ExtremeRavens Posted December 9 Posted December 9 The Ravens arrived at their bye week in need of a reset. Coming off a 24-19 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles, Baltimore is 8-5 and 1 1/2 games behind the first-place Pittsburgh Steelers in the AFC North. While the Ravens are a virtual lock to make the postseason — owning a 97% chance according to the NFL’s Next Gen Stats — two losses in three games have raised concerns about the feasibility of a long-awaited Super Bowl run. With only four games left in the regular season, Baltimore Sun reporters Brian Wacker, Childs Walker and Sam Cohn and editor C.J. Doon answer questions about the most-scrutinized right leg in Charm City, the team’s biggest concerns entering the postseason, the AFC North race and what to expect from Lamar Jackson. Will Justin Tucker’s struggles lower the Ravens’ ceiling as a contender? Wacker: No. Of the various concerns the Ravens have, Tucker’s woes are climbing the ladder but are still not among the top two or three concerns. Baltimore’s pass rush has been better but is inconsistent. The defense, while improved, is not close to dominant. Cracks in the offensive line could be starting to form. And the offense still too often lets opponents off the hook (of which Tucker is certainly part of the problem). But if the Ravens don’t reach the Super Bowl, it won’t be because of Tucker’s struggles. Walker: Tucker’s inconsistency isn’t likely to be the nail in the Ravens’ coffin because kicking is a relatively small part of most games. But it’s yet another reason for them to get tense in big games, and that’s not what this team needs given its history of postseason disappointments. John Harbaugh acknowledged the other day that he’s already less apt to send Tucker in for an exceptionally long attempt, and that in turn could change the way the Ravens manage drives in close games. For years, they knew that as soon as they crossed midfield, they were close to scoring at least three points. That confidence is no longer there, and it does matter, as we saw against the Eagles. Cohn: Certainly, but that doesn’t mean they can’t make a run despite his struggles. Tucker is a coin flip from 50-plus yards and even worse from 40-49 the past three games. When points are a premium, his uncertainty of a single-season career-low 70% make rate can be a momentum killer. But lowering the Ravens’ ceiling isn’t a death knell for their Super Bowl aspirations. In 2022, the Kansas City Chiefs won with Harrison Butler converting a career-low 75%. The Green Bay Packers won in 2010 despite 78.6% from Mason Crosby. And in 1990, Matt Bahr made 73.9% of kicks en route to the New York Giants winning the Super Bowl. Doon: Could it end up being a blessing in disguise? Kicks from 40-plus yards are now tense moments rather than an opportunity for a bathroom break for Ravens fans. Maybe Tucker’s struggles force Harbaugh to be more aggressive and keep his offense on the field in opposing territory. If you surveyed opposing fans in the heat of the moment, most would prefer to see Tucker trot onto the field than Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry. Perhaps that makes the difference in the postseason. Aside from the kicking game, what is this team’s greatest concern as the postseason nears? Wacker: Pass rush. The Ravens’ 41 sacks are third-most in the NFL, but that doesn’t paint the full picture when it comes to getting to or pressuring the quarterback. In pass rush win rate — which measures how often a pass rusher is able to beat his block within 2.5 seconds — Baltimore ranks just 26th, per ESPN analytics. They’re also 20th in pressure percentage per dropback and 28th in hurry percentage, according to Pro Football Reference. They’ve been better of late, but 33-year-old outside linebacker Kyle Van Noy, who is tied for the team lead with eight sacks, has just one sack over his past five games and is now dealing with hamstring and neck injuries. Odafe Oweh, who also has eight sacks, continues to make progress but remains inconsistent. Defensive tackle Nnamdi Madubuike is well down from the 13 sacks he had last season with just five this year, and fellow interior disruptor Travis Jones has played through an ankle injury. The Ravens can scheme up pressure and are trending in a better direction than earlier in the season, but too often opposing quarterbacks have time to throw, and that will be a problem come the playoffs if it continues. Walker: Their seeming discomfort in grimy slugfests like the ones they lost to Pittsburgh and Philadelphia. Ever since their first Super Bowl season 24 years ago, the Ravens have gone into most games assuming they would be bigger and meaner than the opposition. They’re still a tremendous running team with a world-class finisher in Derrick Henry. Their defense still dishes out its share of vicious hits. But there’s a sense now that the Ravens are most comfortable in a shootout with their offense in a quick-strike flow state. If the score