Is It Really This Bad?

[papasmurfbell]

She was in a much better position this time 8 yrs ago. Seh was the absolute lock then.

[dc.]

I can see that with all the baggage Hillay has. Probably waiting for a firm answer on Biden before deciding to push O'Malley. Me personally, I don't care for O'Malley. And it has little to do with how he did as governor of MD (which I don't actually have a problem with).

 

 

I think the thing with minority voter bases and Bernie is not whether they approve of him (probably still preferable to a Republican to many), but whether they approve of him enough to go out and vote. Minority voter bases historically have lower voter turnout rates, but turnout got much better with Obama's two campaigns. Hillary seems like a safe bet for the party in regards to building on Obama's success in voter turnout with minorities, and of course, women.

 

Sanders is a risk in the sense of not only minority turnout, but for the moderate white voter in swing states. Not saying the moderate voter would automatically vote Republican, but might not turnout at all.

I agree on all accounts. Re: O'Malley, I agree that I have less issue with his rule of MD than most (long term, his success will be judged better given the quality of life achievements in the midst of a recession). But like Hillary he can be smug and like any politician, incredibly fake.

[vmax]

[dc.]

There's more wrong with that poster than I care to discuss.

[papasmurfbell]

A little more than 4 months later and HRC is falling apart.

[thundercleetz]

Not quite. Even after a poor showing in NH, that did not mean much in terms of delegates. Hillary is holding a commanding lead in SC:

 

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/sc/south_carolina_democratic_presidential_primary-4167.html

 

SC will be a big test for Bernie as it has a diverse counties that are better representative of the country as a whole. If he polls strong in SC he will have some serious momentum. If not, it will be a difficult battle going into Super Tuesday.

[Spen]

A little more than 4 months later and HRC is falling apart.

But it's her time! The Clintons will probably dig up something bad on him soon.

[dc.]

Not quite. Even after a poor showing in NH, that did not mean much in terms of delegates. Hillary is holding a commanding lead in SC:

 

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/sc/south_carolina_democratic_presidential_primary-4167.html

 

SC will be a big test for Bernie as it has a diverse counties that are better representative of the country as a whole. If he polls strong in SC he will have some serious momentum. If not, it will be a difficult battle going into Super Tuesday.

Delegates are really for Bernie, the story delegate counts should not be added yet as they change with popular opinion.

 

Bernie is about to win Nevada which will be huge and could turn many other states. I think she's in near free fall again.

[papasmurfbell]

Not quite. Even after a poor showing in NH, that did not mean much in terms of delegates. Hillary is holding a commanding lead in SC:

 

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/sc/south_carolina_democratic_presidential_primary-4167.html

 

SC will be a big test for Bernie as it has a diverse counties that are better representative of the country as a whole. If he polls strong in SC he will have some serious momentum. If not, it will be a difficult battle going into Super Tuesday.

 

Delegates are really for Bernie, the story delegate counts should not be added yet as they change with popular opinion.

 

Bernie is about to win Nevada which will be huge and could turn many other states. I think she's in near free fall again.

Exactly. She had a 20 pt lead in NV 6 weeks ago and now it is tied or him winning. She is pulling up stakes in NV like she expects to lose.

 

SC she has a slight slide going and remember NV is diverse. With all the stuff being pulled up from the insinuating Obama's assassination in 08 to the Michelle Alexander article showing the love for AA is mostly smoke and mirrors she is crashing fast.

[thundercleetz]

I understand both your points but Nevada is very much like NH and Iowa: it has a large, white, kind of anti-establishment voting demographic. And that goes for both Democrats and Reublicans in those states. Now Nevada has a fairly sizable Hispanic population. If Bernie wins Nevada but Hillary whips him with Hispanics that still signals trouble for Bernie.

 

Bottom line: I'm holding back my expectations until after SC.

[papasmurfbell]

That is the thing. She is sliding in the Hispanic vote now. Her failed abuela tweet. She is sliding in all demos except the old and the rich.

 

For SC she has to win by at least 30 pts or she is sliding like made there too.

[thundercleetz]

Hillary won Nevada. Bernie won the Hispanic vote, but Hillary absolutely demolished Bernie with the black vote. That doesn't bode well for him in SC. However, Nevada is a closed primary and that for sure hurt Bernie I would guess. SC is an open primary.

 

http://www.cnn.com/election/primaries/polls/NV/Dem

[dc.]

Nevada is also a caucus and has incredibly low turnout. Mixed signals for both on that.

 

I still agree with Papa - anything less than a 20 point win in SC is a loss of sorts of Hillary.

 

Meanwhile - Trump might sweep SC for the GOP in terms of delegates. Jeb is out. Rubio is going to consolidate the establishment vote - but Kasich did well for almost not campaigning there.

 

We're dangerously close to a Trump nomination. It's embarrassing. Ugh.

[cravnravn]

Nevada is also a caucus and has incredibly low turnout. Mixed signals for both on that.

