ExtremeRavens Posted 6 hours ago Posted 6 hours ago It all comes down to this. After a season filled with twists and turns, the Ravens face the Steelers on Sunday night in Pittsburgh with a chance to win a third straight AFC North title and secure a spot in the playoffs for the seventh time in the past eight seasons. All eyes will be on Lamar Jackson’s availability heading into the pivotal matchup, but signs point toward the two-time NFL Most Valuable Player returning from a back injury after he practiced Wednesday. Jackson has missed four games because of injuries in what has been an up-and-down season that has been under the microscope of late because of his availability and unsettled contract status entering next year. But those are discussions for another day. Right now, the Ravens are entering the tail end of a campaign that began with Super Bowl aspirations, and those championship dreams are still right in front of them. Everyone knows that Sunday night’s game is win-and-in for the playoffs, but who will the winner face in the wild-card round? And what teams are lurking down the road? Here’s an updated look at the playoff picture: Wild-card matchups Jan. 10, 11 and 12 at higher seeds The winner of Ravens vs. Steelers will secure the No. 4 seed in the AFC by virtue of having the worst record among the four division champions. But division winners are guaranteed a home playoff game, which means the Ravens or Steelers will host a team with a better regular-season record. According to the NFL’s Next Gen Stats playoff probability model, here are the teams most likely to earn the No. 5 seed and make a trip to Baltimore or Pittsburgh in the wild-card round: Texans (11-5) — 68% Bills (11-5) — 21% Jaguars (12-4) — 6% Chargers (11-5) — 5% The Texans and Jaguars are still battling for the AFC South title, which will be decided in Week 18. Jacksonville can clinch the AFC South and the AFC’s No. 1 seed, lone first-round bye and home-field advantage with a win Sunday over the Tennessee Titans (3-13), a Broncos loss to the Chargers and a New England Patriots (13-3) loss to the Miami Dolphins (7-9). Jacksonville can also clinch the AFC South title with a win or tie, or a Texans loss or tie against the Indianapolis Colts (8-8), who will be starting rookie quarterback Riley Leonard instead of 44-year-old Philip Rivers. The Texans need a win over the Colts and a Jaguars loss to claim the division title. The Patriots and Denver Broncos (13-3) have already secured the AFC East and AFC West titles, respectively, so the Bills and Chargers are unable to climb higher than the fifth seed and thus don’t have much to play for this weekend. Denver clinches the AFC’s No. 1 seed with a win over the Chargers, or a tie and a Patriots loss to the Dolphins, or a Patriots loss and a Jaguars loss or tie. New England clinches the No. 1 seed with a win over Miami and a Broncos loss or tie, or a tie against the Dolphins and a Broncos loss. The Next Gen Stats model gives Denver an 82% chance to claim the top seed with the Patriots more likely to finish No. 2 (69%). But in the event of a Broncos loss to the Chargers, Denver is more likely to finish in third place (12%) than in second (6%). The Jags can rise as high as No. 1 in the conference or fall as far as No. 7, depending on how the weekend plays out. But their most likely outcome is to clinch the AFC South (86%). Buffalo is more likely to get the No. 6 (40%) or No. 7 (39%) seed, according to the Next Gen Stats model. Quarterback Josh Allen is dealing with a foot injury and might not play against the New York Jets (3-13) in the regular-season finale with the Bills’ playoff spot already secured. The Chargers and coach Jim Harbaugh are most likely to land the No. 7 seed (57%), followed by the No. 6 spot (38%). Quarterback Justin Herbert, who’s been dealing with a fractured left hand, will sit out Sunday’s game. The Ravens already faced the Texans earlier this season, suffering a 44-10 loss in Week 5 in one of the worst home defeats in franchise history. Cooper Rush started for an injured Jackson and threw three interceptions, while C.J. Stroud threw four touchdown passes and Houston piled up 417 total yards. Since its 0-3 start, Houston has been one of the hottest teams in the NFL, winning eight