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Baseball Prospectus on Wieters


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... wow.


What did I learn this winter? I learned that Baltimore catching prospect Matt Wieters is good. Well, wait a second, I already knew that, so how about, "really good"? Nope, the extra modifier doesn't really do it justice.


How about this: after reviewing his performance, talking to the scouts and seeing what our numbers people came up with over the offseason, it's clear to me that 22-year-old Matt Wieters is the best prospect in baseball, the best player on the Orioles right now, and quite possibly the best catcher in the game. And he's yet to play an inning in the big leagues.


There's a full article on ESPN Insider if you want to read it...

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I have the subscription...


It pretty much says that by their standards... he has some of the highest numbers ever... literally, tops all time in some of their stat projection models... PECOTA projects him to have the 17th best season of any catcher ever this year. Their EQA model puts him 20 points ahead of any catcher in the league presently (if EQA is batting average like, Wieters is projected at 319 after being over 300 for two straight years... Mauer is at 291).


It just goes on and on and on...


And in terms of player similarities, the projections keep saying early years will look bunch like Mark Tex.

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If that isn't an enthusiastic-enough endorsement, then there's PECOTA, our projection system, and the most accurate one in the business. According to PECOTA, with a full slate of at-bats, Wieters should hit .311 with a .395 on-base percentage and a .544 slugging mark this year. That's good for a .319 EqA. How good is that? Historically great, because it would easily be the highest mark of any catcher in 2009, and in baseball history only 17 catchers have exceeded it.


According to PECOTA, the most similar player in baseball history to Wieters is Mark Teixeira, another switch-hitter with plenty of power and patience, as well as the ability to hit for a high average. That combination of skills was worth eight years and $180 million on the open market this offseason: If Wieters lives up to expectations, one shudders at the thought of his value on the market as a Teixeira clone with above-average defensive skills at catcher. No matter what the number, it certainly adds up to another big payday down the road for a Scott Boras client.


That is basically the whole article, with the rest of it explaining the math behind the projections.

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