ExtremeRavens Posted November 14 Posted November 14 The Ravens hung on to beat the Bengals, 35-34. The Steelers rallied to knock off the Commanders, 28-27. Who will have the advantage when these rivals meet Sunday in Pittsburgh with first place in the AFC North up for grabs? Ravens passing game vs. Steelers pass defense Lamar Jackson is on his way to not only the best passing season of his career but one of the most efficient passing seasons in NFL history. He leads all quarterbacks in yards per attempt, touchdown passes, passer rating and ESPN’s QBR. He’s piloting an offense that’s the fourth best through 10 games ever measured by DVOA. The Bengals initially flummoxed him by not attacking as they had five weeks earlier in Cincinnati, but Jackson figured that out as well, throwing for 219 yards and three touchdowns after halftime as the Ravens rallied to victory. Wide receiver Zay Flowers (50 catches, 688 yards, 3 TDs) and tight end Mark Andrews (30 catches on 36 targets, 5 TDs in past five games) have settled in as his top targets, but the beauty of the Ravens’ offense is any playmaker can become the star in a given week, as Tylan Wallace did with his 84-yard catch-and-run against Cincinnati. Rashod Bateman also bounced back from a pair of rough weeks with six catches, including the game-winning touchdown. Pittsburgh’s defense has been the closest thing to kryptonite for Jackson, who’s 1-3 as a starter against the Steelers with a 66.8 passer rating. He has also missed six games in the rivalry because of injury, illness or rest. Last year, a flabbergasting series of drops by Ravens receivers left Jackson on the wrong end of a 17-10 loss in Pittsburgh. The Steelers will present a monumental test to Jackson’s pass protection because they bring pressure from the edges and from the interior without blitzing at a high rate or sacrificing discipline. Outside linebacker T.J. Watt (6 1/2 sacks, 16 quarterback hits) and defensive tackle Cam Heyward (five sacks, 14 quarterback hits) are familiar nemeses and remain as good as anyone at their positions. Pittsburgh’s other top edge rusher, Alex Highsmith, is out after he injured his ankle against the Commanders, but the Steelers will likely welcome back second-year outside linebacker Nick Herbig, who had 2 1/2 sacks in five games before he hurt his ankle in early October. Jackson has punished pressure of all kinds this season, but his offensive line could not give him a consistently clean pocket in the Ravens’ Oct. 27 loss to the Cleveland Browns, the last opponent to attack with so many high-end pass rushers. If Jackson does have time to operate, there are defenders to attack in the Pittsburgh secondary, including former Ravens linebacker Patrick Queen and cornerbacks Donte Jackson and Joey Porter Jr. Even there, the Steelers are dangerous, with 16 takeaways so far this season. EDGE: Ravens Steelers passing game vs. Ravens pass defense Russell Wilson has fundamentally changed Pittsburgh’s offense in three games since he took over for Justin Fields as the team’s starting quarterback. Wilson has completed just 58.8% of his passes but has averaged 8.7 yards per attempt compared with 6.9 for Fields because he’s still gifted at throwing downfield. His presence has invigorated No. 1 receiver George Pickens (14 catches, 276 yards, 2 TDs in Wilson’s three starts). Wilson also found new addition Mike Williams on a beautiful 32-yard connection for the winning score against Washington. This is all bad news for a Ravens secondary that has allowed more 20-yard-plus catches than any in the league and that cannot cover No. 1 wide receivers. Pickens isn’t as reliable or dynamic as Cincinnati’s Ja’Marr Chase, who just torched the Ravens for 264 yards and three touchdowns, but he’s plenty capable of winning one-on-one matchups downfield and in the red zone. Tight ends Pat Freiermuth and Darnell Washington are also reliable targets. If there’s any good news for the Ravens, it’s that Wilson doesn’t like to attack the middle of the field, where they’ve been particularly soft. But they desperately need better performances from cornerback Brandon Stephens and safety Marcus Williams, both of whom played dreadfully against the Bengals. They’ll hope to have their best defensive player, safety Kyle Hamilton, who injured his ankle against Cincinnati. The Ravens at least got their pass rush going in that shootout victory with Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow being pressured on 29 dropbacks. Defensive tackle Travis Jones was healthy for the first time in a month and made an immediate difference. Defensive tackle Nnamdi Madubuike had his best game of the season with 10 pressures and three sacks. Edge rushers Kyle Van Noy and Odafe Oweh combined for 16 pressures. Wilson isn’t the runner he was in his youth, but he still likes to hold the ball as he probes for downfield targets, so the Ravens will have their chances to reach him. Pittsburgh’s offensive line is a mixed bag. Left tackle Dan Moore Jr. has graded much better than right tackle Broderick Jones as a pass blocker. EDGE: Steelers Ravens running game vs. Steelers run defense The Ravens still lead the league in rushing and yards per attempt but failed to exceed 100 yards for the first time all season against Cincinnati. Derrick Henry, the league’s leading rusher, carried 16 times for 68 yards and a touchdown