Is It Really This Bad?

[papasmurfbell]

http://www.cnn.com/election/primaries/polls/nh/dem

 

 

party id

2222 total respondents

key

1st

clinton

o'malley

sanders

other/no answer

58%democrats

2%republicans

40%independents

48%

n/a

25%

0%

n/a

0%

52%

n/a

73%

n/a

n/a

2%

 

 

http://www.cnn.com/election/primaries/polls/mi/dem

party id

1601 total respondents

key

1st

clinton

sanders

uncommitted

69%democrats

4%republicans

27%independents

58%

n/a

28%

40%

n/a

71%

2%

n/a

1%

[dc.]

That's only New Hampshire though?

 

And again, the point was that even if people prefer one or the other, 75% are happy with either... (Not the same 75%). So the claim that Hillary isn't motivating her base is not really true.

[dc.]

Sorry, NH and Michigan. Two states Bernie win, of course. Point remains above.

 

And reminder: you're not taking to a HRC supportee

[papasmurfbell]

THat is two open primaries. He is winning the open primaries with the independent vote. It so overwhelmingly goes his way it counters Hillary taking the dyed in the wool dems.

[dc.]

Once again, simple question is: would Dems stay home for Hillary? Apparently no more than for Bernie.

 

Now, other work to be done? Sure. But same with any GOPer.

 

And choosing Bernie now is not the same as not choosing Hillary later. The prior poll was about satisfaction, not preference.

[papasmurfbell]

Some would. But I think the bigger question is would independents stay home? Also the young vote that is flooding to Bernie has a single dong in the fight. I don't see them wasting their time if BErnie isn't there.

[Spen]

LOL - Tell that to the 1/3 of all the Jews he slaughtered in Europe plus

the many other etnic groups.

 

I'm sure you were making a tongue in cheek statement for laughs.

Really? How perceptive of you.

[papasmurfbell]

LOL - Tell that to the 1/3 of all the Jews he slaughtered in Europe plus

the many other etnic groups.

 

I'm sure you were making a tongue in cheek statement for laughs.

There is a reason why Mel Brooks has made a chunk of his career of making fun of Hitler.

[Spen]

Like all the dem socialist state in Europe... With lower debt, longer life span, and happier people. But gee, those taxes are just strangling... Yet somehow with all those taxes they still are able to go on more vacation and live on one salary more easily than in the US.

Instead of trying to improve the US falling rankings on a lot of the international lists we just argue the way the lists were tallied.

The only thing I think the US is clearly great at is telling everyone how great we are.

[papasmurfbell]

For the Game of Thrones fans:

 

That is damned funny.

[TBird]

Really? How perceptive of you.

 

LOL - Well, with your usual grumpiness and not seeing your facial and body

 

language I was just calling it out to be sure.

[TBird]

Like all the dem socialist state in Europe... With lower debt, longer life span, and happier people. But gee, those taxes are just strangling... Yet somehow with all those taxes they still are able to go on more vacation and live on one salary more easily than in the US.

China went off socialism and is now capitalistic and has the fastest rising economy quickly approaching ours while US went off capitalism and is socialistic. Socialism destroyed the Soviet Union and people in Russia are still starving while Europe begins to come off of socialism.

 

China also owns about 1/3 of our $17T debt. How will we be able to fight them when they can call our debt in. Half of that $17T debt comes from

socialstic programs like medicare and social security which is why they call it social security = socialism.

[papasmurfbell]

The congress has been stealing from SS for a long time. It needs tweeks to make it solvent for the future.

[papasmurfbell]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KxVbuO7xM4g

[TBird]

The delegates are skewed a bit by the winner takes all system in some places, like Florida.

 

His 46% aligns perfectly with the poll I cited. He's never really cracked that level in the primaries, as well. Cruz has.

 

And primary voters are extra motivated. So it's not telling us who is staying home

And in open primaries he may be getting an independent bump. The point is simply, he has work to do in his own party.

 

Lastly, I disagree that if he has a plurality of votes he should automatically get it. In fact, I think the whole system, even at the National level, is off. We should have run offs and require majorities to get elected or become more parliamentary and require coalition building.

