Nick looks like he is gone

[thundercleetz]

I would be "fine" with Aoki or Rasmus, though neither inspires me. They would have to be part of some larger gap-fills, because we're seeing way too many holes suddenly.

 

As for Kemp, I disagree. He was hurt in 2012 and 2013, but finally got healthy last year and after a few months had a stellar second half. He is an MVP bat when he is healthy. And yes, expensive, but in line with others around his numbers. Actually, I would argue his numbers are better than the likes of someone like Hanley Ramirez, who just got more money. And you could argue Hanley is a SS, but sounds like the Sox are moving him to OF anyway.

 

Didn't think Kemp was that bad defensively - maybe not great, but not bad. Nick and Adam Jones don't light up the metrics on D, either...

I cannot completely explain the metrics, but from what I know Markakis and Jones typically rate poorly in the range metrics, which can be arguable for the reasons you mentioned. However, both guys usually far excellent in making the routine plays, which I believe is calculated into the WAR stat. Kemp batted a .852 OPS and had a WAR of only 1.1 in 150 games. However, he had an OWAR of 3.8 (defense not included in the stat). That means his defense was terrible no matter how you look at it.

 

For reference Markakis had a WAR of 2.1 with only a .728 OPS. Kemp can hit but he is a realistic DH candidate in a couple of seasons. Immediately his value is probably maximized as a part-time outfielder. Buck did a great job of managing Cruz in LF vs. DH and would probably have to do the same with Kemp.

[dc.]

Miller is going to NY. Four years, 9m per year guaranteed. Might be more with incentives.

 

Again, it sucks but can't complain too much. Can't drop 10% of our salary base on a reliever, even a closer in my mind... But damn.

 

Time to start something, Dan.

[thundercleetz]

Miller is going to NY. Four years, 9m per year guaranteed. Might be more with incentives.

 

Again, it sucks but can't complain too much. Can't drop 10% of our salary base on a reliever, even a closer in my mind... But damn.

 

Time to start something, Dan.

I knew we were losing Miller but losing him within the division is even worse. I was hoping Houston would overpay for him.

[cravnravn]

Now I'm pissed off

Wtf Angelo's open the fucking wallet, Miller was a keeper

[dc.]

Nearly 40m for a set up man? That would be more than 3x per year what Darren O'Day made last year (yea and 2x what O'DayO'Day will make this year).

 

Is Miller worth two of the next best relievers in the league? Is he worth four or five other solid relievers? That's an entire bullpen.

 

It's nearly Markakis' contract, which may be the biggest number an outfielder gets this year. Is a reliever worth an outfielders salary? A top outfielders salary?

[varaven45]

Now I'm pissed off

Wtf Angelo's open the fucking wallet, Miller was a keeper

Crav, he"lł open the wallet after all the good players are taken, then give Duquette free reins to sign whoever he wants. Buck's going to have mangage his arse off this year.

[Spen]

I'm OK with letting everyone go. I think they were the right moves. I'll miss Nick though.

[thundercleetz]

Everyone needs to relax. Duquette knows what he's doing. We will have a very good team next season.

 

IMO the biggest move in the division was the Jays getting Donaldson. He's going to be a tear in that stadium. Possibly an MVP candidate right behind Cabrera and Trout.

[cravnravn]

Nearly 40m for a set up man? That would be more than 3x per year what Darren O'Day made last year (yea and 2x what O'DayO'Day will make this year).

Is Miller worth two of the next best relievers in the league? Is he worth four or five other solid relievers? That's an entire bullpen.

It's nearly Markakis' contract, which may be the biggest number an outfielder gets this year. Is a reliever worth an outfielders salary? A top outfielders salary?

Defense starts with pitching we could of had two of the best relief/set up men in the game today, Miller was young. My Boston fans were in disbelief when they traded miller to the Os in august, now they are angry as heck as we let him walk away to the Yankee's. I see nicks numbers were falling have no problem of them letting him go, Cruz I'd would of loved to have kept, monster numbers last year will be hard to replace.

 

Not sold on Manny and his knees

Davis? Guess the next time its a season suspension for him,

Weitz, tommy john surgery might be OK for a pitcher that pitches once a week,but how's it going to be for a everyday player?

[dc.]

Defense starts with pitching we could of had two of the best relief/set up men in the game today, Miller was young. My Boston fans were in disbelief when they traded miller to the Os in august, now they are angry as heck as we let him walk away to the Yankee's. I see nicks numbers were falling have no problem of them letting him go, Cruz I'd would of loved to have kept, monster numbers last year will be hard to replace.

 

Not sold on Manny and his knees

Davis? Guess the next time its a season suspension for him,

Weitz, tommy john surgery might be OK for a pitcher that pitches once a week,but how's it going to be for a everyday player?

Yes, two great set up men. But at what cost? Can't sign anyone like Cruz (this year or in the future) if your bullpen is getting paid the same as your #3 hitter.

[dc.]

Everyone needs to relax. Duquette knows what he's doing. We will have a very good team next season.

 

IMO the biggest move in the division was the Jays getting Donaldson. He's going to be a tear in that stadium. Possibly an MVP candidate right behind Cabrera and Trout.

Except for in June, July and August, when he might hit five homers a month, but hell also hit 210.

 

Donaldson had now played two complete seasons. In both, he tore through April and May but by the end of May was hitting so poorly for contact that he was unrecognizable... I am not sold on his hype. Go look at his splits on both years. Atrocious for most of mid season. And while I'm curious how much the big park in Oakland helped his numbers on anything that wasn't a hr...

 

All that said, Batista-encarnacion-donaldson is a huge power surge regardless. Still can't believe what the Jays gave up though. Donaldson is 30. They have up 3 hot prospects under 24, including some with serious experience...

