Offer to Holliday?

[dc.]

Bruce Cunningham, among others, is reporting that a source in Colorado (another reporter) has heard of a big offer from the O's to Holliday in the last few days...

 

8 years, 130 million.

 

 

If true, unbelievable. And certainly shaking things up. MacPhail really made it sound like Holliday wasn't on the radar. But maybe they are thinking more and more about making Reimold a 1B or something... gives this team lots of options, certainly.

[thundercleetz]

Maybe Holliday could be the one moving to first base? I am not sure if I like this offer. I do not see Holliday as a franchise player, and this is a franchise-type contract.

 

BTW, here is the Fox article:

 

Baltimore, meanwhile, did make an eight-year, $130 million offer to Holliday, and general manager Andy MacPhail did discuss the possibility of arranging a meeting between himself, Orioles owner Peter Angelos and Holliday in Austin, Tex., where Holliday is living in the offseason.

 

http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/Ringolsby-Holliday-contract-123009

 

The same article says the Cards "had made a proposal that could reach $140 million over eight years." How are the Cards going to pay Pujols after paying Holliday this much?

[ForceEight]

Agreed with Cleetz. The talent isn't really out there this year to throw around the big contracts. I think I'd actually be happier this offseason to see what he can piece together.

 

Also, there are reports that the Cards offered him 8 years and $140 million yesterday, so it wouldn't really matter anyway. Besides that, the guy is 30.

 

And, according to this report, the O's offer is true: http://msn.foxsports.com/mlb/story/Ringolsby-Holliday-contract-123009

[cravnravn]

And yet we couldnt pull a deal for whatshisname last year..The Yankee asshole thats from B-More.

[dc.]

Tex got too much for his talent. And we were never in the running.

 

 

Meanwhile, MacPhail has "vehemently" denied the report that the Orioles made any offer to Holliday. They won't, he says, unless Holliday drops his price significantly.

[thundercleetz]

Tex got too much for his talent. And we were never in the running.

 

 

Meanwhile, MacPhail has "vehemently" denied the report that the Orioles made any offer to Holliday. They won't, he says, unless Holliday drops his price significantly.

 

Yes, Tex might have gotten too much money, but there is no denying his talent as a franchise player. He will post a .920 OPS and play GG defense for the next seven years, he has a skill set that is going to age very well. Add that to his hometown appeal and I would have given the guy whatever he wanted. If you are not going to overpay for a guy like Tex, then who are you going to overpay for? Worst comes to worst you could have always traded him for a package of top prospects down the road. Tex proved in Texas and Anaheim that he could be "the guy" in the lineup. Players like him are hard to come by in trade and rarely hit the free agent market. The only way to get these types of hitters is (1) get lucky in the draft or (2) overpay in free agency. That is just the name of the game. Holliday on the other hand is more of an unknown. He doesn't play good defense and he is not an anchor in the lineup. He struggled as "the man" in Oakland, and really only thrived in loaded lineups in Colorado or hitting in front of or behind the best hitter in baseball. There is no way he is worth that much money, and he only plays LF. Now, if he was a GG 1B with his bat, I would be much more inclined to give him that deal, but not as an average left fielder.

 

I know what you are going to say dc, for every Tex there will be a Gonzalez or Fielder on the market soon enough. Well, what do you do when these guys are offered $200 million contracts? Is that too much? Overpaying is just part of putting a competitive team on the field unless you get lucky in the draft.

[83eh01]

I never believed it for a second and MacPhail clarified it to be bogus.

[dc.]

I know what you are going to say dc, for every Tex there will be a Gonzalez or Fielder on the market soon enough. Well, what do you do when these guys are offered $200 million contracts? Is that too much? Overpaying is just part of putting a competitive team on the field unless you get lucky in the draft.

 

Well, first, I am willing to pay that money to the right player when the time comes... I just don't think last year was necessarily the 'must have' time. Though, I do see the flaw in that argument (why not get a guy when you can get em? who cares if you're 2 years out so to speak)

 

But, with some power bats I wonder... are Tex, Gonzalez, or Fielder worth that much money as a first baseman? It's a power hitting position and Tex and Gonzalez have great numbers, but not 'double the money' numbers in my mind.

 

I just think that we can grab a power 1b at any time (almost). And they won't all cost 200m.

 

 

I never believed it for a second and MacPhail clarified it to be bogus.

 

I was hesitant to believe as well... but I really doubt and dislike people who say "MacPhail will never offer anyone over 5 years." While that might be the 'smart move' in terms of money, I think MacPhail is ready to spend when it's time to spend.

