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Big 12 adding a team


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#1 cravnravn

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Posted 03 September 2016 - 07:36 AM

What do think T, UCF have a chance? I'm within 5 miles of their campus, Saturdays are crazy enough around here I couldn't imagine big day football this close to me,
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#2 thundercleetz

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Posted 03 September 2016 - 12:15 PM

What do think T, UCF have a chance? I'm within 5 miles of their campus, Saturdays are crazy enough around here I couldn't imagine big day football this close to me,

I think UCF and USF would have to be a joint package for the Big 12. UCF has some good attributes with its enormous enrollment, on campus stadium, top TV market, and fertile recruiting ground. However, academics might keep UCF out of the Big 12. Also, could UCF really carry the state of Florida for the Big 12? It's already saturated with UF, FSU, and Miami. Not to mention the Bucs and Dolphins, Rays and Marlins, etc. I have also heard a rumor that the Big 12 has a gentleman's agreement with the SEC to not expand into SEC territory. Given there will not be a Big 12 Network, the size of a TV market is less important which is a strike against UCF.

I think the Big 12 adds the two best football schools: BYU and Houston. They aren't looking for schools that will be elevated by the conference, they are looking for schools that will elevate the conference. Both BYU and Houston can immediately compete and make the conference stronger in football. BYU has better attendance and TV rating than many P5 schools. BYU's fan base is national and travels well. Houston has good TV rating within the Houston market which the last five years has turned into an SEC market with A&M close by. Houston would also get great attendance numbers from playing the Texas and Oklahoma schools.
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#3 papasmurfbell

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Posted 03 September 2016 - 12:54 PM

They are also looking for TV markets.  If they do a Fla school it will only be one of them.  UCONN might have a good in there too.  Also going for one of the teams from Texas would be a big win.


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k2-_2564f5e3-aa08-456b-81e9-b7cffd9b394d

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#4 thundercleetz

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Posted 03 September 2016 - 02:54 PM

They are also looking for TV markets.  If they do a Fla school it will only be one of them.  UCONN might have a good in there too.  Also going for one of the teams from Texas would be a big win.


Tv markets matter less since there will not be a Big 12 network. More emphasis on game attendance and team branding. Texas will not let go of the Longhorn Network and the $$$$ they are getting from that
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#5 papasmurfbell

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Posted 03 September 2016 - 03:04 PM

My fault.  I was thinking Big 10.  They really need to change one of the two conferences.


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#6 cravnravn

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Posted 03 September 2016 - 04:15 PM

we can nixe to houston
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#7 thundercleetz

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Posted 03 September 2016 - 07:07 PM

Good point. Haha hopefully the Big 12 only adds two schools so they'll actually be the Big 12. God forbid they add four schools and are the Big 12 with 14 schools.
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#8 cravnravn

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Posted 03 September 2016 - 08:49 PM

nice, local TV has the big 10 network, ACC network, SEC network...jeeeesh as I'm 15 years clean betting on this crap

Edited by cravnravn, 03 September 2016 - 08:50 PM.

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#9 thundercleetz

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Posted 04 September 2016 - 10:10 AM

nice, local TV has the big 10 network, ACC network, SEC network...jeeeesh as I'm 15 years clean betting on this crap


Which is exactly why the Big 12 won't add UCF or USF. Cable companies are already paying out the ass in rights fees for these networks. The cable companies in Florida don't want to pay out extra money for a Big 12 network. Without a Big 12 Network, UCF or USF has limited appeal.

ESPN already has UCF at a discount in the AAC, why would they pay more? The only reason ESPN created an ACC Network was because, allegedly, ESPN signed a bad contract with the conference years ago which stated if a conference network wasn't created by this year they would owe the ACC at least $40M.

Now ESPN is paying the likes of Wake Forest, Syracuse, and Boston College $25M a year. Not to mention ESPN is paying Texas $15M a year from ESPN for the Longhorn Network ON TOP of the Big 12 TV rights. No wonder Disney stock has been so heavily criticized.

UMD was smart to get out of the ACC.
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#10 papasmurfbell

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Posted 04 September 2016 - 11:07 AM

I can see them going to 14 teams really soon.  They need to be in competitive balance with the other conferences.  That is also why they would want a TV network.  Someone will back a deal for them to have one.


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Fako, Joe Fako I am the Pick Machine!!!


#11 thundercleetz

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Posted 04 September 2016 - 12:17 PM

I can see them going to 14 teams really soon.  They need to be in competitive balance with the other conferences.  That is also why they would want a TV network.  Someone will back a deal for them to have one.


Not impossible, but for a Big 12 Network to happen the TV networks would have to make Texas whole. Texas is guaranteed approximately $15M per year from ESPN until 2031. That's ON TOP of TV rights. So you're looking at assuring Texas gets all inclusive TV rights of at least $40-50M per year or so expanding out to 2031. Maybe more, because the B1G and SEC are up for new contracts in 2021 or so and Texas will want at least what those schools get.

So two scenarios: TV networks pay a lot more than what they are paying to make Texas whole and create a Big 12 Network (highly unlikely, this is what the Big 12 has been trying to do the last year, hiring consultants and exploring all expansion avenues, with no success). Or option two: other schools in the conference take less money to ensure Texas (and Oklahoma likely) continue to receive revenue equivalent to the B1G/SEC in exchange for a Big 12 Network (much more likely, as schools like Kansas Stats, Iowa State, Texas Tech, TCU and Baylor would have few options should Texas and Oklahoma leave the Big 12 and the conference collapses.)

