ExtremeRavens Posted 16 hours ago Posted 16 hours ago The Ravens visit the Steelers on Sunday with the AFC North title on the line. For the winner, their season stays alive. The loser’s Super Bowl dreams evaporate. It’s a high-stakes game for the two bitter rivals. Here’s a closer look at what sports betting odds tell us about the matchup. What are the odds? Baltimore is on the road, but with Lamar Jackson expected to play, the Ravens are the favorite. Spread: Ravens by 3 1/2 points (FanDuel) Total: 41.5 points Moneyline: Ravens -184, Steelers +154 “The early movement in the market indicates that bettors believe Jackson is playing, with the spread jumping from Ravens -3 to -3.5,” Covers senior sports betting analyst Jason Logan told The Baltimore Sun via email. “That half point move is more significant than you would think, due to the spread cross the key number of a field goal. If and when Lamar is cleared, that could prompt more money on Baltimore and perhaps push this spread to Ravens -4, which would likely draw some buyback on the Steelers, who are always live underdogs.” Could either team make a playoff run? The winner of the game will make the postseason. But is either of the two squads actually capable of making a run to the Super Bowl? Each team holds Super Bowl odds of +2000 or longer entering this weekend’s games. Logan offered some insights into the Ravens’ Super Bowl odds, which on the surface suggest they’re a long shot compared with other playoff-bound teams. Baltimore is +2000 to win the Super Bowl, and the Steelers are +10000. “NFL futures, like odds to win the Super Bowl, aren’t an accurate reflection of a team’s chances to hoist the Lombardi Trophy,” Logan said. “Those odds vary from sportsbook to sportsbook and reflect the liability those books have on certain teams over the course of the season. “If one shop has taken a lot of money on the Ravens to win the Super Bowl at higher odds, meaning they would pay out a lot if Baltimore won, they likely don’t want to draw any more money on the Ravens. They’ll adjust their futures book accordingly, jacking up the ask on Baltimore and hoping to entice action elsewhere to help soften their liability.” While the odds might not be a perfect representation of Baltimore’s Super Bowl chances, other predictive metrics paint a similar picture. ESPN’s Football Power Index gives the Ravens just a 4.4% chance to win it all. Getting into the playoffs would help the cause, but Baltimore has shown plenty of shortcomings throughout the year. Jackson’s injuries have hampered his performance, and the defense ranks 30th in the NFL in passing yards allowed per game. Most numbers don’t suggest the Ravens are ready for a Super Bowl run. But games are decided on the field, not spreadsheets. “You don’t always get to pick your path,” Ravens coach John Harbaugh said Wednesday. “And many times, the path isn’t what you would have picked, what you would have chosen, but it might be exactly what you needed, and I hope that’s the case.” The pick Before the Ravens can think about the Super Bowl, they need to win Sunday. Most analysts are in agreement that Baltimore’s best path to an AFC North title comes on the ground. Perhaps the most intriguing bet of the game comes via a prop bet related to Derrick Henry. The over/under for Henry’s carries is 18.5 on FanDuel. DraftKings has the line at 19.5 and BetMGM makes it 20.5. In Week 17, Baltimore gave him the ball 36 times. In the first meeting between the Ravens and Steelers, Henry ran the ball 25 times. If the game remains close and the Ravens aren’t forced to abandon the running game, Henry should clear 20 carries. Best bet: Henry over 18.5 carries Have a news tip? Contact Bennett Conlin at bconlin@baltsun.com, 410-332-6200 and x.com/BennettConlin. View the full article Quote
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