ExtremeRavens Posted October 31 Posted October 31 The Ravens stumbled and bumbled to a 29-24 loss in Cleveland. The Broncos handled the pitiful Panthers, 28-14. Which of these AFC playoff aspirants will have the advantage when they meet Sunday afternoon at M&T Bank Stadium? Ravens passing game vs. Broncos pass defense Lamar Jackson is on pace for the best passing season of his career, leading the league in passer rating and ranking second in yards per attempt, touchdowns and ESPN’s QBR metric for all-around performance. He threw several passes that could have been picked off in the loss to Cleveland but was let down by three third-down drops (two from Rashod Bateman and one from Nelson Agholor). His scrambling covered for a poor performance by his offensive line as he took just three sacks despite being pressured on 21 of his 43 dropbacks. On the bright side, wide receiver Zay Flowers bounced back from a Week 7 ankle injury to catch seven passes for 115 yards, and tight end Mark Andrews caught a touchdown pass for the third straight game. Tight end Isaiah Likely also had his most productive receiving game since the season opener in Kansas City. The Ravens need to find ways to keep him involved given his dynamism after the catch. They added another weapon this week when they traded for wide receiver Diontae Johnson. Jackson, who missed practice Wednesday for what coach John Harbaugh called a rest day, has consistently beat pressure this season, which will be essential against an excellent Denver defense that ranks second in sacks and blitz rate and fourth in pressures per dropback. Defensive coordinator Vance Joseph doesn’t have a Myles Garrett-level edge rusher at his disposal, but 12 different Broncos have sacks this season, led by outside linebackers Nik Bonitto and Jonathon Cooper and defensive end Zach Allen. Denver also has a very good secondary, led by Pro Bowl cornerback Patrick Surtain II and safety Brandon Jones. The Broncos rank ninth in the league with 12 takeaways. Jackson will not only need better games from tackles Ronnie Stanley and Roger Rosengarten; he’ll need Justice Hill to pick up blitzes and catch screens to punish Denver’s aggression. The Ravens got away from their play-action game against Cleveland, but it will be their friend against a Broncos defense that might be the best they’ve faced. EDGE: Ravens Broncos passing game vs. Ravens pass defense Rookie quarterback Bo Nix threw four interceptions before his first touchdown pass but has played better recently, with seven touchdowns against just one pick over his last four games. He just threw for career-bests of 284 yards and three touchdowns against the Panthers’ putrid defense. Wide receiver Courtland Sutton (29 catches on 58 targets, 377 yards, two touchdowns) is the top playmaker. Tight end Adam Trautman emerged as a surprising threat with four catches for 85 yards and a touchdown against Carolina. Nix is a threat to escape the pocket and has taken just 11 sacks behind a good offensive line led by left tackle Garett Bolles. This isn’t a high-octane offense, ranking 24th in yards per attempt and 28th in third-down conversion rate, but the Ravens made another poor passing attack look potent last weekend in Cleveland. Their four-man rush did not get home. They dropped several potential interceptions, including one by safety Kyle Hamilton that could have clinched the game. Defensive coordinator Zach Orr became predictable with his all-out blitzes, and Jameis Winston ultimately beat him over the top with a game-winning touchdown strike. The Ravens came out of another disappointing performance ranking last in passing yards allowed and 25th in DVOA against the pass (they were first in that efficiency metric last season). They tried to shake things up by benching starting safety Marcus Williams and giving more snaps to veteran Eddie Jackson. They missed two of their top three cornerbacks in Marlon Humphrey (knee) and Nate Wiggins (illness). But this isn’t a one-week problem; they’ve struggled to prevent chunk passing plays in almost every game. Even their positive statistics — tied for fourth with 24 sacks — belie the fact that they’re failing to make opposing quarterbacks uncomfortable for long stretches. EDGE: Broncos Ravens running game vs. Broncos run defense The Ravens lead the league in yards per game (200) and per carry (6.2) but were unable to use their ground game to dictate pace against the Browns. Derrick Henry averaged 6.6 yards per carry but largely disappeared from the game plan in the second half with the Ravens playing from behind. The NFL’s leading rusher ended up carrying a season-low 11 times — a reminder that for all the potency of the Jackson-Henry combination, the Ravens need to build early leads to maximize its impact. They’ll try to crack a Denver defense that has allowed just four yards per carry, fifth-best in the