 

Why are we waiting to spend? Because you only spend when you know your needs. We are slowly figuring them out (they certainly aren't in the OF), but you don't spend ridiculously on a 3B if there's one coming up the pipe... but you also don't just ignore it. Balancing act.

[thundercleetz]

Well, first, I am willing to pay that money to the right player when the time comes... I just don't think last year was necessarily the 'must have' time. Though, I do see the flaw in that argument (why not get a guy when you can get em? who cares if you're 2 years out so to speak)

 

This is exactly why I believe we should have gotten Tex, Gonzalez will not be on the market until after the 2011 season.

 

But, with some power bats I wonder... are Tex, Gonzalez, or Fielder worth that much money as a first baseman? It's a power hitting position and Tex and Gonzalez have great numbers, but not 'double the money' numbers in my mind.

 

I just think that we can grab a power 1b at any time (almost). And they won't all cost 200m.

 

Then why haven't we gotten one? Sure, we could get Gonzalez, Cabrera, or Fielder, but we would have to give up the farm and if we didn't offer that $200 million contract, they would bolt as soon as they hit free agency. I guess we could grab a power 1B like Carlos Delagdo at any time, but not a guy like Tex, Gonzalez, M-Cab, or Fielder (well, we could have gotten Fielder, but we went for Adam Loewen).

 

I was hesitant to believe as well... but I really doubt and dislike people who say "MacPhail will never offer anyone over 5 years." While that might be the 'smart move' in terms of money, I think MacPhail is ready to spend when it's time to spend.

 

Why are we waiting to spend? Because you only spend when you know your needs. We are slowly figuring them out (they certainly aren't in the OF), but you don't spend ridiculously on a 3B if there's one coming up the pipe... but you also don't just ignore it. Balancing act.

 

I agree with this, which is why I truly believe Tex's $140 million offer last offseason was geniune. McPhail has a plan and I have never doubted it. This organization is heads and shoulders better than it was when McPhail first took over. I am glad McPhail is not spending on this year's free agent class. Much like the potential Carlos Lee contract and Alfonso Soriano's contract, we would probably regret that offer in three years (which is what the Stros and Cubs are starting to do now). 8-years at $16 million-plus is too much for a LF. I am just saying we would be in a lot better shape this season to contend if we had signed Tex last offseason (McPhail admitted as much). And signing Tex to a $200 million contract would not come back to bite us as he is likely to give the Yankees solid production over the length of the contract.

 

Maybe we will spend on Gonzalez in 2011 or Mauer in 2010, but the Red Sox or Yanks will probably give these guys $200 million. I do not think McPhail is afraid to spend, I just think he is afraid to overspend. He has a number in his mind of what a player should be worth, but often times that number is higher in reality because of competition. To get a big bat, you have to overpay, which is what McPhail will not do. And in the case of Tex and Gonzalez, not only do you get your big bat, but you likely keep that bat out of the lineup of a division rival, so that must be taken into consideration as well.

 

When you do find a franchise bat (which I consider Tex, Gonzalez, M-Cab, and Fielder to be) who is likely to give you solid production over the length of their contract, whether or not that player is worth an extra $5 million a year is irrelevent (which was the difference between our offer to Tex and the Yanks) in the sense that you will not get another opportunity to get a bat like that for another three years. So in the mean time, that extra $5-10 million is going toward stop gaps like Wigginton and Atkins. Case in point, look at the stop gaps in the outfield like Sosa, Gibbons, and Payton that we paid for because we did not take that extra step for Vlad. Those guys more than paid for the extra money per season during the length of Vlad's contract in LA, so in a sense we DID overpay by not getting Vlad. And the sad part is that Vlad put up solid production for the length of his contract, much like Tex probably will. We are curently on track to do the same thing with Tex with the likes of Wigginton and Atkins (who will make a combined $8-15 million this season), so we better hope that Snyder or Bell pans out.

[dc.]

Then why haven't we gotten one? Sure, we could get Gonzalez, Cabrera, or Fielder, but we would have to give up the farm and if we didn't offer that $200 million contract, they would bolt as soon as they hit free agency. I guess we could grab a power 1B like Carlos Delagdo at any time, but not a guy like Tex, Gonzalez, M-Cab, or Fielder (well, we could have gotten Fielder, but we went for Adam Loewen)

 

I see your point. But I look at the numbers and guys from the likes of Howard to Berkman to Mourneau all make in the range of 13-15m per year. Tex got 20m per year.

 

To me, he's not worth the extra 5m over those guys.

 

And then throw in the likes of a guy like Joey Votto... 322/25 HR last year in only 130 games... and he, like Gonzalez is still restricted. And I just don't think it's that hard to find a big man to stand on a corner and swing a bat. If we really wanted to, we could do it with Reimold right now and probably turn him into a 25-30 HR guy while Pie, Jones and Markakis patrolled the OF.