but never broke loose for a big gain. Jackson tightroped down the sideline for one of the most jaw-dropping 10-yard scrambles you’ll ever see as the Ravens rallied past the Bengals, but he hasn’t looked to run much (10 carries, 37 yards) since he missed two practices with knee and back injuries leading up to the Ravens’ Nov. 3 win over the Denver Broncos. Keaton Mitchell, a change-of-pace sensation for the Ravens as a rookie last season, returned from a serious knee injury but played just two offensive snaps against the Bengals. Might he play a larger role in Pittsburgh to make the Steelers account for a a different look? Ravens running back Derrick Henry rushed for just 68 yards in his last outing, a win over the Bengals. (Kim Hairston/Staff) Pittsburgh’s defense ranks fourth against the run, having allowed just 3.8 yards per carry. Only the New York Giants went off against the Steelers with 157 yards in an Oct. 28 Pittsburgh victory. Watt and Heyward are known as pass rushers first but both make big plays against the run. Ravens fans know Queen covers ample ground in the middle, even if his Pro Football Focus grade says he has been a below-average run defender in Pittsburgh. Another former Raven, strong safety DeShon Elliott, remains a violent hitter in run support. His partner, free safety Minkah Fitzpatrick, also excels in this area. Pittsburgh will try to keep Henry from getting to the edge and punish him when he gets finds open ground. He averaged a modest 4.1 yards per carry against the Steelers when playing for the Tennessee Titans. EDGE: Even Steelers running game vs. Ravens run defense The Steelers have run persistently but not efficiently this year, ranking second in the league in attempts but 24th in yards per carry. Starting running back Najee Harris (645 yards, 4.1 per carry) hurt his ankle against Washington but is expected to play Sunday. Backup Jaylen Warren averaged 5.3 yards per carry last season but is down to 3.9 in 2024. He’ll present a formidable challenge between the tackles if Harris is limited. Fields was a greater running threat than Wilson, but Pittsburgh’s ground game hasn’t taken a notable step back since the quarterback switch. The Ravens have allowed the fewest yards per game and per carry in the league, and many opponents simply abandon the run because there’s so much more damage to be done through the air. If the Steelers stick doggedly to grounding and pounding, they might play into the hands of a Baltimore defense most comfortable in that style of game. Jones’ return bolstered an interior line that’s still missing Michael Pierce (calf). For all his struggles in coverage, linebacker Roquan Smith remains an excellent playmaker against the run. If Hamilton is absent or limited, the Ravens would be without their other stellar run defender. EDGE: Ravens Ravens kicker Justin Tucker has been inconsistent this season, while the Steelers’ Chris Boswell has only missed one field-goal attempt in 24 tries.(Kenneth K. Lam/Staff) Ravens special teams vs. Steelers special teams Ravens kicker Justin Tucker continued his confounding season, missing an extra point attempt against the Bengals. With that misfire and four missed field goal attempts, he’s a significant reason the Ravens rank an unfamiliar 19th in special teams DVOA. On the bright side, Mitchell could bolster their return game, and punter Jordan Stout continued his string of excellent performances against Cincinnati. The Steelers rank third in special teams DVOA with three standout performers in kicker Chris Boswell (23 of 24 on field goal attempts), punter Corliss Waitman and punt returner Calvin Austin III (11.9-yard average, touchdown vs. the Giants). EDGE: Steelers Ravens intangibles vs. Steelers intangibles John Harbaugh and Mike Tomlin are the league’s longest-tenured coaches and longest-standing rivals. The Ravens have won more games, made more playoff appearances and captured more AFC North titles since Jackson arrived on the scene in 2018. But they have lost seven of their past eight, often bizarrely and with Jackson sidelined, against the Steelers. Jackson might be headed for his third NFL Most Valuable Player award. His .747 winning percentage as a starter is undeniable. He also has never played a truly great game against Pittsburgh. The Ravens, with seven wins in their past eight games, will come in with a welcome three-day rest advantage. The Steelers, holding a 1/2-game advantage in the division, have won four straight and discovered a big-play component with Wilson at quarterback. They’re 3-1 at home. This has all the makings of a great rivalry game. EDGE: Steelers Prediction Pittsburgh has the defensive talent to pressure Jackson without blitzing. Wilson’s downfield strikes to Pickens feel like the perfect arrows to shoot at a shockingly vulnerable secondary. The Steelers have owned this series since 2019 despite the Ravens’ overall superiority, and they’ll go into Sunday believing they have the formula to continue their dominance. So much comes down to Jackson, who’s on the greatest passing roll of his career. Can he go off against the opponent that has troubled him more than any other? Not this time. Pittsburgh will limit him just enough, and Wilson will exploit the Ravens’ fatal flaws. Steelers 27, Ravens 24 View the full article Quote
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