Frustrated Team

[varaven45]

Max, Fathet Damien must have shown up, and the exorcism was a success. Os win, O's win Os win !

[varaven45]

Amazingly, we score 4 runs off arguably the ALs hottest pitcher on Sunday; then can't score squat off Os castoff Marty Feldman tonight.

[dc.]

Haven't been able to touch Feldman since he left the O's. Not that you're going to win on one run, but hate when we give up the lead right after we take it.

 

Mean while, the "HitParades" continues...

[GrubberRaven]

This team is not fun to watch this year.

[varaven45]

Agreed . Somehow the team needs to rediscover its mojo and soon

[papasmurfbell]

They should have traded Weit and Davis after 2013. They could have had a lot if young talent actually here and helping.

[cravnravn]

Agreed . Somehow the team needs to rediscover its mojo and soon

Calm down Va, go back and look at last year's record, we finished 30 games over 500, despite playing 500 ball April,May and June. We put it together from July on...

http://www.baseball-reference.com/teams/BAL/2014-schedule-scores.shtml

 

This team is a well seasoned race horse, the good ones hang mid lack and make their move at the 1/2 mile pole. I like where we are sitting, 2 1/2 off the lead.

[Spen]

They should have traded Weit and Davis after 2013. They could have had a lot if young talent actually here and helping.

I was off. I expected this weeks ago. Your "should of" posts usually arrive much quicker. I think Ray Rice was the next day. You're getting older and slower. Sad

 

:-)

[papasmurfbell]

It doesn't make it any less true.

[Spen]

It doesn't make it any less true.

As it's your opinion it doesn't make it any more true either. The season is far from over and one or both of them could contribute in a meaningful way.

 

Your forgot to bitch about JJ being re-signed.

[papasmurfbell]

I said Davis had an outlier in 2013. If you think that was the norm how do you explain the last 2 seasons? Also Weit got hurt and it looks like he will not have time to get hot before the trade deadline.

[thundercleetz]

I said Davis had an outlier in 2013. If you think that was the norm how do you explain the last 2 seasons? Also Weit got hurt and it looks like he will not have time to get hot before the trade deadline.

I don't care about not trading Wieters or Davis. We'll get draft picks like we did with Nellie. Baseball is different than football because prospects and draft picks are such a crapshoot and the amount of development time is long and costly.

 

What gets me mad is we invest the money in a prospect, take the time to develop them, they don't produce for us. We trade them only to have them become great for another team. See Arrieta. We gave this guy every chance in the world and he was absolutely terrible for us. We trade him to the Cubs and he becomes a star. He's under team control for two more years. Bad trading a cheap guy under control with talent, no matter if he's a bust or not.

 

Eduardo Rodriguez pitched a gem for the Sox last night. Only 22-years old from the DR. We always talk about signing these international prospects and when we finally get a good one we trade him. Granted, Rodriguez was a B-level prospect for us and Andrew Miller could have won us a World Series.

 

It's frustrating, we trade Arrieta, keep Matusz. We trade Rodriguez, keep Bundy. The guys we keep don't work out and the guys we let go become better. Hindsight is 20-20, but man does it seem like we have terrible luck with pitching prospects! There is definitely some sort of organization problem with pitching instruction.

 

Looking at our current roster, there is no home grown talent outside of can't miss guys like Machado and Wieters. Duquette is great at finding other team's leftovers and under the radar free agents. But we have a big problem with developing home grown stars, much less serviceable players.

[papasmurfbell]

I look at the Bedard trade. That just kept paying dividends. We should have some the same to Weit and Davis so they could payoff longer.

[cravnravn]

Here we go, hosting the Rays, its time to take over 2nd place.

[Spen]

Here we go, hosting the Rays, its time to take over 2nd place.

Fantastic pitching tonight. O'Day scared me but came through.

[Spen]

Excellent!

[dc.]

I still have to say that trading Davis is far from an obvious choice, even in hindsight.

 

First, his 2013 campaign is called a "fluke" but I'd disagree on two fronts:

 

1. his 2012 campaign was stellar in 100 fewer plate appearances. He hit 33 hr and drive in 85 runs despite shaky playing time early. In today's game, I'd take the 33hr and 270 average without hesitation. 2013 was huge, but people act like that had to be repeated for him to have value. That's just false.

 

2. Given that he's really only had one season since that 2013 campaign, it's hard to shrug and say it's never happening again. His now 12 hr are on pace for more than 30 - really pushing 40 - again. His average is lower than before, but recovering, and it could still go anyway, like the power. But let's just jump and say 2013 was farcical and 2014 is valid because it makes the argument better for your cause. The reality is that 2012 to 2013 is more the player Davis always projected to be early on.

