Division Scenarios

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I've gone through the different permutations of what happens if the Ravens and Steelers end up tied atop the AFC North, and this is what results:

 

Ravens win out:

 

- Steelers lose to Carolina or the Jets --> Steelers win based on better division record

 

- Steelers lose to Bengals or Browns --> Division records tied. Common opponents record tied. Conference records tied. Strength of victory is the next tiebreaker. Wins against each other, Tampa, one each against Bengals/Browns, Buffalo, Miami, Carolina, and NY cancel each other out. Ravens other victories would be Houston, New Orleans, a 2nd against the Browns, and Denver (combined record at the moment: 21-27). Steelers would be Falcons, Raiders, Titans and either Browns or Bengals (combined records: 26-22 or 23-25). If those end up tied, better strength of schedule goes to Steelers, most likely (Raiders and Titans have better records than Texans and Broncos)

 

Ravens go 3-1:

 

- Ravens lose to Bengals or Browns:

 

- Steelers lose to any combination of two teams other than Browns and Bengals --> Steelers win on better division record

- Steelers lose to Bengals and Browns: See above, comes down to strength of victory again. Steelers have a bigger edge

 

- Ravens lose to Saints:

- Steelers lose to Jets and Panthers: Steelers win based on division record

- Steelers lose to (Browns or Bengals) and Jets --> Division record tied. Common opponents tied. Ravens win based on better conference record (9-3 vs. 8-4)

- Steelers lose to (Browns or Bengals) and Panthers --> Strength of victory, as discussed above. Steelers have a bigger edge

- Steelers lose to Browns and Bengals --> Ravens win on better division record.

 

- Ravens lose to Texans:

 

- Steelers lose to Jets and Panthers --> Steelers win based on division record

- Steelers lose to (Browns or Bengals) and (Jets or Panthers) --> Division records tied. Ravens win on better records vs. Common oppnents (Ravens 9-3 vs. Bengals X2, Browns X2, AFC East, NFC South, Steelers 8-4)

- Steelers lose to Browns and Bengals --> Ravens win based on division record

 

 

Ravens go 2-2:

 

- Ravens lose to Bengals and Browns: Steelers win based on division record

 

- Ravens lose to Texans and Saints:

 

- Steelers beat Panthers or Jets, lose to other teams: Ravens win on division record

- Steelers beat Bengals or Browns, lose to other teams: Ravens win on common games

 

- Ravens lose to (Bengals or Browns) and Texans:

 

- Steelers beat Bengals or Browns, lose to other teams: Steelers win on division record

- Steelers beat Jets or Panthers, lose to other teams: Ravens win on common games

 

- Ravens lose to (Bengals or Browns) and Saints:

 

- Steelers beat Bengals or Browns, lose to other teams: Steelers win on division record

- Steelers beat Jets, lose to other teams: Comes down to strength of victory

- Steelers beat Panthers, lose to other teams: Ravens win on conference record.

 

Ravens go 1-3:

 

- Ravens beat Saints or Texans: Steelers win based on division record

- Ravens beat Bengals or Browns: Ravens win on common games

[cravnravn]

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Updates to scenarios based on yesterday:

 

Ravens win out:

 

- Steelers lose to Carolina or the Jets --> Steelers win based on better division record

 

- Steelers lose to Browns --> Division records tied. Common opponents record tied. Conference records tied. Strength of victory is the next tiebreaker. Wins against each other, Tampa, one each against Bengals, Buffalo, Miami, Carolina, and NY cancel each other out. Ravens other victories would be Houston, New Orleans, a 2nd against the Browns, and Denver (combined record at the moment: 22-30). Steelers would be Falcons, Raiders, Titans and Bengals (combined record: 24-28). If those end up tied, better strength of schedule goes to Steelers, most likely (Raiders and Titans have better records than Texans and Broncos)

 

Ravens go 2-1:

 

- Ravens lose to Bengals or Browns--> Steelers win on better division record

 

- Ravens lose to Saints:

- Steelers lose to Jets and Panthers: Steelers win based on division record

- Steelers lose to Browns and Jets --> Division record tied. Common opponents tied. Ravens win based on better conference record (9-3 vs. 8-4)

- Steelers lose to Browns and Panthers --> Strength of victory, as discussed above. Steelers would probably win

 

Ravens go 1-2 --> Steelers win on division record.

 

Ravens go 0-3 --> Steelers win based on division record

 

 

In summary, in all likelihood, the Ravens need the Steelers to lose twice, including to the Browns. If the Ravens win out and the Steelers lose just to the Browns, the Ravens still have a chance at clinching the strength of victory tiebreaker, but Denver, New Orleans, Cleveland, and Houston would have to perform at least 3 games better than Atlanta, Oakland, Tennessee, and Cincinnati over the last three weeks. If they only perform 2 games better, than Denver and Houston would have to perform at least 4 games better than Oakland and Tennessee for the Ravens to win strength of schedule (3 games better would produce a tie there as well, and it would come down to some even more obscure tiebreakers (the next one being best combined ranking in conference in points for and points allowed).

 

The good news is that if the Steelers DO lose twice (assuming its to the Jets rather than the Panthers), than the Ravens would win the division even if they lose to the Saints.