Nick looks like he is gone

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http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/12/markakis-no-longer-likely-to-re-sign-with-orioles.html

 

 

Markakis No Longer Likely To Re-Sign With Orioles

By Jeff Todd [December 1, 2014 at 9:33pm CST]

The Orioles now appear to have less than an even shot of re-signing outfielder Nick Markakis, Dan Connolly of the Baltimore Sun reports. No progress has been made since negotiations stalled, re-opened, and quieted again, Connolly writes.

One possible hold-up, per Connolly, is the length of the deal. Though the sides were operating on the premise of a four-year term in the early run of negotiations, now there are rumblings from the team side that it is not comfortable with that length.

With Baltimore fading somewhat, other teams have entered the picture more firmly. Connolly says that the long-time Bird is now setting his sights toward finding a new landing spot at the upcoming Winter Meetings. The Giants and Blue Jays are among the clubs that have been noted as potential alternatives for Markakis.

I think the O's will be better for him leaving.

[GrubberRaven]

There'sa guy in the minors with some pop...name escapes me. Markakis still brings defense to the table...frustrating...

[cravnravn]

Cakes does have a cannon for an arm

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The problem is he is getting slower. That canon is useless if it takes him 2 weeks to get to the ball.

[thundercleetz]

Let Markakis walk. He's good but not worth $10-12M over the next four years. He has a declining skill set. While his arm is good his range is declining. He's benefitted playing in a small right field in Camden. We have Dariel Alvarez, a Cuban free agent signee, who did well in AA/AAA who has a great arm from right field. No am sure we can get by with a platoon with Alvarez and someone else.

[dc.]

While I'm torn on Markakis, in not torn in this: platoon should be a word that makes every O's fan run for cover after the pathetic passions we lived through for a decade at almost every major position.

[GrubberRaven]

Such bullshit....

[thundercleetz]

While I'm torn on Markakis, in not torn in this: platoon should be a word that makes every O's fan run for cover after the pathetic passions we lived through for a decade at almost every major position.

If we had sufficient depth elsewhere I'd disagree with you. Statistically it shouldn't be hard at all to replace Markakis's production in RF, whether it be a fulltime bargain player or a platoon. However, considering we are already platooning guys at LF, 2B, possibly 1B and now RF, I agree with your analysis.

 

Duquette has a lot of work to do. However, I have no doubt he is up to the task. Outside of the Arrieta trade, he has hit on every move.

 

Emotionally, I am sad to see Markakis go. He could have easily been a lifelong Oriole who was up there with all the Orioles greats for career hits. In the long term considering his declining skill set and our future payroll considerations, this is the right move.

 

I will say Atlanta is probably one of the better fits for Markakis. I wouldn't be surprised to see him put up better stats there for the next season or two. I didn't see him getting any better in Baltimore.

 

Here is an excellent analysis article supporting we made the right move:

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/what-are-we-missing-about-nick-markakis/

[dc.]

If you are looking for production with a bat, I think platoons are pretty much always a bust. If you're looking for platoons because you don't need the bat, then who cares - aka, the O's with catcher last year. We didn't need a bat, we just needed some good arms and some good game-calling.

 

But the history platooning players - at least in this organization - for the purposes of "maximizing production" has been horrendous. The reality is, if a player is good enough to really give you that production level (even from one side of the plate), they wouldn't be available or willing to play in half the games. The instances where platoons really meant "equaling the production of the last guy" are so few and far between.

 

As for Nick - do I think he was worth 44m? Not really. But if we were offering around 40m for the same time period... then I'm a bit annoyed we're haggling over 1m per year. With what great back-up plan?

 

As for fangraphs - I buy the bat arguments (though I think he's valuable for seeing pitches, reading pitches and reporting well to his teammates on that), but I never really buy the defensive metrics. The metrics on D in baseball are so bad compared to those on offense. With an outfielder, we're judging his arm strength and accuracy on just how many throws in a season (as in how many really, truly meaningful throws?). And then we also have to consider how many other factors on a throw, including simply how well a ball gets to a player, etc etc. What about park factors on defensive metrics - how many balls does Markakis not get to for his range factor because of the short (tall) fence in OPACY's right field? (Also, they say his 18th best contact rate is not "elite" ... to my knowledge, that means there is 1 player on half the teams in the league better than him. That seems nearly elite).

 

In the end, I am not devastated, but I am a bit down on it. I am sad we (seemingly) were just pinched out on a fan and clubhouse favorite. And I'm more concerned we're about to go big on Melky Cabrera...

 

Meanwhile - FanGraphs also said Chase Headley was the best of the bats out there. It may well be true, but they said it like we should like that and be impressed with him.

[GrubberRaven]

If we sign Michael Morse as his replacement I may shit myself.

 

Isn't there a rookie in the minors lighting it up?

[varaven45]

Crappy organizational move. His absence this coming season may not be obvious or apparent but his leadership on the field and in the clubhouse will be sorely missed and won't be be replaced. We getting rid of the entire pitching staff next ?

[cravnravn]

I just don't see ripping apart a team that was so close,at we as fans welcoming back Chris Davis with open arms? Replacing Cruz bat and Cakes defense is going to be tough to do.

[dc.]