is tight, with penalties, turnovers and disruptive rushes throwing their elite offense out of rhythm, they seem to lose their way. They don’t always win the trench warfare on other side of the ball. Will this dynamic change if say, they pull out a tense win over the Steelers four days before Christmas? Perhaps. But for now, this is an atypical Ravens team. Cohn: The way the offensive line has fared against playoff-caliber teams isn’t particularly inspiring. They’ve accounted for 36 penalties for 284 yards. That’s 10 more penalties for 22 more yards than any other position group. It’s a hitch the offense can’t afford come the postseason. Doon: The offense’s recent dip is noteworthy. Over the past few weeks, the Ravens are generating fewer big plays, taking more sacks and not playing nearly as efficiently as they did during their record-setting start. Jackson is not without blame, either. Over the past three weeks, according to ESPN, Jackson is converting 28.6% of his pass attempts into first downs, which ranks 30th out of 33 passers. He’s missed some easy throws he usually makes. With less margin for error because of problems on defense and special teams, Jackson and the offense have to be nearly perfect to lead the Ravens to the Super Bowl. Right now, they aren’t. Is the Ravens’ defensive turnaround from the last few weeks for real? Wacker: Yes, but it had only one way to go, especially against the pass. Baltimore’s secondary has improved thanks to addition by subtraction, with Ar’Darius Washington taking over for now-benched safety Marcus Williams. All-Pro safety Kyle Hamilton is being deployed more often on the back end, and cornerback Marlon Humphrey is playing well in the slot and outside. Still, don’t expect this defense to start playing like the 2023 version. The Ravens have also struggled mightily in takeaways. After recording a league-leading 31 last season, they rank 25th with a measly 11 this year. Recent adjustments by coordinator Zach Orr have the Ravens playing better defense. (Amy Davis/Staff) Walker: They really have tightened up their coverage on the back end, in part by simplifying their plan and in part by removing underperforming safeties Eddie Jackson and Marcus Williams. Coordinator Zach Orr has adapted his rotations and sets to make best use of his personnel, getting more cornerbacks on the field and switching linebackers based on game situations. We’ve seen it work against quality teams over the past month. Orr and his top players seemed genuinely dismayed after the Ravens surrendered 34 points and 470 yards in a Nov. 7 win over the Bengals. The frank meeting they held afterward and the culture of accountability flowing from it have led them to a better place. As Orr said recently, they still need to take the ball away more (and apply steadier pressure, he could have added). But the defense no longer feels like a reason they’d go in at a disadvantage against the AFC’s best. Cohn: It would’ve been hard to get worse, but it sure seems like this is more than a fluke — less because of the production and more because of how personnel changes align with the step forward. Defensive coordinator Zach Orr spent all season shuffling the back end. Communication was an issue, players said, but so was continuity. Since sticking with Ar’Darius Washington as a safety partner for Kyle Hamilton against the Steelers, the Ravens have allowed only one passing touchdown against three respectable offenses. And take this for what it’s worth, but Marlon Humphrey has been more transparent about the feeble group than anyone. After losing to the Eagles, he still felt like they’ve “turned that corner” even if “it’s not perfect.” Doon: It certainly feels like it is. We knew the defense was talented, so it’s not surprising to see the Ravens playing closer to their preseason expectations. Since Week 11, according to ESPN, Baltimore’s defense ranks eighth in expected points added per play after ranking 28th over the first 10 games. It was always going to take time for Orr to adjust and learn on the fly as a first-time play-caller. With the return of adviser Dean Pees and some notable personnel tweaks, the defense has stabilized, but it’s not going to become a true strength like it was in 2023. Will the Ravens win the AFC North, and does it matter? Wacker: No and yes. The Steelers will (probably) win at least three more games this season, which will get them to 12-5. The only way Baltimore can get to that is by running the table with wins over the Giants, Steelers, Texans and Browns. It’s not unfathomable the Ravens could sweep their remaining games, but that would mean figuring out a way to beat Pittsburgh, which has won eight of its past nine against Baltimore, including earlier this year in Pittsburgh. If both finish with the same record, things could get zany. The first tiebreaker for the division title is head-to-head record, followed by, if needed, best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the division, best