KC Series

[thundercleetz]

The O's are supper slow. They may not be stealing but they are manufacturing runs by threatening to.

Exactly. I know I underestimated the Royals offense. Our pitchers are walking too many guys and allowing too many hits early in the inning.

[papasmurfbell]

If the O's had some speed they could cause the same problems. Now they just pitch them to keep off the long ball.

[dc.]

As good as the royals have been this series, they haven't been this good all year - even with their speed.

 

Papa, at what point is a sample size big enough to say a team is what it is... 162 games is probably more than big enough. It's hard to saya teams playing over their heads for that long.

 

Meanwhile, saying a team isn't built for the playoffs is as easy as saying they won't win the world series... You'd be right 29 times out of 30 every year. There is no "built for the playoffs" - you are who you are.

 

The O's aren't missing these two games because the series is any different than another. As Cleetz said, we're a few bad defensive plays away from being up 2-0. And I'd argue with Davis and Manny in, those plays are made. We're a few runners left on away from being up 2-0.

 

The Royals have played some damn good, nearly perfect, ball the last ten days. But they are no better built for a win than anyone else still in it - if so, where they go all season with this offense?

 

Eric Hosmer hits a broken bat jam shot just over Hardy yesterday for 2 runs. But that's built for the playoffs baseball, whereas our ball getting caught on a dive by Gordon is the world returning to normal. What a load.

[papasmurfbell]

The Royals are built for speed. That is much more useful in the playoffs than waiting fro a good HR pitch.

[dc.]

Except when it's not. The Yankees and Red Sox have rarely been speed focused teams but have had some decent success in recent years, I'd argue.

 

Power over speed won us 96 games. The ideas that it doesn't anymore are just as silly as when Joe Morgan tried to argue that money ball didn't work because it didn't run the plays he liked. Each team wins in its own way, and as long as it works what's the question?

[papasmurfbell]

Power tends to be exposed in the PO's. You don't get to 4tha nd 5th starters. You always get the best pitching. The Yanks have not been that great for a long time. They have been just above mediocre for over 10 yrs now.

[dc.]

All I'm saying is that even when they were good, you didn't hear about the speed of those teams.

 

The Giants and Cardinals had the lowest steel totals in baseball along with three Orioles.

 

The Orioles haven't needed the home run this series - it certainly would help, but that's not what's losing them these games. To act as if this team is losing because it's not scoring runs its silly. And in the end, we're taking about two games decided in the ninth or later...

 

But let's chalk it up as playing over their heads for the last 100 games of the season. Not the last month, the last four months were apparently luck. And the Royals were just unlucky that whole time - shucks, their bats were just not getting it done because who knows. But Lorenzo Cain is suddenly going to be the next 400 hitter.

[papasmurfbell]

I think Buck pushed the right buttons durin the season. Those buttons have been taken away from him now. Normally a mang is good for say 5 wins a season. I would say Buck was good for at least 15 this yr.

[dc.]

I agree and disagree. I think Buck was worth a lot this year - and really every year with us so far. What I don't know is why or how you think that changed in the last ten days? The bullpen arms are faltering a bit, certainly... but that has both happened at times all year and is not something that's really down to Buck.

 

I'll end it here because we just disagree - and honestly, your whole tone returns to "they weren't this good" which I think you know is just bull - trying to grasp at reasons to say you were right about previously wrong predictions.

 

But I still say that close games are decided by close plays - and just a few of those have gone against the O's this series. Pearce at first. Hosmer's bloop. The ump in game one (oh man that strike zone was atrocious for both sides). Gordon's catch in game 2. Flaherty's error. Little things that wound up with big changes - Pearce's drop was three runs. Hosmer's bloop was two. Gordon's catch was two. Flaherty's error was one directly and at least one more. And that hardly counts the missed chances the O's have actually had at the plate. If even one of those changes in these first two games, it's a 1-1 series and we're not having this convo - though I'd assume you'd be arguing how it should be 0-2 because that little bloop for the O's didn't really count as good baseball, etc etc.

