Ravens Insider: Ravens vs. Steelers staff picks: Who will win Sunday night in Pittsburgh?

[ExtremeRavens]

Here’s how The Baltimore Sun sports staff views the outcome of Sunday night’s Week 18 game between the Ravens and Steelers at Acrisure Stadium in Pittsburgh that will decide the AFC North champion:

Brian Wacker, reporter

Steelers 20, Ravens 17: Receiver DK Metcalf not being available for the Steelers is significant, if not game-shifting. The Ravens’ defense is also not nearly as good as the Cleveland Browns’, so Aaron Rodgers, a masterful operator, should be able to have some success against cornerbacks Nate Wiggins and Marlon Humphrey as well as linebacker Trenton Simpson underneath and over the middle.

If the Ravens learned anything from last week’s win over the Green Bay Packers, it’s that moments like these are why they got Derrick Henry. The bruising back ran for 162 punishing yards against the Steelers in an easy and crucial win in Baltimore last December, though Pittsburgh didn’t have stout rookie defensive tackle Derrick Harmon then. The return of Lamar Jackson also bolsters the offense. But weird things happen in Pittsburgh, which has been a house of horrors for the Ravens’ quarterback and a few of his teammates in recent years.

The longer this game stays close and the more discordant it is, the more that favors the Steelers. The Ravens, meanwhile, have been a tease all year. Why would this be any different?

Sam Cohn, reporter

Ravens 20, Steelers 17: A few factors that could help determine how this game goes intertwine like a loaf of challah. The Ravens have been much sharper on the road (5-2) than they are at home (3-6). They’ve also played worse in prime time games, compared with the afternoon slate. Both quarterbacks are in line for legacy games: Jackson, a quintessential final test for this bumpy regular season; and Rodgers, 42 years old looking to turn back the clock in what could be his final shot at a playoff run. The upward trend of the Ravens of late compared with the downward arrow in Pittsburgh gives me more confidence in Baltimore — by a smidge. It feels like a toss up between two teams unworthy of playoff contention.

All that said, no DK Metcalf leaves a gaping hole in the Steelers’ offense. Metcalf torched the Ravens when these teams met a few weeks back. Expect Rodgers to play better than he did in Cleveland, but not by enough to overpower what is still a talented Ravens secondary.

Mike Preston, columnist

Ravens 24, Steelers 10: Unless the Ravens turn the ball over, they should win this game, and do it fairly easily. Pittsburgh is missing two of its top receivers and doesn’t have a long ball threat in the absence of DK Metcalf, who is serving the second of a two-game suspension. Pittsburgh’s run defense is good, but the Ravens should keep pounding the ball with Derrick Henry. Not only do they control the time of possession, but they also keep their No. 25 ranked defense off the field. Pittsburgh quarterback Aaron Rodgers has to have a great game, but that doesn’t seem promising without a big-time receiver on the outside.

Josh Tolentino, columnist

Ravens 24, Steelers 21: Lamar Jackson returning to practice as a full participant in all three sessions for the first time in two months might be the headliner ahead of this fascinating Week 18 showdown, but the Ravens need to run the ball again and again with Derrick Henry, who will be celebrating his 32nd birthday Sunday night. The Steelers regain key cog Derrick Harmon, a stud rookie defensive tackle who missed the first meeting involving these two teams, and might sell out to stop King Henry. But Todd Monken must lean on the team’s identity and physicality in this win-or-go home matchup. When Jackson is asked to create explosive plays, the two-time NFL MVP must prioritize ball security and not gift Pittsburgh any free possessions. The Ravens lost their first two road games at Buffalo and Kansas City, but have since rattled off five straight wins away from M&T Bank Stadium. With Baltimore riding the shoulders of Henry, plus Jackson’s pending return, Sunday night figures to be road win No. 6.

C.J. Doon, editor

Ravens 20, Steelers 16: Lamar Jackson is available, and DK Metcalf isn’t. Need we say more? Sure, there’s a world in which Jackson is rusty and struggles against a Pittsburgh defense that has slowed him down many times before, but he has the luxury of handing it off to Derrick Henry. The Steelers’ best playmaker right now is Kenneth Gainwell. Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Adam Thielen and Scotty Miller are too old, Calvin Austin III is banged up, and Roman Wilson is unproven. It would take a comedy of mistakes and missed opportunities for the Ravens to squander this opportunity that was handed to them on a silver platter thanks to the Browns’ surprising win over Pittsburgh last week. The real question to me isn’t whether the Ravens win this game, but how far they go after that. Some sportsbooks already make Baltimore a slight favorite at home against the Texans, the likely No. 5 seed, in the wild-card round. This game is a perfect test to see whether the Ravens can finally start to show that Super Bowl potential.

Bennett Conlin, editor

Ravens 23, Steelers 17: The Ravens’ biggest weakness is probably their secondary, but without DK Metcalf, can Pittsburgh really stress Baltimore’s corners? The Steelers’ injury and suspension situation looks more dire than Baltimore’s. A healthier Lamar Jackson obviously helps the Ravens, but offensive coordinator Todd Monken shouldn’t need to put the game in Jackson’s hands, especially if he’s less than 100% healthy. The plan for Baltimore should be simple: Give the ball to Derrick Henry and play decent defense against a short-handed Steelers offense. This is a de facto playoff game, but the Steelers don’t look like a playoff team with Metcalf sidelined.

Tim Schwartz, reporter

Ravens 28, Steelers 21: Lamar Jackson is back. Derrick Henry is rolling. The defense has turned a corner. Is that enough for the Ravens? It should be against a Steelers squad that has been reeling and looked totally lost last Sunday in Cleveland without wide receiver DK Metcalf. Baltimore rediscovered its identity without Jackson by running Henry over and over. This coaching staff should know by now that that is the Ravens’ recipe for success. Count on Jackson to manage the game and pick up some key third downs and Baltimore will win. A loss very well could spell the end of the Harbaugh-Jackson relationship, so they better show up.

Patrice Sanders, FOX45 Morning News anchor

Ravens 27, Steelers 24: The Ravens have come a long way since a 1-5 start to the season. It’s been a year of injuries and ups and downs, but here we are. It all comes down to this one game. If the Ravens have Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry, I think they can do it. Baltimore needs to feed the ball to Henry and go for a division title.

Have a news tip? Contact Tim Schwartz at timschwartz@baltsun.com, 410-332-6200 and x.com/timschwartz13. 

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