2015 Offseason

[thundercleetz]

Sounds like the O's are close on a three-year deal with Gallardo. I don't like giving up the pick, but I like his fit as a ground ball pitcher with our infield defense.

[thundercleetz]

Now reports are saying the O's would be willing to part with their comp pick they received for Chen to sign Dexter Fowler. True lead off guy with good on-base skills, runs well and has some power.

 

However, he has exclusive played centerfield. His defensive metrics suggests he's miserable, however, scouting reports say he is capable. Maybe he moves to RF?

[thundercleetz]

I'm drooling over this lineup:

 

RF. Fowler (B)

3B. Machado ®

CF. Jones ®

1B. Davis (L)

DH. Trumbo ®

C. Wieters (B)

2B. Schoop ®

LF. Kim (L)

SS. Hardy ®

[varaven45]

Tcleetz, agreed but still need some SP. Even with this Gellato dude, we will likely be in lots of 8-7, 7-6 games. We may have that anyway.

[thundercleetz]

Tcleetz, agreed but still need some SP. Even with this Gellato dude, we will likely be in lots of 8-7, 7-6 games. We may have that anyway.

It all comes down to the progress the young arms can make. Gausman is close to breaking out. Can he be a legit 1/2? Bundy has to be on the 40 man roster. It's a make or break year for him. How about Hunter Harvey? Can he stay healthy? If so he's a stud.

 

Can Tillman return to All Star form? Can Ubaldo pitch consistently over an entire season? Vance Worley is an interesting rebound candidate.

 

Lots of questions but the potential is there.

 

Positively our lineup will be incredible and has potential to be even better. Schoop, Hardy and Wieters all 100%. Schoop showed All Star potential in an injury short season.

 

Team defense and the bullpen will be among tops in the league. We have a lot of good going for us if the starting pitching can hold its weight.

[varaven45]

TCleetz, I hear you on the hitting, defense and bullpen - all strengths. To be successful, we will be winning a lot high scoring games, esp at the Yards !

[GrubberRaven]

We're placing our entire starting/pitching roster on 'potential'...scary

[thundercleetz]

According to ESPN we are expected sign both Gallardo and Fowler. I am extremely excited for the Fowler signing. We have not had a legitimate lead off guy since before Brian Roberts caught the injury bug. Fowler is a great fit for our lineup. We are going to score some serious runs this season!

[dc.]

My worry with Fowler: fading numbers to so extent since leaving Colorado (oddly more power but worse metrics on contact, etc) and he plays sorry D.

 

Not opposed, but not thrilled- depends on cost. Also think it will eat into Rickerds time playing, but he might need that adjustment.

 

Gallardo I'm still torn on, but we need the arm this year. It gives us a chance.

[thundercleetz]

Where are you seeing the offensive decline? The 2012 year was an outlier OPS wise, but his oWAR numbers have been very consistent. Had a 3.5 oWAR last season, 3.9 the season before and 3.8 during his career 2012 year.

 

Set a career high in walks but also a career high in SOs (although SO rate was below 2012 level and in line with his career numbers). Walk rate was down a percentage point from the past few years. Seems like he took more pitches than usual. Makes sense batting lead off in that powerful Cubs lineup, especially with Maddon's hitting philosophy as manager.

 

ISO power was up close to his 2012 career high. The difference appears to be BAIP was significantly down. Contact rate was in line with career numbers, so his reason for a lower average, and OBP to an extent, could be some degree of luck (or maybe better defensive adjustments against him?).

 

As far as his defense. A lot of his criticisms are similar to AJ. Plays too shallow, his zone ratings and other advanced metrics suggests he's terrible. The "eye test" says he's athletic and can cover ground and make plays other players cannot. At least Jones makes the plays he's supposed to so his WAR isn't adversely affected. Fowler supposedly plays even more shallow in center and doesn't make all the plays he's supposed to, so his dWAR is bad.

 

Fowler doesn't have Jones's arm, but a move to RF with less ground to cover might help Fowler.

[dc.]

His career highs last year have to be put into context of actually staying healthy.