 

I still agree with Papa - anything less than a 20 point win in SC is a loss of sorts of Hillary.

 

Meanwhile - Trump might sweep SC for the GOP in terms of delegates. Jeb is out. Rubio is going to consolidate the establishment vote - but Kasich did well for almost not campaigning there.

 

We're dangerously close to a Trump nomination. It's embarrassing. Ugh.

This entire process Dems vs repub is a joke, make that an embarrassment. Either party will have a clown representing.

[papasmurfbell]

I am also hearing about a ton of dirty tricks in NV going for Hillary. Remember that hispanics are a larger minority than the black vote now. HRC won by 5 pts. In Dec she was leading by 25 pts in the polls. She is sliding fast now. Ppl are starting to really pay attn and they don't like her.

[papasmurfbell]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kTwXvRt6tyM&feature=youtu.be

[thundercleetz]

I am also hearing about a ton of dirty tricks in NV going for Hillary. Remember that hispanics are a larger minority than the black vote now. HRC won by 5 pts. In Dec she was leading by 25 pts in the polls. She is sliding fast now. Ppl are starting to really pay attn and they don't like her.

With the sort of leads she had initially it was inevitable they were going to shrink. Eventually there will be a diminishing return and those last five points to close the gap will be much more difficult than those first twenty he erased.

 

I don't see the whole if Hillary "doesn't win but twenty points it's a loss" mentality in the number breakdowns. However, I don't have an emotional stake in either party's race, so what do I know I'm just enjoying the race

[papasmurfbell]

She carried huge leads like this 8 yrs ago until they vanished.

[thundercleetz]

She carried huge leads like this 8 yrs ago until they vanished.

You're right, but it's not the same situation as the Obama campaign.

[papasmurfbell]

In what way?

[cravnravn]

In what way?

Obama had the Oprah backing

[papasmurfbell]

In that Bernie has recieved more donations than Obama did I am not sure how much she helped.

[dc.]

I think the reality remains that if you look closely at the numbers on Hillary, there are HUGE disapproval/dislike ratings - almost as high as Trump has, and not only with the opposing party but within her own. There are plenty of people who just look at her and say "there's no way." But there is also a huge contingent who are leaning her way but have built-in reservations. Look at the splits on people who poll with "honesty/truthfulness/trustworthiness" as their most desireably quality in a candidate. She loses that demo like 90-10.

 

The longer the race goes on, the more people see Bernie, the more the "man, I just can't stand Hillary" factor becomes a problem. It's also a big part of why the DNC has tried so hard to protect her in this nomination process (see debate schedule).

 

The sad thing, this problem will only get bigger in a general election. Too many people will simply not vote instead of voting for Hillary - exactly the opposite of what we see with Trump, Obama, Sanders and more. The idea that Hillary is "more electable" had serious flaws in it. Look at the current polls on potential head-to-head match-ups. They may be flawed, but Hillary loses large to everyone but Trump - who she virtually ties when most people start to say they just won't vote. Bernie wins against everyone with a split against Rubio. And he wins big.

 

PS - I have no real dog in this fight. Not registered with either party and never have been. But I will say I find almost the entire GOP field to be disturbing bordering on lunacy... and I certainly fall into the "don't care one bit for Hillary" camp.

[papasmurfbell]

Say Trump wins the nom. Do you think he will use that she is bought and paid for? He will go further than Bernie has. Bernie has played nice with her bc I don't think he wants to be labeled a misogynist. There are areas I would hit her with hard but he doesn't. Trump will have no problem with that.

[dc.]

In a Hillary-Trump match-up, though, I think Hillary wins walking away.

 

Trump will be able to hit the "untrustworthy" button a bit... but he can't really win that game, especially not as well as almost any other candidate could. He's seen as slimy by most.

 

Meanwhile, Hillary is perhaps the best candidate to articulately take down Trump's policy proposals on everything from foreign policy to tax plans. While he'll shout about Benghazi and ramble without answering questions, like few other candidates I actually think Hillary will be able to say, "well, here's what he isn't saying and cannot say..." Trump's tax plan in particular is a disaster, but I don't think even Bernie is very good at explaining that. (The GOPers are even worse because their plans are equally dreadful from a debt perspective).

 

I think Trump has been able to play hardball this long because of the size of the field. I think he will struggle more and Rubio is looking better as the field narrows. Though, the longer Kasich stays in the more it hurts Rubio. Personally, I much prefer Kasich. But in the end, in a one-on-one match-up, Trump will eventually have to start actually talking policy and his "good great better best" routine will just wear thin.

 

Of course, I expected it to wear thing long before now. So I am not-so-secretly praying that it wears thin more than it has. But you can only say "I will replace this disaster with something awesome, awesome, wonderful..." so many times without answering what before people get fed up - especially in a general election. His promise to repeal Obamacare and replace it with something that will "lower your costs and give you better care"... there's no answer to that except,a ctually, for Bernie's plan. But damned if Trump would ever say it, at least in a GOP nomination.