2015 Offseason

[cravnravn]

No one is knocking crush's door down with an offer, and our 150 MIL offer is off the table.

[dc.]

Not officially off the table, but we said "we're continuing our search and if we fill the hole/spend the cash before you say yes, then sorry."

 

I think it is the right play.

 

I am not convinced he'll get more elsewhere-at least not 25m more. And I doubt he'll get more time. I would definitely prefer a starting pitcher though.

 

I also think Davis is thinking long and hard about production in another ball park. Not that it affects his pay anytime soon, but I think it's a pride factor

 

Love our rule five pick up. Expected to make opening day line up, I'm betting lead off even unless we get Span or someone similar.

[thundercleetz]

Jason Heyward gets 8-years $184M from the Cubs. Supposedly he rejected $200M deals from the Nats and Cards because the Cubs gave him insane player opt-out clauses after three and four years. Risky contract for the Cubs. Heyward is only 26-years old and plays outstanding defense, as well as gets on base at a high clip. However, he is an enormous guy that hits for no power. The Cubs are going to place him in CF because Solar and Schwarber are awful defensive players. You know Heyward's defense will decline over time because he is a big guy who hasn't grown into his 6'5" frame yet. Take into account there is no power premium (and it will likely even decline worse because of his awkward swing), and this has the makings of a bad contract. I think he is a similar player to Nick Markakis or Carl Crawford, and not a Bryce Harper or Mike Trout.

[cravnravn]

My fear for this season, we didn't replace Cruz's numbers last year, how we replacing Crush's numbers? I just hope to hell we are not going back to battling Tampa for the fifth spot in the Al East.

[dc.]

We actually did replace Cruz's numbers power wise... Our offensive trouble continues to be obp and moving guys around the bases.

 

Crush was responsible for a lot if runs by hr... But how many guys were left on base with his K's? Replacing his power may not be easy, but higher average and lower K's could lead someone else to get similar rbi numbers and leadership. See the Royals with guys like Morales and Hosmer.

 

It would be pretty incredible to lose the hr leader in consecutive seasons.

 

And if course remember, it's not just about this year. I still worry about this contract offer to Davis in years 34,35,36... K's will likely only go up.

[papasmurfbell]

Agree DC

[cravnravn]

We actually did replace Cruz's numbers power wise... Our offensive trouble continues to be obp and moving guys around the bases.

Crush was responsible for a lot if runs by hr... But how many guys were left on base with his K's? Replacing his power may not be easy, but higher average and lower K's could lead someone else to get similar rbi numbers and leadership. See the Royals with guys like Morales and Hosmer.

It would be pretty incredible to lose the hr leader in consecutive seasons.

And if course remember, it's not just about this year. I still worry about this contract offer to Davis in years 34,35,36... K's will likely only go up.

How can you say that, we came nowhere close to replacing Cruz's numbers

[cravnravn]

 

Then I guess we didn't replace Andy Millers production

[dc.]

How can you say that, we came nowhere close to replacing Cruz's numbers

 

Did any individual replace him? No.

 

But we scored more runs and hit more homeruns - as a team - than we did in 2014. Davis hit 21 more. Manny hit 23 more. Pearce, much as I dislike him, hit more than Markakis had.

 

So again, it wasn't exactly like power was our issue. Nor was Cruz's 270 avg or 333 obp irreplaceable. (In fairness, both were above average for us this year, but neither is stellar in a league setting)

 

Pitching. On base.

[dc.]

 

Then I guess we didn't replace Andy Millers production

 

Well considering we only had him for two months...

 

Here's the real rub... we scored more runs last year than 2014 (only by about 10, but more). We allowed 100 more runs last year than in 2014.

 

Wonder where the wins went.

 

But regarding Miller more directly - we still had a stellar bullpen last year. But Tillman, Gonzalez, ... it wasn't a pretty year for our starters.

[dc.]

Almost forgot... poor Bud Norris in 2015. Ugh.

 

Meanwhile, our core bullpen guys - Britton, Brach, O'Day, Matusz - All ERAs sub 3. Two with ERAS sub 2. And Givens coming up with a sub-2 ERA as well.

[thundercleetz]

O's sign Korean LF Hyun-soo Kim. Average defender and limited to LF, but he hit .326/.428/.541 with 26 doubles, 28 homers and 121 RBI. He walked 101 times and struck out only 63 times. Sure, that was in the KBO, but Jung-ho Kang had an outstanding year for the Pirates. So a successful transition is possible.

 

Regardless, Kim, bringing back LJ Hoes, drafting Joey Rickard in the Rule 5 draft, the message is clear: Duquette and Buck want OBP.

 

I am still holding out hope for re-signing Crush. That way Trumbo is the full time DH. However, if we can't sign Crush, Justin Upton would be a nice fixture in RF, and hopefully one of Kim, Hoes or Rickard can pan out in LF. Trumbo and Trey Mancini could be our 1B/DH combo.

[dc.]

Love the Kim signing. Huge. Cheap. I'm expecting a lot. Kang did so well in Pit and Kim's numbers are better down the board.

[Spen]

So they signed a communist. I'm out.