league. It’s telling that the Broncos’ three losses also featured their three worst performances against the run. They have not faced many dynamic offenses (only Tampa Bay ranks top 10 in DVOA) so the Ravens will present a different level of challenge. Denver has a good pair of inside linebackers in Justin Strnad and Cody Barton and an excellent run stuffer in nose tackle Malcolm Roach. The Ravens will attack them on the edges with Henry and hope to break a few long runs. EDGE: Ravens READER POLL: What is your biggest area of concern for the Ravens? Broncos running game vs. Ravens run defense Coach Sean Payton rarely goes away from his ground game entirely. Denver ranks 14th in rushing and 13th in yards per carry, splitting carries between Javonte Williams (3.8 yards per attempt) and Jaleel McLaughlin (4.1 yards per attempt). Nix (259 yards, five per attempt, team-high four touchdowns) is also a threat to scramble or pick up key yards on an occasional designed run. The Broncos’ line, featuring Quinn Meinerz and former Raven Ben Powers at the guard spots, is solid here as well. The Ravens have allowed the fewest yards and yards per attempt in the league but could be thin on the interior after defensive tackles Michael Pierce (calf) and Brent Urban (concussion) left the Browns game early. Their top defensive tackle, Travis Jones, is dealing with an ankle injury and played just 15 snaps in Cleveland. The Browns found some early success handing off to Nick Chubb, and though the Ravens ultimately held him to 52 yards on 16 carries, it will be interesting to see if the Broncos go right at them. Ravens defensive tackle Michael Pierce was placed on injured reserve with a calf injury. (David Richard/AP) Harbaugh said stopping the run will be essential against Denver. The Ravens will need a better game from their defensive leader, linebacker Roquan Smith. His partner, first-year starter Trenton Simpson, has played well, but Hamilton has turned into the team’s other big playmaker against the run. All the metrics say the Ravens have a clear edge over Denver here, but that margin could be reduced with Pierce on injured reserve and Jones and Urban hurting. EDGE: Ravens Ravens special teams vs. Broncos special teams Justin Tucker missed a 50-yard attempt in Cleveland that would have tied the game in the fourth quarter. He did not strike the ball with his usual power, reviving questions that arose after he missed a field goal in each of the Ravens’ first three games. Tucker’s inconsistency is one reason the Ravens rank 25th in special teams DVOA. They’ve also made too many poor decisions that have cost them field position in the return game. Punter Jordan Stout has been the bright spot. Denver, meanwhile, ranks fourth in special teams DVOA, with no real weakness. Former Raven Wil Lutz has made 17 of 18 field goal attempts. Marvin Mims has averaged 11 yards on punt returns. Riley Dixon has put 48.8% of his punts inside the opponent’s 20-yard line. EDGE: Broncos Ravens intangibles vs. Broncos intangibles Payton is a proven winner, and he has the Broncos chasing a playoff spot with a rookie quarterback and a roster largely devoid of superstars. His team’s excellent defense and special teams provide a sturdy foundation. With Nix improving, the Broncos could become a serious threat. They’re 3-1 on the road, so they’ll come to M&T Bank Stadium expecting to upset the Ravens. The only real knock against them is that they’ve done it against an easy schedule. Harbaugh’s Ravens have played tougher competition but have inexplicably found ways to lose to their two worst opponents: the Browns and the Las Vegas Raiders. It’s hard to imagine they’ll take the Broncos lightly coming off that defeat in Cleveland. But the Ravens are scrambling to find answers on a defense that has performed far below expectations. They’re also dealing with real injury adversity for the first time this season. Their ace in the hole remains Jackson, who’s almost always the best player on the field and has won 74% of his career starts. EDGE: Ravens Prediction What looked like a sure win when the schedule came out feels like anything but for the Ravens given Denver’s all-around defensive strength and Nix’s rapid improvement at quarterback. The Ravens have made almost every opposing quarterback look good, and they can’t just count on their offense to light it up against the league’s No. 3 scoring defense. That said, they’re easily the best team the Broncos have played, and they’ll come out with some urgency after losing in Cleveland. Sometimes, it really is just about which team has the better quarterback. Jackson will be the difference late in a rugged matchup. Ravens 27, Broncos 23 Have a news tip? Contact Childs Walker at daviwalker@baltsun.com, 410-332-6893 and x.com/ChildsWalker. View the full article Quote
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