straight games behind one of the league’s best defenses. Zay Flowers and the Ravens could see the Patriots again in the divisional round — assuming they beat the Steelers on Sunday and win their home wild-card game. (Kenneth K. Lam/Staff) Divisional round matchups Jan. 17 and 18 at higher seeds If the Ravens get past the Steelers and win their wild-card matchup, they have an outside chance of hosting a divisional round game. For that to happen, the No. 6 and/or No. 7 seeds would need to pull upsets in the wild-card round. Entering Week 18, the projected wild-card matchups are the No. 7 Chargers at the No. 2 Patriots and the No. 6 Bills at the No. 3 AFC South winner (Jaguars or Texans). If the higher-seeded Ravens, Patriots and Jaguars/Texans all win, Baltimore would face the projected No. 1 seed Broncos in Denver while the Patriots and Jaguars/Texans face off in New England. Wins by the Ravens, Patriots and Bills would send Buffalo to Denver and pit the Ravens and Patriots in Foxborough, Massachusetts, in a rematch of a Week 16 “Sunday Night Football” showdown won by New England. A pair of upsets by the Chargers and Bills would send Los Angeles to Denver in an AFC West matchup, while the Ravens would host Buffalo in a rematch of last year’s divisional round and subsequent Week 1 thriller. Conference championship weekend Jan. 25 at higher seeds Normally, this spot is reserved for Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs, who have appeared in seven straight AFC title games. But the Chiefs are 6-10 and out of playoff contention while Mahomes is recovering from a torn ACL. That means a golden opportunity for a new contender to emerge. The New York Times’ playoff simulator — which estimates odds by randomly simulating the remainder of the season thousands of times while using a statistical forecast that incorporates a host of data — gives the Broncos the best odds to win the Super Bowl among AFC teams at 14%, followed by the Patriots (10%), Jaguars (7%), Texans (6%) and Bills (6%). The Ravens — who still need to win Sunday to get into the field — are at 3%. ESPN’s Football Power Index is similarly skeptical of the Ravens, putting their odds of winning the Super Bowl at 4.4% and their chance to make the AFC title game at 16.9%. The Broncos (46.6%) and Patriots (32.4%) are the clear favorites to make it to championship weekend in ESPN’s model, followed by the Jaguars (25.9%), Bills (24.4%), Texans (24.1%) and Chargers (22.1%). Super Bowl Sunday Feb. 8 at Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, California Well, what about the NFC? In a cruel twist for Ravens fans, former Baltimore defensive coordinator Mike Macdonald and the Seahawks are the favorites to emerge in the NFC with 17% odds of winning the Super Bowl, per the New York Times simulator. But much of that promise hinges on a Week 18 matchup Saturday night at San Francisco, as the winner clinches the No. 1 seed, a first-round bye, home-field advantage throughout and the NFC West title. A loss by Seattle would lock in the No. 5 seed and a road wild-card game against the NFC South champions, which will either be the Panthers (8-8) or Buccaneers (7-9). Strangely enough, the three NFC teams with the highest odds of winning the Super Bowl, according to the New York Times simulator, reside in the NFC West. The Rams (9%) have a prolific offense and the 49ers (8%) might be peaking at the perfect time with Brock Purdy back healthy. The Eagles (8%) and Bears (4%) have been equally impressive and frustrating at times this season, but both carry plenty of star power. The Packers (2%) have wilted down the stretch because of injuries and inconsistent play, but Jordan Love was putting together a Pro Bowl-caliber season before his Week 16 concussion. If the Bears or Packers emerge in the NFC and meet the Super Bowl-bound Ravens, it would be an interesting scenario considering Jackson sat out against both of those teams earlier this season. But the star quarterback has been dominant against the other conference, going 25-5 against the NFC in his career. Have a news tip? Contact C.J. Doon at cdoon@baltsun.com, 410-332-6200 and x.com/CJDoon. View the full article Quote
Recommended Posts
Join the conversation
You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.