[thundercleetz]

Looks like it's Davis or bust for the Orioles:

 

http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/orioles/bs-sp-orioles-free-agent-spending-20151217-story.html

 

Scouting report on Kim from a KBO analyst based in Seoul:

 

http://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/orioles/blog/bal-a-korean-baseball-analyst-breaks-down-hyunsoo-kims-game-20151217-story.html

 

Says he was an Alex Gordon-like player in the KBO and was a top-10 player in that league.

[thundercleetz]

One team I am worried about in the Chris Davis sweepstakes is Houston. Houston had a great season with a young team and is at the point in their rebuilding process where they can supplement their young talent with a big name free agent, to put them over the hump. They are a big market team with a clear payroll, and showed last offseason that they are ready to spend.

 

The Astros DFA'd their first baseman Carter, so they have a need at the positions. Plus, CD is from Longview, Texas, only 211 miles from Houston. CD lives in Arlington, Texas in the offseason.

[thundercleetz]

Ironically, Jon Heyman of SI posted an article the other day saying Chris Davis is out of the Astros's price range:

 

Angelos may simply fear bidding against himself. But he can't know if Davis has anything comparable or close -- he'd fit the Angels, Cardinals or Astros (though Los Angeles/Anaheim and St. Louis people have downplayed that possibility, and no one believes Houston would pony up that sort of money; one Astros-connected person said, succinctly, "not in our plans" about Davis). The Blue Jays and Red Sox are two more teams that have been tied to Davis, and agent Scott Boras recently met with Hal Steinbrenner in Tampa, though that may be an even bigger longshot than the others.

 

http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/writer/jon-heyman/25433117/inside-baseball-13-big-free-agents-still-looking-for-deals-more-mlb-notes

[papasmurfbell]

Houston is doing this via the farm and not FA. Exactly what the O's should be doing.

[thundercleetz]

Houston is doing this via the farm and not FA. Exactly what the O's should be doing.

I agree that the farm is key. However, both the Red Sox and Cubs have proven you can supplement a strong farm system with the right FA acquisitions. Both the Red Sox and Cubs are loaded with young talent, but have chosen to spend in the right areas.

 

If the Astros signed Chris Davis they would be an instant AL favorite. Baseball prospects can be like lottery tickets. As loaded as a farm system the Astros have, there is no guarantee any of their hitters will turnout as good as Chris Davis will be over the next four years or so. The Astros made a deep playoff run this season, nothing is guaranteed in baseball. Their window to win is now.

[papasmurfbell]

Except I only expect CD to be worth anything for about 2 yrs. After that he will be a liability with all the strikeouts.

[papasmurfbell]

Like the O's they can't have a contract that drags them down.

[thundercleetz]

Except I only expect CD to be worth anything for about 2 yrs. After that he will be a liability with all the strikeouts.

Fair point. No one can predict the future. Power hitting first basemen in good shape tend to age better than any other position. Texeira is still raking for the Yankees after he changed his diet and starting taking care of his body. CD takes excellent care of his body. However, if the O's have any doubt CD won't be productive for the next four years, don't re-sign him.

 

That is the risk. And you are right, the risk is disproportionately more for a mid-market team like the O's than for a big market team like the Red Sox or Cubs. But if CD produces like he did last year, the O's will be contenders for the immediate future. Big risk, big reward.

[papasmurfbell]

I just have to go with the stats of players in older age. CD is already a SO machine. That bat just slows down a little and then the flyouts will go up and the HRs will drop and the SOs continue. Do you think the Yanks are happy with the Tex contract now?

 

Do it the way KC and the Astros have been doing it with all farm and you will stay good much longer. I also expect both to trade off parts for large returns in prospects to stay up and only pay key ppl.

[thundercleetz]

I just have to go with the stats of players in older age. CD is already a SO machine. That bat just slows down a little and then the flyouts will go up and the HRs will drop and the SOs continue. Do you think the Yanks are happy with the Tex contract now?

 

Do it the way KC and the Astros have been doing it with all farm and you will stay good much longer. I also expect both to trade off parts for large returns in prospects to stay up and only pay key ppl.

Yes, I do think the Yankees are happy with Tex's contract.

 

As for the Royals, they are built more similar to us than the Astros. We will see the next couple seasons whether they start selling off or keeping guys up until the end of their contracts. So far they have been buyers, not sellers...

 

I agree with your skepticism on CD. However, if we are not going to re-sign CD we need to trade everyone and start over. Given Angelos is 80-some years old, that's not going to happen, and he'd rather be in that mediocre area than start over.

[dc.]

I think the longer CD sits on this market... the better the odds are for the O's. Seems to me, more and more, like Duquette is calling Boras' bluff... "You think you'll find more elsewhere? Good luck."

 

Meanwhile, read some stuff about O's going after Denard Span. Injury questions, but he's exactly what we need to lock down the other OF spot... but O's are apparently very weary of going beyond one year. I get it, but sometimes you have to take small gambles. Three years cannot be seen as the end of the world.

 

And ... WHERE'S THE PITCHING?! Kazmir was just taken at a bargain, I'd argue. 16m per year. Chen will get at least that for an extra 3 years. How are we not in that game?