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OutsideRzAcE

Wildcard Scenarios

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After being pissed off about the loss all day, i am finally starting to look towards next weeks game.

 

The way I look at it, with our only shot of the playoffs being via the 6th seed, we'd be on the road in January - so if we can't sweep the final two games, including Dallas this week on the road, we have no business going to the playoffs anyway.

 

That opinion aside, if we lose to Dallas this week, there is still hope as long as we handle business against Jax. We'd need help of course, and that would involve some losses in the east. This thread on the sun's board includes a decent breakdown of the Ravens' wildcard scenarios.

 

If the Ravens finish 10-6 here are the tiebreakers based on different scenarios:

 

1. Jets win AFCE, MIA/NE/BAL finish 10-6:

 

a. New England lost to Buffalo, beat Arizona:

-Miami beats New England on conference record.

-Baltimore beats Miami on head-to-head

-Baltimore wins #6 seed.

 

b. New England lost to Arizona, beat Buffalo

-New England beats Miami on division record.

-Baltimore beats New England on conference record (8-4 to 7-5).

-Baltimore wins #6 seed.

 

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2. Pats win AFCE, MIA/NYJ/BAL finish 10-6:

 

a. Miami loses to Jets in Week 17, Jets lose to Seattle in Week 16:

-Jets knock out Miami on head-to-head sweep

-BAL and NYJ tie on conference record

-BAL and NYJ tie on common games record

-Who wins Strength of Victory?

 

b. Jets lose to Miami in Week 17, Miami loses to KC in Week 16:

-Jets knock out Miami on common games record.

-Baltimore beats NYJ on conference record (8-4 to 7-5)

-Baltimore wins #6 seed.

 

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3. Dolphins win AFCE, NE/NYJ/BAL finish 10-6:

 

a. New England loses to Arizona, beats Buffalo:

-Jets beat NE on common games record

-Baltimore beats NYJ on conference record (8-4 to 7-5)

-Baltimore wins #6 seed.

 

b. New England loses to Buffalo, beats Arizona:

-Jets beat NE on division record (4-2 to 3-3)

-Baltimore beats NYJ on conference record (8-4 to 7-5)

-Baltimore wins #6 seed.

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With regards to the strength of victory tiebreaker with the Jets, here is how the scenario you laid out is looking (if the Jets beat Miami and lose to Seattle):

 

Those wins that the Jets would have at 10-6 would give them a strength of victory of 65-74-1, based on all team's records right now (including Miami, even though they would have been ensured another loss I did not include it).

 

The Ravens strength of victory is 51-86-3 under those same parameters. So under that scenario, the Jets would win the tiebreaker based on Strength of Victory if it gets that far.

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