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ExtremeRavens: The Sanctuary

Will O's finish > .500?


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I found this guy's prediction to be really goofy, and even before the apparent acquisition of Derrek Lee; this is Joe Sheehan's 10 predictions for MLB 2011 on SI.com http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2010/writers/joe_sheehan/12/20/2011.predictions/index.html?eref=sihp :


2. The Orioles will be next year's Padres. San Diego's storybook run ended just shy of success, the team falling to the Giants on the final day of the season to miss the NL West title and the postseason by one game. The Orioles will meet the same playoff-less fate in the loaded AL East, but not before getting the attention of the industry with their impressive set of young pitchers. Brian Matusz, Chris Tillman and Jake Arrieta are already in the majors, and top prospect Zach Britton could join them by midseason. The offense isn't yet ready for prime time, though it does include the underrated Nick Markakis and forgotten Matt Wieters. Look for the Orioles to finish above .500 for the first time since 1997.

Reasonable I guess, but made weird by prediction #3:


3. The Padres will be next year's Orioles. As much fun as 2010 was for the Padres, it wasn't built on a sustainable base of talent, but rather a collection of relievers and marginal veterans having big years, with just a couple of truly great players -- one of whom, Adrian Gonzalez, is no longer a Padre. The Padres have worked to improve their run prevention, upgrading the defense at second base, shortstop and center field; however, they have absolutely no power and will have an extremely poor offense, even accounting for their home park. They are, however, on the right track in the long term.

Maybe he's just pointing out two teams that are going in different directions and intersecting at a point of symmetry somehow, but to me it sounds kind of circular. I believe the O's efforts to this point in building a base of young talent along with signing a few key veterans (as they have now done) bodes much better for them than whatever SD had last year.

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For the record, I don't think the O's will finish substantially above .500, maybe within a few games either way, but not to be in contention for a division with several teams having much more established talent and consistent performance than the O's can overcome.


But the very well might have enough of an improvement to generate some interest from other talent around the league.

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