papasmurfbell Posted February 22, 2016 Posted February 22, 2016 http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.htmlIt is less than 3 pts. Bernie is 10.The thing is the young voters for Bernie I just don't think show up on election day. They will just move on. Seeing the GOP debates he attacks and that field turtles up. Take when Cruz criticized Trump for NY values. That was totally planned. Trump threw 9/11 in his face and Cruz dropped his head and gave up. It is not like it was hard to pivot off that but Cruz is weak. He did the same thing with Bush and Rubio. I don't think Trump has to give real policy positions. When I see interviews with his supporters they don't even care what he says. Quote
dc. Posted February 22, 2016 Posted February 22, 2016 http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/general_election_trump_vs_clinton-5491.htmlIt is less than 3 pts. Bernie is 10. The thing is the young voters for Bernie I just don't think show up on election day. They will just move on. Seeing the GOP debates he attacks and that field turtles up. Take when Cruz criticized Trump for NY values. That was totally planned. Trump threw 9/11 in his face and Cruz dropped his head and gave up. It is not like it was hard to pivot off that but Cruz is weak. He did the same thing with Bush and Rubio. I don't think Trump has to give real policy positions. When I see interviews with his supporters they don't even care what he says. On Bernie: they are showing up to primaries to fight Hillary, I think they'll show up in more force to fight a Trump. On Trump: his supporters don't really care what he says, but to get independents and even moderate conservatives he's going to need more than insults. In the end, he's a walking internet troll. No matter what you say he has a comeback that someone thinks is good. It's the ultimate in him saying, "that guy is a contrarian" ... If you agree, you've accepted an insult. If you disagree, you've proven the insult right and open the door to more... He calls it "counter punching" ... It's really just talented insecurity Quote
papasmurfbell Posted February 22, 2016 Posted February 22, 2016 They are showing for Bernie not to fight Clinton. If he is out I do believe they are as well. Quote
dc. Posted February 22, 2016 Posted February 22, 2016 They are showing for Bernie not to fight Clinton. If he is out I do believe they are as well.I misunderstood. I think you're right that many won't vote if he isn't the Nominee. But the same goes for people not voting for Trump. I still think Clinton wins that, pretty easily. Quote
papasmurfbell Posted February 22, 2016 Posted February 22, 2016 I think she will lose more than he will. Quote
dc. Posted February 23, 2016 Posted February 23, 2016 But I think she can afford to, which is what we're seeing in those competition polls... She's losing some Bernie followers, but still holding on. And I still think no matter the opponent, Trump will struggle in a one on one election when he's pegged to issues instead of style Quote
papasmurfbell Posted February 23, 2016 Posted February 23, 2016 But that is assuming she keeps the blocks she has now. I think her keeping the black vote is debatable. The Michelle Alexander article is devastating. The vid of her with the super predators is also devastating. Quote
thundercleetz Posted February 25, 2016 Posted February 25, 2016 Did some reading yesterday, sounds like Bernie is looking to take the primary all the way to the convention. From my understanding, if he is winning the popular vote things could get really messy and who knows what the super delegates will do even if Hillary has a significant lead in state count. Regardless, it means Bernie has a legitimate chance and has the financial backing to stay in it. I am still worried about his ability to make a dent in the black vote, and Hillary is still polling well amongst moderate Democrats, regardless of electability. Kind of opposite to Obama in 2008. Obama polled excellent with blacks, and he was more moderate than people think. There was not a question of whether Obama could connect with moderates like there is with Bernie. Hillary hypothetically could have taken the 2008 primary to the convention but backed out prior, probably because of party pressure. (Right now I am talking purely on the primary side not the general election). Hillary is still polling excellent with the elderly. I think Bernie will be hurt by the closed primaries where younger voters might not be registered, or independents who would like to vote for Bernie cannot. Luckily most of the Super Tuesday primaries are open. Quote
papasmurfbell Posted February 25, 2016 Posted February 25, 2016 Really HRC is doing well with the old and the rich. We will know how she is doing in the black vote once SC happens. The last I think 3 polls have Bernie leading in nationwide polls. I think she has to do really well in the next 2 weeks down south. After that Bernie get the midwest. Quote
papasmurfbell Posted February 25, 2016 Posted February 25, 2016 Are you seeing this vid of Balck Lives Matters ambush a clinton event? The woman has the quote "Bring them to heel" written on a sheet. HRC does not react well. This might be the end of her black firewall. Quote
thundercleetz Posted February 25, 2016 Posted February 25, 2016 Are you seeing this vid of Balck Lives Matters ambush a clinton event? The woman has the quote "Bring them to heel" written on a sheet. HRC does not react well. This might be the end of her black firewall.Her reactions have not been impressive by any means. If a Republican reacted in the same manner the media would probably chastise that candidate as a racist. Nonetheless, Hillary still has all the major endorsements. You cannot understate the importance of that. We live in a fairly progressive region where social media and alternative news sources have an extensive reach. We are surrounded by information which allows us to make informed decisions. It is not like that in all areas of the country. Many people are time limited where they cannot conduct the appropriate research to vote. Therefore, voting D or R, voting on name recognition, or voting based on union/organizational endorsement is still commonplace. Interesting read from the WSJ this morning on how both Hillary and Sanders have failed to connect with the black vote in SC: http://www.wsj.com/articles/democratic-rivals-black-outreach-efforts-fall-short-in-south-carolina-1456363377 Quote
