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Ravens Insider: Is every game a must-win for the Ravens to make the playoffs? Not so fast.


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Ravens coach John Harbaugh admitted earlier this week that he planned to watch the Steelers-Dolphins game Monday night with “great interest.”

Baltimore was coming off a dominant showing in Cincinnati, having kept pace with Pittsburgh in the hunt for a third straight AFC North crown. A day later, Harbaugh watched the Steelers cruise past Miami, meaning Pittsburgh reclaimed a one-game advantage in the division standings.

Playing meaningful football in December, keeping an eye on the box scores around the division, Harbaugh said, “it’s part of the fun of this whole thing.”

With three regular-season games remaining, the Ravens (7-7) know they can still control their own destiny. Winning all three — hosting the Patriots on Sunday night, a road trip to meet the Packers then a regular-season finale in Pittsburgh — would give Baltimore the AFC North crown. Anything else “would be a stretch,” Harbaugh said.

“The bottom line is that we have to take care of our business,” he continued. “So, we are not sitting there on pins and needles; you just assume that you have to take care of your business.”

Should they take care of business, the Ravens would finish the season 10-7, salvaging what once appeared to be a lost year. If the Steelers (8-6) have the same record, tiebreakers come into play.

There are 12 rungs to help decide, the last of which is a coin flip for the division — a hilarious way for this saga to end. It won’t get that far.

The tiebreakers unfurl like so: head-to-head, winning percentage versus division teams, common opponents, games played within the conference, strength of victory, strength of schedule, combined ranking among conference foes in points scored plus allowed, same thing but for all teams, net points in common games, net points in all games, net touchdowns in all games, then a coin flip.

So, if the Ravens win out, they’d best Pittsburgh in division opponents (depending on Steelers vs. Browns in Week 17) or common opponents.

“There’s no more second chances,” All-Pro linebacker Roquan Smith said Sunday night.

It’s a nice sentiment and the right mindset, but not entirely true.

Baltimore can afford one more loss. It just can’t be to Pittsburgh. Any scenario in which the Ravens go 2-1 over these final three (including beating the Steelers), they would need some help by way of Detroit beating Pittsburgh. That game, scheduled for 4:25 p.m. on Sunday, should wrap up before kickoff for “Sunday Night Football.”

Here’s a weird scenario worth monitoring: If Pittsburgh loses to Detroit and Baltimore beats New England, Week 17 becomes a meaningless affair. Week 18 becomes a game for the AFC North title. Perhaps a few starters would sit out a frigid Saturday night in Green Bay.

The New York Times’ playoff simulator projects the Ravens as having 34% odds of reaching the playoffs. One more win puts them over 40%, but the needle doesn’t shift drastically until Week 18. The Steelers, meanwhile, sit at 66%. That jumps to 81% should Pittsburgh upset Detroit.

“We have to win out,” wide receiver Zay Flowers said, “so that’s what we’re planning on doing.”

Grab your popcorn.

Have a news tip? Contact Sam Cohn at scohn@baltsun.com, 410-332-6200 and x.com/samdcohn.x.com. 

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