Great post and I'm sure he is getting those independents you mentioned. I'm independent in MD but will vote Libertrarian again, no more

RINOS for me but in the end the independents will make the difference. McCain got none while Mitt picked up a lot more and a lot more of

the Chrisitan vote which made the election a lot closer the second time. Michelle said it's going to be a lot closer this time folks.

 

Throw in more independents and Christian votes and Trump will win by a land slide.

 

We're for immigration by the way, just legal immigration.

[TBird]

The congress has been stealing from SS for a long time. It needs tweeks to make it solvent for the future.

And when certain Republicans like Ryan try to stop it they get crucified by the DEMs and with a

sitting DEM in the WH they shut down the govt while Ryan gets the blame for that and they give

up and give them what they want. With $17TT debt and DEMs wanted to raise the ceiling for more

debt, that's exactly what happened.

 

You don't hear much about lowering the debt any more.

[dc.]

China went off socialism and is now capitalistic and has the fastest rising economy quickly approaching ours while US went off capitalism and is socialistic. Socialism destroyed the Soviet Union and people in Russia are still starving while Europe begins to come off of socialism.

 

China also owns about 1/3 of our $17T debt. How will we be able to fight them when they can call our debt in. Half of that $17T debt comes from

socialstic programs like medicare and social security which is why they call it social security = socialism.

 

Let's try to take out all four falsehoods in this quickly.

 

1. Neither China nor Russia were ever socialist. They were communist. China is now a state-driven/state-run capitalism. They are growing because of their state intervention (your friend, Donald, likes to point this out). They are not a true capitalist society yet. They are also growing so quickly in large part because their economy had been so small for so long. When your economy gets bigger, it's hard to grow as quickly. Either way, no one is advocating for communism. Socialism is different.

2. If you are touting China's advances as a "capitalist" nation - please look at how that capitalism is fairing for their average citizen.

3. In 2015, China held $1.3T of our debt - that's less than 10% of our gross debt which is now closer to $19T. They sold most of it off recently because their economy is so weak and they have to use that foreign held debt to prop it up. They also cannot just "call in" their debt because that's not really how debt works - your bank cannot just ask you to pay your mortgage off in full one day because they don't like the loan anymore. Let's say it this way, if anyone were worried about debt in the real world, they wouldn't still be lending to us at record low interest rates.

4. The debt does NOT come from Medicare and Social Security. About 1/3 of the debt is owed TO those programs because we took it out to pay for other programs. Those programs are currently fully funded by your FICA taxes.

 

Meanwhile - way not to respond to the actual question. Despite having a higher GDP and being "better" - why is our awesome capitalist nation NOT able to produce students as bright or people who live as long as all those dreaded socialist nations in western europe? Because we're not really socialist at all right now. Social Security and Medicare are great programs, but they are the weakest of their kind in the free world.

[dc.]

And when certain Republicans like Ryan try to stop it they get crucified by the DEMs and with a

sitting DEM in the WH they shut down the govt while Ryan gets the blame for that and they give

up and give them what they want. With $17TT debt and DEMs wanted to raise the ceiling for more

debt, that's exactly what happened.

 

You don't hear much about lowering the debt any more.

 

More falsehoods to dispel here... Dems never shut down the gov't. That was largely Ted Cruz, not Ryan as well, and it was because he was trying to attach a "defund Obamacare" provision to a budget.

 

No one has really gotten what they've wanted recently. Ryan wants huge tax cuts (how do those help the debt again?) and if you look at his spending cuts, they're pretty scary, but that's just me. But even his budget doesn't ever come close to actually balancing itself.

 

Lastly, the debt ceiling pays for debt already created - not for new debt. It's a silly system and we shouldn't even really need a "debt limit" but... think of it this way. You write yourself a budget for the month. The budget says you are going to earn $100, spend $200... so there's $100 deficit there. But you wrote it and it's kind of in stone, you can't change it now because you've promised that $200 out to people in advance. The debt ceiling is your credit card limit. If you need an extra $100 in limit, you can't say "no" after you've already given the money out. You have to say yes.