 

Decline was in splits, I had forgotten that before. Splits against lefties (I think) are tanking and widening his gap. I'm worried he's platooning himself...

[thundercleetz]

You're right, last three years splits against RHP are poor. He appears to hit lefties excellent. Splits have been consistent from 2013-2015. Prior to 2013 his splits were even. Kind of weird how he instantly dropped off against RHP in 2013. However, I will say he has pronounced home/away splits when he played for the Rockies. Might have something to do with it. I'm sure he'd get a lot of doubles off the RF scoreboard in Camden!

[thundercleetz]

The other thing is if the 2011-2012 version of Dexter Fowler was a free agent this offseason he'd be in line for a $100M+ contract and not the two-three year deal we are looking to sign him for. The 2013-2015 version is still a very good player. In fact, Fowler's 2014 season was better than his career 2012 season from an oWAR perspective, even with the pronounced LHP/RHP splits. 2014 is even more impressive considering he played in less games in 2014 than 2012, as you mentioned.

 

I can't find any evidence of decline since 2013 and the advanced metrics aren't too different from 2012 outside of the LHP/RHP splits.

[thundercleetz]

Gallardo is official: 3-years, $35M, fourth year club option for $13M.

 

Not thrilled about the move but our window to win is now. Angelos is not getting any younger, Buck wants to win now, and there are no guarantees he would want to go through another rebuild at this point in his career. I could see Buck retiring if he wins a WS. He could have an easy career as a TV analyst or simply retire to Texas.

 

There are no guarantees we'll be able to keep Machado. This is a move we had to make.

 

We are looking at an extensive rebuild in a few years so in that context the draft pick is minimal. Gallardo at least has a ground ball pitching style that fits well with our infield defense. Have to give credit to Angelos for taking on this sort of payroll.

[thundercleetz]

A couple of things concern me about Gallardo: the increasing line drive rate and he had a terrible second half.

 

On the flip side both Gallardo and Jiminez were front line pitchers in the first half of 2015. Both guys fell apart in the second half. If both guys can out like they did in the first half last season, we will be very good.

[dc.]

If.

 

;)

[Spen]

If.

;)

Hey, it's spring. Hope springs eternal and all that.

[thundercleetz]

Per Olney on Twitter: Fowler is official. Three-year deal

[dc.]

I'll take it.

 

Fowler

Machado

Davis

Jones

Trumbo

Wieters

Kim

Schoop

Hardy

 

I could see moving Kim up to #2 if he pans out well and then just having a destructive 1-6.

[Spen]

Things are not perfect but you can't say the team didn't attempt to get better this off-season.

[dc.]

On first glance, the Kim move is an A+. Fowler and Gallardo are B-B+ in my mind... cheap but not quite the perfect upgrades we'd have imagined.

 

The real question is... is it enough given what others in the division have done?

 

That said, I just can't see the Red Sox lugging Hanley and Pablo through to anything worth anything...

[dc.]

Other shoe:

 

Gallardo deal on hold; physical problems. O's docs not convinced he can go three years. Might fall through of be renegotiated.

 

Read good analysis: O's can ask for less, going he freaks and signs, or he can walk and wait for a team to have an injury next week in camp.

 

Last this happened was Balfour two years ago, O's docs were right and Balfour panned.

[Spen]

Other shoe:

Gallardo deal on hold; physical problems. O's docs not convinced he can go three years. Might fall through of be renegotiated.

Read good analysis: O's can ask for less, going he freaks and signs, or he can walk and wait for a team to have an injury next week in camp.

Last this happened was Balfour two years ago, O's docs were right and Balfour panned.

Supposed to be done, two years with an option.

 

When this was going on I heard people bring up Balfour like it reflected bad on the Orioles. In fact the Orioles doctors have often been right.

http://www.masnsports.com/school-of-roch/2016/02/lets-get-physical-with-orioles.html

[dc.]

Well, I think there was a time it did really reflect poorly on us when our rep was also about avoiding pay day...

 

Balfour turned out right for us, though it was less his durability and more his own failures. But I don't think it looks as bad as it once could have, even if we were right

[thundercleetz]

Can't wait for baseball season to start!