 

They're a far from perfect team and have played two far from perfect games. I'm not saying they will improve in the next game (or any of what could be 5 more)... but I am saying that two close losses playing not-their-best is not an indicator that the rest of the year was just something special. And that in the next game, two or more, we're just one of those plays away from a win.

 

 

I will admit this - Jeremy Guthrie scares me because the Orioles can NEVER hit their former players... Guthrie, Chen, Hammel, Arrieta... man oh man. I hope we blow him up though.

[Spen]

I said they weren't built for the playoffs. I also said that Buck got more out of the team than was reasonable. How long can that possibly last? They should be happy they made it so far.

You always let us know what's going to happen. Thanks.

[papasmurfbell]

http://www.nytimes.com/2014/10/13/sports/baseball/thieving-royals-keep-things-moving.html

Thieving Royals Keep Things Moving

Mercury was the Roman god of, among other things, trickery and thieves, making him the perfect symbol for baseball’s stolen base, even before you consider his winged hat and sandals. His erratic nature — the inspiration for the word “mercurial” — also fits when you consider how baseball’s fleetest teams have fared in postseasons past.

The go-go Kansas City Royals are the latest team to remind fans what a terror a team can be when it keep things moving. Like the 2003 Florida Marlins, who ran their way to a World Series title, the Royals have people talking as if a time machine to the days of Ty Cobb has appeared in the Kauffman Stadium outfield.

The aggressive approach of those Marlins, led by a 1-2 punch of Juan Pierre and Luis Castillo, drew so much attention that George Steinbrenner was said to insist on signing Kenny Lofton the following off-season to add a similar dynamic to the Yankees.

Pierre did not shy away from describing his importance during his team’s unexpected run.

“Just to put them uneasy, that’s my job — to create havoc,” Pierre told reporters after Game 1 of the 2003 World Series, in which he had gone 2 for 3 with a walk, a hit-by-pitch and a stolen base. “It opens up the field for me. I accomplished what I wanted to do.”

Speed was a huge factor in that postseason, with the Marlins stretching for extra bases and keeping pitchers guessing, but it did not show up in the form of stolen bases. In 17 games, the Marlins stole eight bases and were caught six times. The supposedly sedentary Yankees, who Steinbrenner apparently felt needed a boost of speed, led all playoff teams with 11 steals in 14 attempts.

That is the nature of stolen bases. Except for truly great base stealers, the statistic is heavily influenced by game situations and opposing catchers, meaning steals can elude even the fastest teams and players if things do not break just right. Just ask the 1985 St. Louis Cardinals, who stole an incredible 314 bases during the regular season but swiped just eight in the postseason and ended up losing in the World Series to the Royals.

The 1914 Philadelphia Athletics stole 231 bases in the regular season but managed just two while being swept by the Boston Braves in the World Series. Conversely, the 2008 Tampa Bay Rays, a team that stole less than half as many bases as the 1985 Cardinals during the regular season, set a major league record with 24 steals in a single postseason. (The Rays did have one more playoff series than the Cardinals, though.)

While one of baseball’s most exciting plays, the stolen base has not proved much of a bellwether for a team’s success in the regular season or the postseason. Since 1920, when the home run began to replace the stolen base as baseball’s biggest weapon, 169 teams have stolen 150 or more bases in a season, but 128 of those teams did not qualify for postseason play, including the 1976 Oakland Athletics, who set a post-dead-ball-era record with 341 steals. In that same time span, just 12 teams with 150 or more steals went on to win the World Series.

The Royals have been remarkably consistent in terms of stolen bases, if not wins, in recent seasons. The 2014 team stole 153 bases on the way to 89 wins, which should seem familiar because they stole the same amount last season while winning 86 games. In what may seem like a bookkeeping error, they also stole 153 in 2011, but they won just 71 games.