papasmurfbell Posted February 25, 2016 Posted February 25, 2016 Actually in this day and age I think those endorsements mean less. They are coming from establishment politicians and Sanders and Trumps campaigns are proving the ppl hate the establishment. Quote
thundercleetz Posted February 25, 2016 Posted February 25, 2016 Actually in this day and age I think those endorsements mean less. They are coming from establishment politicians and Sanders and Trumps campaigns are proving the ppl hate the establishment. As I mentioned in my last post, I think we take that for granted living in Maryland. May not be the same in the South and less progressive regions of the country. But then again, Anthony Brown won the governor primary purely based on endorsements, despite there being a much better candidate (Mizuer). We'll know for sure after Super Tuesday. Nevada was supposed to be a region where endorsements didn't matter but Hillary still won. The Republican situation is just odd. While Trump's popularity is similar to Sanders in anti-establishment rhetoric, it is completely opposite in terms of logic. Sanders support comes from people who have done research and see Sanders as a fundamentally better candidate than Hillary. I don't think Trump voters are any more informed, they simply see him in the media, like the anti-establishment sentiment, don't fact check any of his claims and are maybe fear-driven. Quote
papasmurfbell Posted February 25, 2016 Posted February 25, 2016 Trumps anti-establishment followers are really stupid. Over 20% in SC wish the union had lost the civil war. They have polled to be so ignorant and stupid. Bernie has the educated group on the other end of that spectrum. Quote
dc. Posted February 25, 2016 Posted February 25, 2016 There are so many Trump contradictions, in terms of good his appeal and voter base. He truly is running an old 1940s cult of personality campaign. The contradiction of the day: people voting for him are the same ones calling Obama a dictator, tyrant, King, etc... And yet they are supporting a guy who has made clear hell do whatever he wants regardless of law, morality, and especially regardless of others opinions. So, either they're morons or they're intellectually dishonest hypocrites. "I hate tyranny unless it works for me" seems the most likely, but least appealing. Anyways, he's polling -80% among Latinos and equally or worse with black voters. No chance in a general election against either dem. Quote
papasmurfbell Posted February 25, 2016 Posted February 25, 2016 Unless ppl in mass stay home Nov 8. Quote
dc. Posted February 26, 2016 Posted February 26, 2016 If Trump stays in, people will not stay home. Quote
papasmurfbell Posted February 26, 2016 Posted February 26, 2016 I think you give the young and other groups that are not GOP voters way to much credit. Quote
dc. Posted February 26, 2016 Posted February 26, 2016 I am the young, not GOP. But I give many people too much credit. Quote
papasmurfbell Posted February 26, 2016 Posted February 26, 2016 I just see the historical voting trends. I am listening to TYT coverage of the debate. Rubio is talking a brokered convention. It could get real interesting this summer. Quote
dc. Posted February 26, 2016 Posted February 26, 2016 Well, if both Sanders and Rubio stay in to the end, we could see brokered... Sanders is going to stay in power his promise, but could fade and just be pushing his message. Rubio could get clobbered, but there's enough hope that the establishment will rise again and he wants to be that guy... Especially trying to gobble up other delegates. It's a cluster. Quote
thundercleetz Posted February 26, 2016 Posted February 26, 2016 I just see the historical voting trends. I am listening to TYT coverage of the debate. Rubio is talking a brokered convention. It could get real interesting this summer.I wonder if Trump takes on Rubio as a VP candidate as a compromise to the establishment. Maybe there is an under the table agreement that Trump would only serve one term? Speaking of VP candidates, who would Sanders take? I'm guessing Warren is the obvious choice. Oh boy Trump vs Hillary... Quote
dc. Posted February 26, 2016 Posted February 26, 2016 Rubio would also be an obvious pick because he is not running for his Senate seat so he'll need a job. But not sure if Marco would take it. Bernie wouldn't take Warren; need her in Senate and needs a moderate, much like Trump. This debate has been entertaining. Rubio is really aiming at Trump. But sad they are leaving Kasich and Carson out, literally not in camera... Quote
papasmurfbell Posted February 26, 2016 Posted February 26, 2016 I wonder if Trump takes on Rubio as a VP candidate as a compromise to the establishment. Maybe there is an under the table agreement that Trump would only serve one term? Speaking of VP candidates, who would Sanders take? I'm guessing Warren is the obvious choice. Oh boy Trump vs Hillary...Wes Clark said the other day Trump would choose a guy out of left field. He has to suspect being impeached from day one so you choose someone who is even more unpalatable to the establishment. Rubio would also be an obvious pick because he is not running for his Senate seat so he'll need a job. But not sure if Marco would take it. Bernie wouldn't take Warren; need her in Senate and needs a moderate, much like Trump. This debate has been entertaining. Rubio is really aiming at Trump. But sad they are leaving Kasich and Carson out, literally not in camera...This is a 3 man race now. Carson has been out for months now. This is just for underwriting his book tour. Quote
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