won-lost-tied percentage in common games, best won-lost-tied percentage in games played within the conference and several more after that before landing on the 12th option: a coin toss. As for whether it will matter, it will if the Ravens have to go to Pittsburgh again, or Buffalo to play the Bills, in the first round. Walker: They have a better chance than meets the eye of making up their deficit in the division. The Ravens will likely be favored in each of their last four games, heavily against the Giants and the Browns. A Christmas visit to Houston won’t be easy, but they pack considerably more firepower than the Texans. So much will come down to that second meeting with the Steelers in Baltimore, and the guess here is the Ravens will finally turn the tables after losing eight of their past nine to Mike Tomlin’s crew. The Steelers also have dates upcoming against the Eagles and Chiefs, so it’s not hard to imagine them finishing 11-6. To the second part of the question, it’s not at all clear an AFC North title would increase the Ravens’ chances of making a deep postseason run. In fact, they might rather visit the Texans as a No. 5 seed than host the Steelers or Chargers as a No. 3 seed. As Lamar Jackson said after the Eagles loss, it will be far more important how they’re playing than where they’re seeded come January. Cohn: No, they will not. Yes, it matters, because it means they have to play another game in the playoffs to get where they want. And that game is very likely to be on the road against a team Baltimore has lot eight of its past nine meetings with. Those Pittsburgh Steelers can clinch the division with a win over the Ravens on Dec. 21. That outcome means a murky playoff path for the Ravens. Doon: Let me put on my tinfoil hat for a second. Don’t the Ravens want the No. 5 seed? That guarantees a wild-card matchup against the AFC South winner, which will be either the struggling Houston Texans or the inconsistent Indianapolis Colts. That seems preferable to a home game against either the Steelers, Chargers or Broncos. A divisional round matchup against the Chiefs in Arrowhead Stadium is also compelling given how vulnerable Kansas City looks right now. Home playoff games are great and AFC North champion flags fly forever, but in terms of the easiest path, the No. 5 seed looks tasty. (And to actually answer the question, yes, the Ravens go 4-0 down the stretch to finish 12-5 and the Steelers go 2-3 with losses to the Eagles, Ravens and Chiefs to slip to 11-6.) Is Lamar Jackson really more ready than he ever has been to lead the Ravens into the postseason? Wacker: Yes. He has taken steps forward in both his leadership and with his ability, including his accuracy, decision making and ball security. But there are not 21 other Lamar Jacksons on the field for Baltimore. The pass defense has improved but is still not great. The pass rush has flashed but is still inconsistent at best. The offense still has too many spurts when it doesn’t finish off drives. Justin Tucker continues to miss too many kicks. The Steelers still find ways to frustrate Jackson and the Ravens. And even if Baltimore can navigate all of that, the Chiefs are still better, especially when it matters the most. Walker: Yes. He has greater command of the offense. He’s processing more efficiently, making fewer errors and connecting on more big-time throws than in any previous season. His running will become a greater weapon in the postseason. He’s seemingly healthy and energized for what’s to come. His teammates look to him as a north star. The Ravens might not break through this year, but Jackson appears as ready to lead them as he could possibly be. Cohn: Absolutely. Last week, we talked to quarterbacks coach Tee Martin, maybe the third-most qualified person to speak on the inner workings of Jackson’s mind, behind the reigning NFL Most Valuable Player himself and his mom. Martin corroborated what we’ve all seen. Jackson took leaps and bounds in the passing game after making it a priority in the offseason. And his mind is “on another level.” Last year, Jackson was a bit timid in voicing how he wanted to attack defenses. Jackson has been much more direct in putting his foot down — in the best way possible. That’s exactly what the Ravens need from Jackson if they’re going to make a postseason run. Doon: Of course. How can he not be? There’s been plenty of time for Jackson to learn from his mistakes and understand what defenses are trying to do to stop him. The only question is whether he can settle down and avoid hunting for big plays, which gets him and the offense out of rhythm. When the protection breaks down, he should rely on his legs to move the chains. There are few, if any, playmakers more dangerous than Jackson, and this season might be the best version of him. He’s ready. Have a news tip? Contact sports editor C.J. Doon at cdoon@baltsun.com, 410-332-6200 and x.com/CJDoon. View the full article Quote
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