 

Congress - both Ds and Rs - have been passing budgets with insane deficits for decades. The debt limit says "we will pay for what we created." You can't say no after the fact.

 

Other fun facts... our debt ballooned early in the Obama administration. That's not great of course. But several TRILLION of that was literally just paying for the recession. We lost about half a trillion per year in tax revenue the first two years of the recession. Unless you're going to cut spending hugely in that moment - horrible idea, people need their social security and unemployment in that moment more than ever - that's going to create in debt. A lot of it.

 

Finally - for being so debt conscious, you know whose tax plan has the worst impact on our debt? Donnie! Estimated between $10T and $15T of increased deficits over 10 years. So, we're already on track to be at about $25T debt by 2026. Donnie is ready to make that $36-40T! Hooray for fiscal responsibility from our "libertarians!"

[deeshopper]

 

Let's try to take out all four falsehoods in this quickly.

 

1. Neither China nor Russia were ever socialist. They were communist. China is now a state-driven/state-run capitalism. They are growing because of their state intervention (your friend, Donald, likes to point this out). They are not a true capitalist society yet. They are also growing so quickly in large part because their economy had been so small for so long. When your economy gets bigger, it's hard to grow as quickly. Either way, no one is advocating for communism. Socialism is different.

 

Thank you! That was really, really bothering me.

[dc.]

Great post and I'm sure he is getting those independents you mentioned. I'm independent in MD but will vote Libertrarian again, no more

RINOS for me but in the end the independents will make the difference. McCain got none while Mitt picked up a lot more and a lot more of

the Chrisitan vote which made the election a lot closer the second time. Michelle said it's going to be a lot closer this time folks.

 

Throw in more independents and Christian votes and Trump will win by a land slide.

 

We're for immigration by the way, just legal immigration.

 

Oh, the fallacies ... again!

 

So, is Trump getting independents right now? He certainly is getting some. But then again, independents make up about 40% of the electorate. Just like Bernie is getting a lot in the Dem primary because some are more democratic leaning (or even further left), Trump is getting some who lean right. Obama won against Romney 51% to 47% (though, far heavier to Obama electorally). So, no one wins "all" the independents. It's about winning a decent number of them. If Obama got his 30% dems and Romney got his 30% Reps... then Obama won about 55% of the independents to win the whole thing. That's a lot for sure, but it's not nearly "all."

 

So, will Trump get 55% of independents? No. As above... he seems to be maxing at 40-45% of anything. And that aligns with all other polls that say about 60% of people find him repulsive. So, he'll win his Rs. Probably less than the full 30% he should because, unlike your view above, the Christian voters don't all love him. And many others as well. And then he'll win a bunch of the Independents - but mainly those that already lean Right. But that's not by any means guaranteed to be 50%. Or even 40%. Really, we don't even know how many independents he's winning now.

 

 

 

As for immigration - whatever. H1Bs are legal and Trump wants to get rid of them. And being legal isn't the same thing as being just or morally right. For most of history, "immigrating" meant showing up and signing your name as you walked off the boat. Then we didn't like certain groups so we started capping their numbers. Then we capped all numbers. And now new groups are told "what's legal" as if it means it is right. In the end, I'm all for legal immigration too. But the fact is - we need more immigrants, not fewer. Demographically and economically, we need the workers. So fine, talk about the laws. The laws need to change. Moving on.

[dc.]

 

Thank you! That was really, really bothering me.

 

Most people walk away from these things. It's probably the smarter move. As a history and econ teacher though, I feel it is my moral duty to at least say "no" - even if I know it won't work.

[Spen]

LOL - Well, with your usual grumpiness and not seeing your facial and body

 

language I was just calling it out to be sure.

 

Thank goodness. I can't imagine being in the same room as you.

[thundercleetz]

While on the topic of Nazi Germany, has anyone seen The Man in High Castle on Amazon? Or read the book?

[papasmurfbell]

And when certain Republicans like Ryan try to stop it they get crucified by the DEMs and with a

sitting DEM in the WH they shut down the govt while Ryan gets the blame for that and they give

up and give them what they want. With $17TT debt and DEMs wanted to raise the ceiling for more

debt, that's exactly what happened.