 

I guess my point is that everyone wants a 'power hitting 1B'... to me, anyone who hits for power could be a 1B (Reimold included). But if you can develop power and ability everywhere else on the field, that spot can be filled anytime...

 

 

 

Sidenote on Fielder... if you read "Moneyball" back in the day, it was funny to read that no one thought Fielder belonged as a top pick. Swisher was the guy to get and the A's were thankful that the Brew Crew gave Fielder the old 'family pull' ... how different things turn out, but Fielder wasn't really anyone's top pick.

[thundercleetz]

I see your point. But I look at the numbers and guys from the likes of Howard to Berkman to Mourneau all make in the range of 13-15m per year. Tex got 20m per year.

 

To me, he's not worth the extra 5m over those guys.

 

I think that is a little unfair of a comparison. Berkman got a six-year, $85 million contract back in 2005 at the age of 31 ($14.17M/yr.), Howard broke into the majors late and still has not hit free agency, and Justin Morneau is another guy who had his salary abritration years bought out. Morneau signed a six-year, $85 million contract as well back in 2008 at the age of 27 ($14.17M/yr.) and Howard signed a three-year $54 million extension in 2009 at the age of 29 ($14.33M/yr.). My point is that if any of these guys hit free agency they would have easily gotten Tex-money. You cannot compare the contracts of players who had their arbritration years bought out by their own team to players that signed free agent contracts. If we had the stud at first, then yes, a contract in the $13-15M/yr. range is fair. But when you have to get the guy in free agency, you have to pony up. Lets see what the Phillies, Cards, and Reds do when Howard, Pujols, and Votto hit free agency.

 

And then throw in the likes of a guy like Joey Votto... 322/25 HR last year in only 130 games... and he, like Gonzalez is still restricted. And I just don't think it's that hard to find a big man to stand on a corner and swing a bat. If we really wanted to, we could do it with Reimold right now and probably turn him into a 25-30 HR guy while Pie, Jones and Markakis patrolled the OF.

 

I guess my point is that everyone wants a 'power hitting 1B'... to me, anyone who hits for power could be a 1B (Reimold included). But if you can develop power and ability everywhere else on the field, that spot can be filled anytime...

 

To get Votto or Gonzalez would require giving up the farm (remember, Cincy wouldn't give up Votto in a potential Bedard deal). It does seem like everyone else has that power hitting 1B, but how come we don't have one? And it is not just about power either, Howard, Tex, Fielder, Votto, Gonzalez, Berkman, and Morneau all post an OPS north of .900. So not only are they hitting for power, they are getting on base. Could Reimold post a .900+ OPS? Maybe, I wouldn't put it past him. Then comes into the question, how much do you value solid defense? Tex, Votto, Gonzalez, Berkman, and Morneau all play very good defense. Sure we could put Reimold at first, but that is not as easy of a position as everyone thinks it is. After seeing Scott, Wigginton, Millar, Huff, Segui, Gibbons, etc. stink it up the past five years plus, I want someone who is solid on the bag.

 

 

Sidenote on Fielder... if you read "Moneyball" back in the day, it was funny to read that no one thought Fielder belonged as a top pick. Swisher was the guy to get and the A's were thankful that the Brew Crew gave Fielder the old 'family pull' ... how different things turn out, but Fielder wasn't really anyone's top pick.

 

Yeah, I cannot criticize the Loewen pick as he was seen as a stud. Nevertheless this reinforces my point about how getting a stud first baseman through the draft is luck. In 2001 we sweep the last three meaningless games against the Yanks and lost our inside track on Tex in the draft. We go Wade Townsend in the 2004 MLB draft then Billy Butler gets picked seven picks later. In 2008 we go Matusz in the first round, which is now seen as an excellent pick, but two stud first base prospects were on the board in Smoak and Alonso. In 2009 we hold the fifth pick again and there is nowhere near the amount of quality hitters on the board as there were in 2008. There have only been two All-Star first base prospects taken in the first round of the draft this decade, Tex and Gonzalez. Even in the draft can't miss first base prospects don't come around every year.

 

So here is my main point, getting a stud first baseman through the draft is a crapshoot and getting one through trade requires giving up the farm for a couple year rental if you are not willing to overpay. Thus, overpaying in free agency is the easiest way to get one of these studs. But even then a guy like Tex only comes up once every five years or so.

[thundercleetz]

Holliday signs with the Cards for 7-years $120 million. NO THANKS on that contract. Amazing, Boras got his contract AGAIN. I bet it was Boras who started the Orioles rumor.