Unlike many of their speedy predecessors, the Royals have not abandoned the strategy in this postseason, tying a playoff record with seven steals in the wild-card game against Oakland and continuing their thievery in their American League division series by stealing another five bases over three games against the Los Angeles Angels.

Still, just as Mercury came and went, the American League Championship Series has been a different story for the Royals’ running game. In two games, both wins, Kansas City has one stolen base in three attempts. It could get worse should they advance to the World Series, where they could face Yadier Molina of the Cardinals, widely considered baseball’s best catcher.

Speed will be a factor for Kansas City regardless of how many bases the team steals, though, as it was for the 2003 Marlins.

And as long as the Royals keep winning, the long-suffering fans of Kansas City are unlikely to complain about any shift in strategy.

[dc.]

Two thoughts - no one disagrees that speed can be deadly. It's just no more deadly than any other weapon.

 

And it's nice for a paper to pick up their mantle after the fact.

[cravnravn]

Speed kills, we've already picked on off at first and threw another out at second cause he over slid the bag.

 

Weather looks crappy again in KC, and after the rain goes away its supposed to get blustery and colder.

[Spen]

Speed is great. One of the best things about baseball is that there are many ways to achieve success.

 

If we win one of those 2 games some writers would be writing about the Royals running into outs.

 

I can't be mad about us having bases loaded and not getting many runs. That's the way they have been all year, so I don't expect that to change. The defense and pitchers suddenly unable to find the strike zone bother me.

 

Not over yet though.

[GrubberRaven]

Britton depends on that sinker and he's not getting the calls. Frustrating.

[varaven45]

Speed is great. One of the best things about baseball is that there are many ways to achieve success.

 

If we win one of those 2 games some writers would be writing about the Royals running into outs.

 

I can't be mad about us having bases loaded and not getting many runs. That's the way they have been all year, so I don't expect that to change. The defense and pitchers suddenly unable to find the strike zone bother me.

 

Not over yet though.

 

 

Agreed on our year long lack of productions w/ the bases loaded. Its been all year long and Buck and Co have somehow taken this team to the ALCS.

Its a really good team and, as a fan, I have thoroughly the team and their passion. At the same, our poor situational hitting, which we've observed all season, is now magnified in

the ALCS. On the other hand, KC has put on a situational hitting clinic and their bullpen has been light out. Sprinkle in their momentum and fearless attitude, KC is just a damn tough out, for anyone.

 

One last thought. The loss of Weiters, Machado, and Davis cannot be overstated or overlooked. Its a different series, esp with the situational hitting, with 2 out of these guys in the O's lineup.

Maybe not enough to overcome KC but you can sure as hell bet we are scoring more runs with those guys in the lineup. Unfortunately, well never know.

[dc.]

Re: Britton... In that first game the problem was part lack of calls but more the bunting attempts by the Royals. The sinker is supposed to miss the zone, but if they aren't planning to swing you've got no reason to throw it.

[dc.]

Couldn't score regardless of style... Couldn't hit period, despite getting Guthrie to throw a bit.

 

And still just not sure how we defend the bloop.

[varaven45]

You can stick a fork in us.

[cravnravn]

Tiny sliver of hope left, we got the pitching from Chen but no run support for him. And DC, you hit it,the dam bloop hits are very frustrating to watch.

[Spen]

 

I'm just glad such a nice group of guys are going to the series!

[GrubberRaven]

These guys are d-bags

[Spen]

These guys are d-bags

 

 

They really are. In baseball, win or lose, I very rarely get annoyed by the other team. This time I am.

[dc.]

Hosmer has really been the guy that's gotten to me, but some of the others are pretty childish too.

 

Yost is also pretty sad to watch... I like Buck's cool demeanor much more the more I watch other managers.

[varaven45]

KC will have their glory this postseason and be a one and done team for sure. Nobody has really taken them seriously this postseason.

Next year, they will come back to earth and be a marginal playoff team. Another Florida Marlins team from last decade.