 

You don't hear much about lowering the debt any more.

Can you explain why it is under dems that budgets shortfalls get smaller? There has been a little talked about policy since Nixon. While the gop is in office they spend like crazy and pass shortfalls onto the inevitable dem to deal with. At that point they point to dems as tax and spend but they didn't spend like crazy.

 

 

 

Let's try to take out all four falsehoods in this quickly.

 

1. Neither China nor Russia were ever socialist. They were communist. China is now a state-driven/state-run capitalism. They are growing because of their state intervention (your friend, Donald, likes to point this out). They are not a true capitalist society yet. They are also growing so quickly in large part because their economy had been so small for so long. When your economy gets bigger, it's hard to grow as quickly. Either way, no one is advocating for communism. Socialism is different.

2. If you are touting China's advances as a "capitalist" nation - please look at how that capitalism is fairing for their average citizen.

3. In 2015, China held $1.3T of our debt - that's less than 10% of our gross debt which is now closer to $19T. They sold most of it off recently because their economy is so weak and they have to use that foreign held debt to prop it up. They also cannot just "call in" their debt because that's not really how debt works - your bank cannot just ask you to pay your mortgage off in full one day because they don't like the loan anymore. Let's say it this way, if anyone were worried about debt in the real world, they wouldn't still be lending to us at record low interest rates.

4. The debt does NOT come from Medicare and Social Security. About 1/3 of the debt is owed TO those programs because we took it out to pay for other programs. Those programs are currently fully funded by your FICA taxes.

 

Meanwhile - way not to respond to the actual question. Despite having a higher GDP and being "better" - why is our awesome capitalist nation NOT able to produce students as bright or people who live as long as all those dreaded socialist nations in western europe? Because we're not really socialist at all right now. Social Security and Medicare are great programs, but they are the weakest of their kind in the free world.

Also now China is growing at about 8% and it is crippling their economy. They have become so accustomed to 20% growth that a solid growth rate isn't good enough. They have a huge housing bubble that is about to burst and could destroy their economy.

 

 

 

 

 

More falsehoods to dispel here... Dems never shut down the gov't. That was largely Ted Cruz, not Ryan as well, and it was because he was trying to attach a "defund Obamacare" provision to a budget.

 

No one has really gotten what they've wanted recently. Ryan wants huge tax cuts (how do those help the debt again?) and if you look at his spending cuts, they're pretty scary, but that's just me. But even his budget doesn't ever come close to actually balancing itself.

 

Lastly, the debt ceiling pays for debt already created - not for new debt. It's a silly system and we shouldn't even really need a "debt limit" but... think of it this way. You write yourself a budget for the month. The budget says you are going to earn $100, spend $200... so there's $100 deficit there. But you wrote it and it's kind of in stone, you can't change it now because you've promised that $200 out to people in advance. The debt ceiling is your credit card limit. If you need an extra $100 in limit, you can't say "no" after you've already given the money out. You have to say yes.

 

Congress - both Ds and Rs - have been passing budgets with insane deficits for decades. The debt limit says "we will pay for what we created." You can't say no after the fact.

 

Other fun facts... our debt ballooned early in the Obama administration. That's not great of course. But several TRILLION of that was literally just paying for the recession. We lost about half a trillion per year in tax revenue the first two years of the recession. Unless you're going to cut spending hugely in that moment - horrible idea, people need their social security and unemployment in that moment more than ever - that's going to create in debt. A lot of it.

 

Finally - for being so debt conscious, you know whose tax plan has the worst impact on our debt? Donnie! Estimated between $10T and $15T of increased deficits over 10 years. So, we're already on track to be at about $25T debt by 2026. Donnie is ready to make that $36-40T! Hooray for fiscal responsibility from our "libertarians!"

Those tax cuts they so love have a small sample set that should be a warning.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xliMwipXoiA

[Spen]

While on the topic of Nazi Germany, has anyone seen The Man in High Castle on Amazon? Or read the book?

I just saw the first episode. It was just ok but I want to see the rest. It sounds interesting.