ESPN lost $45M on the LHN in the first five years, I don't think they want to pay Texas more money. Especially after recently agreeing to pay Wake Forest, BC and Syracuse $25M a year through 2030. The other Big 12 schools have a tough pill to swallow coming up. 14 schools is much more deadweight for Texas and Oklahoma to handle than 12. At least BYU and Houston have proven they can survive on their own, I don't think the same can be said for UCF, USF or any other G5 school.
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#12 cravnravn

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Posted 04 September 2016 - 12:40 PM

Which is exactly why the Big 12 won't add UCF or USF. Cable companies are already paying out the ass in rights fees for these networks. The cable companies in Florida don't want to pay out extra money for a Big 12 network. Without a Big 12 Network, UCF or USF has limited appeal.
ESPN already has UCF at a discount in the AAC, why would they pay more? The only reason ESPN created an ACC Network was because, allegedly, ESPN signed a bad contract with the conference years ago which stated if a conference network wasn't created by this year they would owe the ACC at least $40M.
Now ESPN is paying the likes of Wake Forest, Syracuse, and Boston College $25M a year. Not to mention ESPN is paying Texas $15M a year from ESPN for the Longhorn Network ON TOP of the Big 12 TV rights. No wonder Disney stock has been so heavily criticized.
UMD was smart to get out of the ACC.


Disney stock is thru the roof, its 100 a share!!!
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#13 papasmurfbell

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Posted 04 September 2016 - 12:47 PM

The thing is these conferences are going to 16 teams.  Any conference not there will be left on the cold.  Texas could be shown there writing on the wall and told they need to get with the program.

 

 

Disney's stock is way down.  All the cable cutters are killing their cable division.

http://www.nasdaq.co...dis/stock-chart


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k2-_2564f5e3-aa08-456b-81e9-b7cffd9b394d

Fako, Joe Fako I am the Pick Machine!!!


#14 thundercleetz

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Posted 04 September 2016 - 12:56 PM

The thing is these conferences are going to 16 teams.  Any conference not there will be left on the cold.  Texas could be shown there writing on the wall and told they need to get with the program.
 
 
Disney's stock is way down.  All the cable cutters are killing their cable division.
http://www.nasdaq.co...dis/stock-chart


Not a bad point, but the conventional thought is that it will be four conferences of 16 for 64 schools. Not five conferences of 16. The market does not support more schools making $25M or more a year in TV rights than that. Pac 12 is at 12 and Big 12 is at 10, the Big 12 needs to get to 12 to ensure the Pac 12 doesn't try and steal Texas, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State and maybe Texas Tech (almost happened in 2011, could happen in 2024 when the Big 12 grant of rights expires).

If the Big 12 gets to 12 it should be safe until 2024 or so. Research and data states if the Big 12 expands to 12 teams and reduces to 8 conference games it will increase its chances of reaching the playoff by 12-15% or so. That's where the money is with the current system and its what I expect the Big 12 to do.

The next test will be 2024 when the Big 12 grant of rights expires and Texas and Oklahoma are essentially free agents. ACC was able to get their schools to sign a grant of rights extension through 2031, so that takes big names like FSU, Clemson and even Notre Dame off the market.

Can the Big 12 get Texas to agree to a grant of rights extension? If so, then the Big 12 will be perfectly fine at 12, and I don't foresee any other conference expansion.
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#15 thundercleetz

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Posted 04 September 2016 - 01:15 PM

Disney stock is thru the roof, its 100 a share!!!


As papa said, Disney stock is down. It's not $100 a share at around $94, down over 9% YTD when the market is up over 7%. Cord cutting is definitely a concern. But it's also an opportunity to gain market share: see Direct TV with Sling TV. Disney and Comcast aren't adjusting well thus far.
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#16 cravnravn

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Posted 04 September 2016 - 07:36 PM

when we bought it in 1999 it was 17 bucks a share, so yea I totally disagree with pops, apparently he doesn't know about long term investing.
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#17 papasmurfbell

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Posted 05 September 2016 - 01:09 PM

http://money.cnn.com...espn-star-wars/

It really isn't that hard.  It is realy just about reading.


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k2-_2564f5e3-aa08-456b-81e9-b7cffd9b394d

Fako, Joe Fako I am the Pick Machine!!!


#18 cravnravn

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Posted 07 September 2016 - 02:10 AM

http://money.cnn.com...espn-star-wars/
It really isn't that hard.  It is realy just about reading.


stocks should soar now for Disney, ESPN git rid of baylis
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#19 papasmurfbell

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Posted 07 September 2016 - 08:46 AM

Then you really do' understand how markets work.


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k2-_2564f5e3-aa08-456b-81e9-b7cffd9b394d

Fako, Joe Fako I am the Pick Machine!!!


#20 papasmurfbell

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Posted 07 September 2016 - 12:32 PM

https://www.washingt...-espn-is-dying/

A bunch of ESPN stats that show how things are going for them.


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k2-_2564f5e3-aa08-456b-81e9-b7cffd9b394d

Fako, Joe Fako I am the Pick Machine!!!





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