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Ravens Insider: Ravens vs. Packers scouting report for Week 17: Who has the edge?


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For the third time in a month, the Ravens lost a game many expected they’d show up for. It would have been a storybook playoff pursuit. Instead, they’re on the brink of mathematical elimination, set to face the Packers in Green Bay on Saturday night.

Who will have the advantage?

Ravens passing game vs. Packers pass defense

If Lamar Jackson (back) is capable of playing, he will play, irrespective of how much he practices this week, according to coach John Harbaugh. After a slew of injuries hampered his performances throughout much of this year, Jackson finally started to look like himself again. Then he took a knee to the back against the Patriots that sidelined him for the rest of the game. He was grimacing in the postgame locker room and appeared dejected answering questions.

If Jackson can’t go (he’s listed as doubtful), it’ll be Tyler “Snoop” Huntley filling in. He’s been a serviceable backup for the Ravens this year, completing 76.6% of his passes with one touchdown. More importantly, the offense doesn’t lose any significant juice in the handoff from QB1 to QB2. And the last time the Ravens beat the a team with a winning record? Huntley’s last start against Chicago.

“There’s a lot of incredible things about Snoop,” tight end Mark Andrews said. “I think that he runs this offense incredibly well. He’s a very versatile player. He gets the ball out, and he sees things really well. I think that one of my best years was with Snoop; so, I’ve got a lot of chemistry with him. Just seeing him grow throughout the years has been truly special.”

While the Packers rank near the bottom of the league in interception rate, they are near the top of the league in fewest yards per game (197.8) and yards per play (5.96). Even without all-world pass rusher Micah Parsons, Green Bay should be able to disrupt Baltimore’s timing.

EDGE: Packers

Packers passing game vs. Ravens pass defense

The Packers’ quarterback room was nearly snowed over. Jordan Love entered concussion protocol after taking a helmet-to-helmet hit in Chicago last weekend against the Bears. And backup Malik Willis dealt with a right shoulder injury and illness this week. Love’s availability in practice this week is a positive sign for his availability. He’s had an impressive season: on pace for a career-high 66.3% completion rate and, after throwing 11 interceptions each of the past two seasons, he’s only thrown six in 15 games. Love’s 0.2 expected points added per dropback are also tied with the two MVP frontrunners: Matthew Stafford and Drake Maye.

Some are calling Love a Pro Bowl snub. He’s probably on the fringe, with arguments to be made either way. But he’s playing at a level that has previously caused fits for the Ravens’ defense (sans Joe Burrow in Cincinnati two weeks ago). If Love can’t go, Willis isn’t a steep drop-off. The understudy completed 9 of 11 passes for 121 yards and a touchdown in 2 1/2 quarters against Chicago.

EDGE: Packers

Ravens running game vs. Packers run defense

Derrick Henry rushed for 128 yards and two touchdowns on an efficient 18 carries with one fumble against the Patriots. But, curiously, he wasn’t on the field for either of Baltimore’s final two drives in which they needed a knockout punch then a game-winning drive. Harbaugh acknowledged, in retrospect, that he would have liked to see the future Hall of Fame running back on the field in crunch time, but that the Ravens stuck with a rotation they’ve used in recent weeks.

The Packers ranks near the bottom of the league in rushing yards allowed over their past three games (125.7). Over their past eight, only two teams have failed to hit the collective 100-yard benchmark. Baltimore could feast in the cold Wisconsin weather. Particularly, if the Ravens deviate from such rigid rotations in crucial situations.

EDGE: Ravens

Packers running game vs. Ravens run defense

Packers lead back Josh Jacobs is tied for the second-most rushing touchdowns in the NFL (13). Don’t expect to see too much of him Saturday night, even if he’s available to play. Jacobs was limited in practice all week with knee and ankle injuries. He played through it in Chicago, but he took only 12 carries for 36 yards. Emmanuel Wilson, who’s coming off a 14-carry, 82-yard outing, likely handles the bulk of the workload against what has been the NFL’s best run defense over the past three weeks.

EDGE: Ravens

Ravens special teams vs. Packers special teams

Both the Ravens and Packers dealt with special teams blunders in their last outing.

Baltimore kicker Tyler Loop’s 56-yard field goal attempt fell short of the uprights. That would have been his season long. Loop and Harbaugh rewatched the film Monday morning and noticed “his timing on his start was off,” the coach said. “It just messed up his footwork a little bit, and he ended up pushing it, got under it a little bit and pushed it right, got a lot of rotation on it, and that’s why it came up short.” Harbaugh added that he’s certain that Loop is capable of making those kicks — which he proved in the preseason — but that his approach on that try “wasn’t good.”

Green Bay’s hands team wasn’t good either. With two minutes left the fourth quarter, down by a touchdown, the Bears tried an onside kick and recovered it, then cashed in on prime field position for a game-tying touchdown that would send the contest to overtime.

One was far more costly than the other. But by and large, Baltimore has owned the better special teams unit this season. One of the better groups in football, in fact.

EDGE: Ravens

Ravens intangibles vs. Packers intangibles

Green Bay clinched a playoff berth with the Detroit Lions’ loss to the Minnesota Vikings on Christmas, but it is still alive in the race for the NFC North and the No. 2 seed. The Ravens own putrid 6% odds to reach the postseason, according to The New York Times’ Playoff Simulator. Baltimore needs two wins in as many weeks with some help from the Browns, who host Pittsburgh on Sunday.

EDGE: Ravens

Prediction

As a belated Christmas present, the Ravens will be bounced from playoff contention. My guess: Baltimore rallies from a twist-the-knife home loss to beat the Packers because the Ravens have proved capable of winning games a week or two after losing the ones they really needed; then Pittsburgh beats up on the Browns a day later to win the AFC North. Granted, the Ravens haven’t beaten a team with a winning record since Week 8, when they toppled the Bears. They also haven’t lost on the road since September. Do I feel confident in this pick? No. But a Ravens win, prolonging their playoff chances by about 15 hours, wouldn’t be the most surprising thing to happen this season. Ravens 21, Packers 17.

Have a news tip? Contact Sam Cohn at scohn@baltsun.com, 410-332-6200 and x.com/samdcohn.x.com.

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