I just don't see ripping apart a team that was so close,at we as fans welcoming back Chris Davis with open arms? Replacing Cruz bat and Cakes defense is going to be tough to do.

 

It's about $$$. Spend it now (on 4 years for Cruz or 4 for Markakis) and you can't spend it later when they are declining... It's tough to swallow, but there's no perfect answer.

[GrubberRaven]

Braves came out of the blue and from everything I've heard, it's closer to Nick and his wife's families. Can't blame him. He does his job with 100% commitment, he's just going to do it elsewhere.

 

It sucks...so few players to really cheer for these days. He was a good one.

 

I still think the O's are shitting the bed though.

[varaven45]

Braves came out of the blue and from everything I've heard, it's closer to Nick and his wife's families. Can't blame him. He does his job with 100% commitment, he's just going to do it elsewhere.

 

It sucks...so few players to really cheer for these days. He was a good one.

 

I still think the O's are shitting the bed though.

 

Well put, especially on last remark.

[GrubberRaven]

I'm not expecting the Orioles to break the bank and sign what stars that may be out there, but dammit, act like you have a plan.

[varaven45]

I don't think they do. It appears we lucked out last year w/the Cruz signing and are now acquiescing to our normal PA protocol - letting the good guys who play like an O (Markakis) go then signing the leftovers (Morse).

As much as I detest the Bosox and their spending, I at least respect their pursuit of FA talent and commitment to winning.

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Crappy organizational move. His absence this coming season may not be obvious or apparent but his leadership on the field and in the clubhouse will be sorely missed and won't be be replaced. We getting rid of the entire pitching staff next ?

It is not about now but in the latter yrs of the deal.

 

 

I just don't see ripping apart a team that was so close,at we as fans welcoming back Chris Davis with open arms? Replacing Cruz bat and Cakes defense is going to be tough to do.

If they are stuck in bad long term deals they could get pushed into the dregs of the league.

 

 

 

It's about $$$. Spend it now (on 4 years for Cruz or 4 for Markakis) and you can't spend it later when they are declining... It's tough to swallow, but there's no perfect answer.

Exactly.

 

 

I'm not expecting the Orioles to break the bank and sign what stars that may be out there, but dammit, act like you have a plan.

I looked at a study that showed most of these FA deals are bad moves.

[thundercleetz]

Keith Law hates the deal too:

 

http://m.espn.go.com/general/blogs/blogpost?blogname=keith-law&id=3007&src=desktop&rand=ref~%7B%22ref%22%3A%22https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com%2F%22%7D

[thundercleetz]

To those stating this reflects on the Orioles desire for winning I whole heartedly disagree. Our payroll has been in the top half of the league since Buck has been manager and is sure to be over $100 million this season.

 

Duquette has been near perfect as GM and has given us no reason to doubt his plan. We were screaming the same thing last offseason as we stayed quiet for the majority of free agency. Duquette makes a few smaller moves and we are in the ALCS. We have to trust Duquette's plan.

[dc.]

If Angelos was running the show, Markakis would be here. He loved Nick. Would have exercised the option, probably, or made a big offer before Nick hit the market.

 

This is Dan planning longer term.

 

Was at first excited to hear our names in the Matt Kemp talks, but obviously seems like it won't happen. They want one of our biggest names in the minors. But seems like someone will get him for a bit less than his current contract - and even his current contract is pretty decent given what some others (like Nick) have been getting.

[thundercleetz]

No thanks on Kemp, with that contract he is injurred way too much and plays poor defense.

 

What about taking a flyer on Colby Rasmus? No draft pick required. Had a bad 2014 (hamstring problem), but posted a 4.8 WAR in 2013 in only 119 games. Also had a 3.5 WAR in 2010 for STL. I remember Rasmus was untouchable when the Cardinals were interested in trading for Bedard back in 2008. He will be only 28-years old for most of next season. Obvious talent. Could be a classic Duquette buy-low, high-reward type of signing.

 

Another cheaper option is Norichika Aoki. High OBP (career .353). Numbers were down a little in KC's pitcher friendly park, but he posted WARs of 3.3 and 3.0 in Milwaukee in 2012 and 2013, respectfully. He would immediately be our leadoff hitter. Once again no draft pick required.

 

Heck, we could get them both for a lot cheaper than re-signing Nick Markakis. Either one of these guys could easily replace Markakis's production, and possibly give us more.

[dc.]

I would be "fine" with Aoki or Rasmus, though neither inspires me. They would have to be part of some larger gap-fills, because we're seeing way too many holes suddenly.

 

As for Kemp, I disagree. He was hurt in 2012 and 2013, but finally got healthy last year and after a few months had a stellar second half. He is an MVP bat when he is healthy. And yes, expensive, but in line with others around his numbers. Actually, I would argue his numbers are better than the likes of someone like Hanley Ramirez, who just got more money. And you could argue Hanley is a SS, but sounds like the Sox are moving him to OF anyway.

 

Didn't think Kemp was that bad defensively - maybe not great, but not bad. Nick and Adam Jones don't light up the metrics on D, either...

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Ken Rosenthal @Ken_Rosenthal · 27m 27 minutes ago

Sources: Markakis leaning toward surgery to repair bulging disc in neck. Recovery time up to 12 weeks. #Braves knew of possibility.

Def a good thing they let him walk.

[GrubberRaven]

The plot thickens!