lamar Jackson fully healthy? Has the two-time NFL Most Valuable Player, coming off the most productive season of his career, regressed? Will that spoil any shot at postseason redemption for the Ravens? All fair questions, none of which we have much clarity on. Jackson and coach John Harbaugh say that he’s healthy, despite him missing one practice each of the past three weeks during a stretch without a passing touchdown. Jackson’s production is down, turnovers are way up and some of his throws are head scratchers, chalked up to an “off day” by his coach and teammates. Over the past four weeks, Jackson’s expected points added per play — a statistic measuring one’s impact on a given play — ranks 28th out of 32 quarterbacks and his clean pocket success rate is 27th. Both figures, according to ESPN data scientist Sam Hoppen, paint a bleak picture. Another telling figure, from Next Gen Stats: Jackson has 20 designed runs this season and has not forced a single missed tackle. That, after leading all quarterbacks with 104 over the first seven years of his career. Once a bastion of consistent superhuman feats, Jackson looks beatable. “Just be me,” he said. “Be Lamar,” and everything else will fall into place. Pittsburgh’s secondary isn’t a steel curtain, but the defense has forced 12 fumbles, more than any other team in the NFL. That’s a bad sign for the Ravens, who coughed it up four times last week, bringing their total to 10, second worst in the league. EDGE: Steelers Steelers passing game vs. Ravens pass defense By kickoff Sunday, it will have been 42 days since the last time the Steelers completed a downfield pass. The 42-year-old Aaron Rodgers and his backup, Mason Rudolph, have combined to throw 13 passes at least 20 yards downfield. Three of them were picked off. The other 10 fell incomplete. Rodgers hasn’t been much sharper on intermediate throws (10-19 air yards), completing one-third of his attempts over his past four starts, according to Next Gen Stats. The final score of the Ravens’ loss to the Bengals didn’t do Baltimore’s defense any favors. Yes, they let up 32 points. But in the first half, Cincinnati took five trips within 25 yards of the end zone (two of them a result of Ravens fumbles) and never punched it in. Where Rodgers can hurt Baltimore is by getting rid of the ball quick on short and intermediate throws to drive down the field. EDGE: Ravens Ravens running game vs. Steelers run defense When the Steelers drafted Derrick Harmon earlier this year, they did so with their AFC wild-card loss in mind. Derrick Henry took 26 carries for 186 yards and two touchdowns that day. Pittsburgh used their first-round pick on Harmon because, as coach Mike Tomlin put it this week, “If you run out of bigs in AFC North ball, you’re running on the beach.” Needling the point even further, the defensive tackle out of Oregon went on a podcast and said that he was most excited to meet Henry in the trenches. But a recent knee injury to the Pittsburgh run stuffer will delay their first encounter. So the Steelers won’t have Harmon to stop Henry, but they should have Patrick Queen, who missed one practice this week for a glute injury. Queen, the former Raven turned Pittsburgh defensive signal caller, has not missed a game in his six-year career. Tomlin emphasized this week that stopping the run is the team’s number one priority. Last week, in a loss to the Bills, Pittsburgh’s defense allowed 249 rushing yards, the most by a visiting team since 1975. Whether the Ravens can get Henry going could decide Sunday’s outcome. EDGE: Ravens Steelers running game vs. Ravens run defense Pittsburgh running backs have the pleasure of four 300-pound players paving a lane: guard Spencer Anderson (6 feet 5, 305 pounds), tackle Broderick Jones (6-5, 311), tackle Troy Fautanu (6-4, 317) and tight end Darnell Washington (6-7, 311). Offensive coordinator Arthur Smith once likened their ground game to Alexander the Great riding into battle on elephants, which is all well and great but the Steelers are among the least productive rushing teams in the NFL this season. They rank poorly in average rushing yards and explosive run rate. The Steelers’ eight rushing scores rank better than only seven teams. And they’ve rushed for a touchdown in less than half their games. Baltimore’s defense has only allowed one rushing touchdown in five weeks. EDGE: Ravens Ravens special teams vs. Steelers special teams By defense-adjusted value over average, the Baltimore’s special teams unit is better than Pittsburgh’s. The Steelers, according to FTN, own a middle-of-the-pack group in the NFL. The Ravens are top-10 in special teams DVOA. Their kicker, Tyler Loop, kept the Ravens within striking distance when the offense started slow, and their punter, Jordan Stout, has flipped the field enough times to warrant All-Pro attention. Outside of a muff by LaJohntay Wester, Baltimore’s special teams unit has been its most consistent phase of football this season. EDGE: Ravens Ravens intangibles vs. Steelers intangibles Harbaugh and Tomlin meet Sunday for the 39th time. That’s the second most meetings between a pair of coaches in NFL history. Both the Ravens and Steelers, consistent playoff contenders who have failed to get over the hump in a decade, are toiling through disappointing campaigns. One will back their way into the playoffs, while the other’s job comes under fire. The Baltimore Sun columnist Josh Tolentino writes, “Both coaches and franchises have built their identities around punishing trademark defenses. But those foundations have been shaken this season.” Perhaps this coaching showdown is the last between these two. As it stands, Harbaugh’s job is safer than Tomlin’s. Just ask the two guys who piloted Pittsburgh’s last Super Bowl — Ben Roethlisberger and James Harrison. EDGE: Ravens Prediction This doesn’t feel like the type of AFC North matchup in which both sides are fighting to win a spot in the playoffs. It reeks of two teams trying to avoid the humiliation of missing the postseason via abject disaster. Neither quarterback is at full health for this must-win game, which means it could be decided by defense. Expect a few turnovers; the Ravens have forced at least one in each of their past seven games, and the Steelers lead the NFL in forced fumbles. Another close ending seems all but certain in a rivalry in which 28 of 38 matchups have been decided by one score. Although the Ravens seem better equipped on paper, this one might end in a fourth straight Jackson clunker feeding a narrow loss because the Steelers do barely enough. Steelers 17, Ravens 14. Have a news tip? Contact Sam Cohn at scohn@baltsun.com, 410-332-6200 and x.com/samdcohn.x.com. View the full article Quote
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