 

Finally, you still miss context, papa in a different way. This team has rarely had an anchor bat at 1b or dh in there last 20 years. Where do we get one? We bet on prospects and gamble on potential. But even you have to acknowledge that, especially in baseball, you won't hit more than 1/4 on a prospect and even that but is more likely to be a single than a hr.

 

Just like Flacco and the Ravens. What alternative exists? Don't extend Joe on principle or whatever, fine. But how many qbs can replace that? It's not just about demand, you have to factor in the lack of supply.

[cravnravn]

How bout that JJ Hardy

[cravnravn]

Congrats to Buck,400 wins as O's manager

[Spen]

It was before the interweb so I had to post it on cork boards in grocery stores but I told you all we should have traded Ben McDonald right after we drafted him.

[papasmurfbell]

I still have to say that trading Davis is far from an obvious choice, even in hindsight.

 

First, his 2013 campaign is called a "fluke" but I'd disagree on two fronts:

 

1. his 2012 campaign was stellar in 100 fewer plate appearances. He hit 33 hr and drive in 85 runs despite shaky playing time early. In today's game, I'd take the 33hr and 270 average without hesitation. 2013 was huge, but people act like that had to be repeated for him to have value. That's just false.

 

2. Given that he's really only had one season since that 2013 campaign, it's hard to shrug and say it's never happening again. His now 12 hr are on pace for more than 30 - really pushing 40 - again. His average is lower than before, but recovering, and it could still go anyway, like the power. But let's just jump and say 2013 was farcical and 2014 is valid because it makes the argument better for your cause. The reality is that 2012 to 2013 is more the player Davis always projected to be early on.

 

Finally, you still miss context, papa in a different way. This team has rarely had an anchor bat at 1b or dh in there last 20 years. Where do we get one? We bet on prospects and gamble on potential. But even you have to acknowledge that, especially in baseball, you won't hit more than 1/4 on a prospect and even that but is more likely to be a single than a hr.

 

Just like Flacco and the Ravens. What alternative exists? Don't extend Joe on principle or whatever, fine. But how many qbs can replace that? It's not just about demand, you have to factor in the lack of supply.

Davis hasn't come close to .270 since 2013. His strikeouts are way to high and really do hinder the team. But you make my point. I said he would never repeat his 2013 season. Many thought he had arrived. That means he has the highest value he will ever have. That is when you trade him.

 

With Joe you trade him. There were plenty of teams that would have grabbed him.

[dc.]

But "their highest value" is only half of the equation. The other half is actually replacing the production.

 

He may never hit 50 HRs again. He may not hit 40 - though not many guys in the league do these days. The question still remains, can trading away the 50 HRs actually return even the 35 HRs we can maybe expect?

 

As for 270 - you again say "since 2013" as if it's been more than a season. It's been a season and 1/4. He could easily be "near 270" at various points this year. I think 250 is more likely.

 

And so we come to this - when you trade 270 and 50 HRs away, are you actually able to replace 250 and 35 HRs? With Joe, when you trade his highest value away, are you actually able to replace even his average value?

 

The answer in both cases is not so easily "yes." What you are likely to get is 3-5 guys, probably only 1-2 with even the potential to be 250-35.

 

The flaw in the theory remains that you assume that the trade will always be a good one and will always pay appropriate dividends. But we know that is not the case. Bedard was the exception, not the rule. And Bedard happened when this team was bad and needing many pieces. You predicted last year the team would flounder. Instead, they made the ALCS with 20 more wins than you expected early in the season. So why do we trust such assumptions ... we do we take them as given and certain?

[papasmurfbell]

Or you could get a 1st baseman that hits 25 bombs and bats 280 that has no time towards FA. Plus add in a SS prospect to replace Hardy when the time comes. Finally add a solid middle relief. To me that would more than make up for what Davis produces. You may not be getting 30 bombs but you are close. The relief can take some bombs away from other teams and when Hardy is done which I believe to be sooner rather than later it is done with little in the way of hiccups. Oh and BTW that SS prospect could have been playing this yr and Hardy could have been allowed to walk.

[thundercleetz]

Or you could get a 1st baseman that hits 25 bombs and bats 280 that has no time towards FA. Plus add in a SS prospect to replace Hardy when the time comes. Finally add a solid middle relief. To me that would more than make up for what Davis produces. You may not be getting 30 bombs but you are close. The relief can take some bombs away from other teams and when Hardy is done which I believe to be sooner rather than later it is done with little in the way of hiccups. Oh and BTW that SS prospect could have been playing this yr and Hardy could have been allowed to walk.

Who are these prospects you are talking about?

 

Watch out Chris Davis is getting hot! A .818 OPS now!

[papasmurfbell]

Who would have thought all of the return for Bedard?