[papasmurfbell]

It is called patience. Dan got Cruz late last yr. Let the process work.

[cravnravn]

Yes, two great set up men. But at what cost? Can't sign anyone like Cruz (this year or in the future) if your bullpen is getting paid the same as your #3 hitter.

 

You don't get it we lost Cruz we lost Cakes, if I'm owner I make dam sure I get Miller signed. We lost a hell of a lot of offensive power wayyyyyyy before we lost Miller.

[papasmurfbell]

And it is not worth overpaying for any part.

[cravnravn]

And it is not worth overpaying for any part.

Our payroll is 50% of NY and Boston, you want to compete you better spend a little,

[papasmurfbell]

NY keeps spending like crazy and the players keep blowing up in theri faces. Tex, Aroid, and so many more. Let them spend like crazy. It wont help. I have seen the anylitics and these expensive FA's are busts more than they are good.

[cravnravn]

Aroid didn't blow up in their face, Aroids actions blew up in his face and its just unfortunate for NY that they have to pay him, and have no escape clause.

 

I feel the Os are putting too much stock into our wounded warriors, and I do not want .190 Chris Davis on this club.

[papasmurfbell]

Then paying him threw the nose after he opted out has been a total disaster. They should have let him walk. They really bid against themselves for him just like the Rangers did.

[dc.]

ARod certainly hurt them. Even without the suspension, he was in make decline both in skills and durability.

 

I was not trying to connect Miller to Markakis and Cruz, but Papa is right. We could have over spent on Miller... And when the right bat arrived, we'd have not had the money for him... So what do you do?

 

As for spending... The Sox and Yankees have or doesn't us a ton the last three years, and yet we've got the better records to show for it overall.

[cravnravn]

And what we just loss makes us a sub 500 team, and as far as A rod goes he's been in the league 20 years and only played 162 games 5 times in his career, heck I expect him to be fresh this year

[dc.]

Fresh, fine (though I disagree) But he'll hit 240, ground into plenty of double plays... All worth 30m of course.

 

We've lost a lot. No one is happy about that. But I can't pay 9m for a set up man. I can't pay 11m for a 390slg in rf who is about to have neck surgery (third surgery in the years?). I can't pay 4 years of tens of millions for a 31+ dh who may or may not hit 30 hr ever again.

 

Will that hurt this year? It well might.

But this year isn't the end all...

[cravnravn]

We just went through 15 years of misery, we get 3 of a little bit of success and I feel we just went back into 1998 all over again

[dc.]

We just went through 15 years of misery, we get 3 of a little bit of success and I feel we just went back into 1998 all over again

 

Don't entirely disagree, but here's what's different. In 1998, we were shelling out buck after buck - in bad form - to try to hang on to something that couldn't be held on to. We were holding bad contracts, extending them.

 

This year, we're doing the opposite. i don't think we're giving up on 2015 by any means, but I don't think we're selling the farm on 2016-2020 just for one more year - we were certainly doing that 1998-2000.

 

Just to prove it - in 1998, we had the league's highest payroll at $71m... more than $6m more than the Yankees (nearly 10% more than the next best). What did it buy us? 79 wins, 13 more losing seasons to follow... Here's the biggest give away... not a single regular starter in that line-up was under 30. Our average age on all players was 33 (5-6 years past prime by today's standards!) Mike Mussina was 29 and the only other real regular was Sidney Ponson in his rookie year, at 21.

 

Eric Davis, Harold Baines and Cal Ripken were all over 37. Brady Anderson, Lenny Webster, Chris Hoiles, Rafael Palmeiro, BJ Surhoff were all 33-34. Hell , that was the year we signed Joe Carter - 38! That's the definition of trying to hold on to something that simply doesn't exist anymore.

 

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BAL/1998.shtml

 

We don't want to be that next year. Markakis might have only been 30-31, but his best years were 3-4 years ago. Nelson Cruz will be 35 next year. You don't invest in that. Last year, Nelson Cruz and JJ Hardy were the only Orioles over 30 of our regular start 9. Our average age as a team was 28 - dead on prime years. Our oldest starting pitchers were Ubaldo (ugh) and Gonzalez, both just 30. With a few of the "older" guys going we can drop that age further and invest in the future.

 

It sucks. I feel your pain. But it can't only be about 2015. And Nelson Cruz can't be bought after his best consumed by date...

[thundercleetz]

Our payroll is 50% of NY and Boston, you want to compete you better spend a little,

I don't think you get it. We've spent plenty considering our market. We were the 15th highest payroll at over $107M. Spots 11-15 were all close. I'd say we are just fine salary wise. I'd imagine we'll be ranked higher next season.

 

Miller is by far our worst loss. Markakis and Cruz I could care less about. However, $9M a year on a setup man is too much.

[cravnravn]

I don't think you get it. We've spent plenty considering our market. We were the 15th highest payroll at over $107M. Spots 11-15 were all close. I'd say we are just fine salary wise. I'd imagine we'll be ranked higher next season.

Miller is by far our worst loss. Markakis and Cruz I could care less about. However, $9M a year on a setup man is too much.

Oh I get it, never said we had to be up there with the yanks or sox. But are we spending wisely? I mean our big money guys are 1 cough drop away from a years suspension, just had tommy John surgery, and I hope Manny is not looking for a brinks truck, caus he shouldn't get it here, not with those knees. O'Day and JJ are basically the only players earning their checks.

 

Last 3 years have Ben fun as a fan, I want to see that continue, I want to see the Yards packed on game days, I don't want to see a park that looks like the Rays park on game day.